Wolf Richter: Bring on Higher Oil Prices: They’ll Boost the US Economy. Powell Sees it Too. A New Experience for the US


This post is by Lambert Strether from naked capitalism


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The plunge in oil prices since August has caused the oil-and-gas sector to get skittish with capital expenditures this year, and Powell picked up on that. Investment in the US shale sector has a big impact on the real economy.

Real Time Economics: Factory Weakness Keeps Central Banks in Play


This post is by Brian Blackstone from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

Good morning. Brian Blackstone here to take you through the latest on Europe’s factory slowdown, the most recent central-bank decisions and U.S. corporate-profit repatriation. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Dark Clouds

Factory output has weakened in a number of key economies, a worrying sign for the global economy that strengthens the case for fresh stimulus from central banks, Paul Hannon writes. Europe has suffered the sharpest turnaround, and there is little relief in sight, according to a June survey of purchasing managers conducted by data firm IHS Markit. The purchasing managers index for manufacturing rose to 47.8 from 47.7 in May, but a reading below 50.0 points still points to a decline in activity. Readings for the three months Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Factory Weakness Keeps Central Banks in Play”

Real Time Economics: The Fed Didn’t Cut…Yet


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The Fed didn’t give President Trump an interest-rate cut, women are working more and sleeping less, and investors are squeezing first-time buyers out of the housing market. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

An Ounce of Prevention

Federal Reserve officials held interest rates steady but suggested they would cut them in the months ahead if the economic outlook doesn’t improve, Nick Timiraos reports.

Parsing the Fed: How the June Statement Changed From May


This post is by Becky Bowers from Real Time Economics


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The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the June statement compared with May.
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = “0” ]
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Real Time Economics: Trump Eases Tensions with China, Ratchets Up Pressure on Fed


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

It’s Fed day! The central bank is under unusal pressure as it considers cutting rates, U.S.-China trade talks are back on track and American employers are getting stingier with bonuses. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Trump and Xi to Meet

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to meet in Japan next week, lifting financial markets and spurring hopes for a trade truce, Vivian Salama, William Mauldin and Josh Zumbrun report. Both sides are under pressure to get back to the bargaining table.

Pros and Cons of a Rate Cut


This post is by Peter Boockvar from The Big Picture


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Peter is the CIO of Bookmark Advisors, an asset management firm and the Editor of The Boock Report, a macro economic and market newsletter.    Let’s use our weekly “Succinct Summation” format to consider the pros and cons of a rate cut: Pros: 1. US economic growth has slowed, mostly driven by softness in manufacturing,…

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The post Pros and Cons of a Rate Cut appeared first on The Big Picture.

Real Time Economics: Fed Forced to Weigh Mixed Economic Signals


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The European Central Bank suddenly sounds a lot more dovish. Will the Fed follow? Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Losing Patience

Federal Reserve officials meet Tuesday and Wednesday recognizing they may need to cut interest rates should the economic outlook darken. The question is whether that moment has arrived or if they need more information before deciding, Nick Timiraos writes.

Real Time Economics: The Fed Weighs a Rate Cut and the White House Considers a Tariff Increase


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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The U.S. Trade Representative opens hearings on new China tariffs, the Fed has a tough task on communication this week and corporate bond investors don’t seem too worried about the economy. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the day’s economic news. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Like a Good Neighbor

The Federal Reserve usually cuts interest rates because bad things are happening. Sometimes, though, it cuts rates because the risk of bad things has gone up—like taking out an insurance policy, Nick Timiraos writes.

Real Time Economics: U.S. and China Talk Tough on Trade


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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U.S. consumer spending and industrial production numbers are in focus this morning, the White House is threatening consequences if China’s president doesn’t meet with President Trump, and Washington has learned to love debt. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Trade or Consequences

The White House’s top economic adviser said President Trump could take further action against China if President Xi Jinping doesn’t agree to a meeting at the Group of 20 summit in Japan later this month, William Mauldin reports.

Real Time Economics: Low Inflation Could Allow the Fed to Cut Rates. But Should It?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

Low inflation gives the Fed space to cut interest rates, the U.S. budget deficit is ballooning, and investors are wary of big Western economies. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

No Price Pressure

U.S. inflation slowed in May, restrained by weakening price pressures almost across the board. The consumer-price index, which measures what Americans pay for household goods and services, rose just 1.8% from a year earlier despite a strong labor market and moderate wage gains. The report is the last broad look at inflation before Federal Reserve officials meet Tuesday and Wednesday. Policy makers are debating whether to cut interest rates to bolster a Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Low Inflation Could Allow the Fed to Cut Rates. But Should It?”

Real Time Economics: Just How Tight Is the Labor Market?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The number of U.S. job openings has outpaced the number of unemployed for 14 straight months, the Fed is trying not to listen to the president, and gasoline prices are falling just in time for a trip to the beach. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Career Opportunities

The number of job openings exceeded the number of unemployed Americans by the largest margin on record in April, signaling difficulty finding workers in a tight market, Sarah Chaney reports.

Real Time Economics: Employers Tap the Brakes


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The May employment report wasn’t pretty. The U.S. added just 75,000 jobs and the prior two months were revised down by a combined 75,000. Investors may expect the softer jobs data, alongside some other so-so economic indicators and heightened global trade tensions, to push the Federal Reserve toward cutting interest rates. Jeff Sparshott and Greg Ip here to take you through some of the numbers.

A Reason to Worry, a Little

May’s surprisingly soft 75,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls is, fundamentally, fine: it’s about what the U.S.’s slow-growing population can sustain over the long run. Claims for unemployment insurance and confidence surveys point to solid labor demand inconsistent with a recession. Yet there are reasons to worry, a little:

Market Rally on Rate Cut Hopes


This post is by Barry Ritholtz from The Big Picture


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Hold aside the obvious contradiction for a moment — Why does the greatest economy ever necessitate rate cuts? — and consider for a moment the effective jawboning at the Federal Reserve. POTUS on down have been demanding lower rates, which markets like, and the President equates higher stock prices with successful ratings. Moving the Fed…

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The post Market Rally on Rate Cut Hopes appeared first on The Big Picture.

Real Time Economics: The Fed Thinks About Cutting Rates, Jobs Report in Focus


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The Fed and the European Central Bank are thinking about rate cuts, tariffs are still looming for Mexico, and we’ll all be watching to see what today’s jobs report says about the economy. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key economic developments from around the world. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

As Soon as June?

The Federal Reserve has some difficult choices. A month ago, Chairman Jerome Powell played down speculation of a rate cut this summer. Now officials face a darker economic outlook and heightened trade tensions, making one possible—if not at their meeting on June 18-19, then in July or later, Nick Timiraos reports.

Real Time Economics: Fed Promises to Ride to the Rescue


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The Fed wants the expansion to keep going and going and going, employers need to draw more workers off the labor market’s sidelines, and China is warning its citizens away from visiting the U.S. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Fed to Markets: We Got Your Back

Federal Reserve officials are watching the recent escalation in trade tensions. And if those tensions cause the economy to deteriorate, they could respond by cutting interest rates, Nick Timiraos reports.

Real Time Economics: What’s the Biggest Threat to the U.S. Economy?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath looks at threats to the 10-year expansion, U.S. factories are flashing some warning signals and Australia became the largest developed economy to cut interest rates so far this year. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Keep on Truckin’

Economies don’t just wear down and peter out. Shocks and bad policy decisions knock them off course. The WSJ’s Jon Hilsenrath looks at what’s going right, and what could go wrong, as the U.S. expansion reaches its 10-year mark this month—and (probably) becomes the longest on record in July.

Real Time Economics: Who’s Afraid of a Few More Tariffs?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

China and Mexico want to talk trade, U.S. factories are struggling and the Fed is trying to figure out how to hit its inflation target. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Something to Talk About

China and Mexico both signaled a willingness to negotiate with Washington over escalating trade issues, Josh Zumbrun and Yoko Kubota report.

  • Beijing released a government policy paper Sunday accusing Washington of scuttling trade negotiations. It said the Trump administration’s “America First” program and use of tariffs are harming the global economy and that China wouldn’t shy away from a trade war.
  • But China’s government appears ready to return to negotiations. “We’re willing to Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Who’s Afraid of a Few More Tariffs?”

Real Time Economics: Who’s Afraid of a Few More Tariffs?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

China and Mexico want to talk trade, U.S. factories are struggling and the Fed is trying to figure out how to hit its inflation target. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Something to Talk About

China and Mexico both signaled a willingness to negotiate with Washington over escalating trade issues, Josh Zumbrun and Yoko Kubota report.

  • Beijing released a government policy paper Sunday accusing Washington of scuttling trade negotiations. It said the Trump administration’s “America First” program and use of tariffs are harming the global economy and that China wouldn’t shy away from a trade war.
  • But China’s government appears ready to return to negotiations. “We’re willing to Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Who’s Afraid of a Few More Tariffs?”

Real Time Economics: Who’s Afraid of a Few More Tariffs?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

China and Mexico want to talk trade, U.S. factories are struggling and the Fed is trying to figure out how to hit its inflation target. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Something to Talk About

China and Mexico both signaled a willingness to negotiate with Washington over escalating trade issues, Josh Zumbrun and Yoko Kubota report.

  • Beijing released a government policy paper Sunday accusing Washington of scuttling trade negotiations. It said the Trump administration’s “America First” program and use of tariffs are harming the global economy and that China wouldn’t shy away from a trade war.
  • But China’s government appears ready to return to negotiations. “We’re willing to Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Who’s Afraid of a Few More Tariffs?”