Real Time Economics: Remind Me Again Why the Fed is Cutting Rates


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The Fed seems likely to push ahead with a rate cut despite improving economic data, U.S. consumers are big spenders and President Trump’s top trade adviser knows how to win friends on Capitol Hill, but can he influence people? Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Stop Making Sense

The facts have changed, but the Federal Reserve sure doesn’t seem like it is changing its mind. The central bank has signaled it is all but certain to cut interest rates at its policy meeting later this month—so much so that the debate among investors has moved on to how big the cut will be, and when it will be Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Remind Me Again Why the Fed is Cutting Rates”

Real Time Economics: The Fed Is Going to Cut, Inflation Says Hello and Trump Knocks Bitcoin


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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No one supports tighter monetary policy anymore, the budget deficit is growing and growing, and President Trump has something to say about cryptocurrencies. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

The Good Place

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell completed two days of testimony on Capitol Hill this week. The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos says this is what we learned:

Real Time Economics: Fed Signals a Rate Cut, Markets Rejoice


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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A Fed rate cut later this month looks like a slam dunk, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill for a second day of testimony, and tariffs aren’t driving factories back to U.S. shores. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

A Little Insurance

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the central bank is ready to cut interest rates later this month to cushion the U.S. economy against the risks of slower global growth and trade-policy uncertainty, Nick Timiraos reports.

Real Time Economics: Powell to Testify, Boeing Falters and China’s Factories Confront Deflation


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill, there are more U.S. job openings than unemployed and Boeing is losing its spot as the world’s biggest airplane manufacturer. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Clues You Can Use

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance on Capitol Hill will be watched closely for clues on interest rates. The central bank leader has a prime opportunity to either reset or ratify market expectations for a cutduring two days of testimony before lawmakers. The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos tells us what to watch:

Real Time Economics: U.S. and China Try Again on Trade, Odds of a Recession Rising


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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The U.S. and China will chat by phone this week, a higher minimum wage would boost incomes but could cost jobs, and lawmakers aren’t echoing President Trump’s criticism of the Fed chairman. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Can You Hear Me Now?

Top American and China negotiators are set to speak this week in an effort to revive stalled trade talks, William Mauldin, Josh Zumbrun and Chao Deng report.

Real Time Economics Special Edition: U.S. Hiring Rebounds


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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U.S. employers added 224,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% in June as more workers joined the labor force. Jeff Sparshott and Greg Ip here to take you through the key numbers in the latest jobs report. 

Slowing, Not Sinking

The June jobs report has eradicated for now fear of imminent recession. But the robust headline gain masks some troubling signs beneath the surface. The number of private-sector workers is growing, but the hours they work less so: Total private hours worked grew just 0.2% in June and were lower than in January. Coupled with decelerating manufacturing and service activity signaled by purchasing managers indexes, this points to growth downshifting from 3% over the previous year to around 2%. The case for lower Continue reading “Real Time Economics Special Edition: U.S. Hiring Rebounds”

Real Time Economics: What Will the June Jobs Report Tell Us About the Economy?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

It’s jobs day! Jeff Sparshott here to walk you through key economic developments ahead of the June employment report. We’ll be back with a special edition of the newsletter after the numbers are released. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Summer Job or Summer School?

Teenagers aren’t working like they used to. They are, in fact, one of the big reasons the U.S. labor-force participation rate is depressed. “If teens had still participated in the labor force at their 2000 rates, aggregate 16-64-year-old participation would be more than 1.3 percentage points higher,” the Hamilton Project says in a new blog post. That’s about one-third of the aggregate drop in labor-force participation among the working-age population.

Real Time Economics: Jobs, Central Banks and Lawyers


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The U.S. labor market is looking pretty average, President Trump has two new picks for the Fed and the European Central Bank is about to get a new leader. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

The American Jobs Machine

Real Time Economics is taking the Fourth of July off. So here’s an early peek at what to expect from Friday’s jobs report—before we dive into central bank news:

Job creation in the U.S. appears to be cooling off to pre-tax cut levels. In the three month’s ended in May, employers added an average of 151,000 jobs per month. That’s the slowest pace since late 2017, just before Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Jobs, Central Banks and Lawyers”

Real Time Economics: Trump and Xi Call a Truce, China Factory Activity Contracts


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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There’s a trade truce, the U.S. expansion is now the longest on record, closely watched factory data is out today, Americans celebrate Independence Day on Thursday and then boom we get the June jobs report on Friday. Buckle up and good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Cease-Fire

President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China managed to get trade talks back on track this past weekend. Now an even tougher job lies ahead: appeasing hard-line factions within their own governments demanding they give no quarter, Bob Davis and Lingling Wei report.

Real Time Economics: Trump and Xi Prepare to Meet as Global Trade Flags


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

President Trump departs for a high-stakes meetings with China’s president, U.S. and Chinese consumers are looking less confident, and the Fed’s chairman pushes back against White House attacks. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Last Chance

Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping will seek to revive troubled U.S.-China trade talks this week, in a test of whether their professed personal chemistry can surmount seemingly intractable differences at the bargaining table, William Mauldin writes.

Real Time Economics: Trump and Xi Prepare to Meet as Global Trade Flags


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

President Trump departs for a high-stakes meetings with China’s president, U.S. and Chinese consumers are looking less confident, and the Fed’s chairman pushes back against White House attacks. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Last Chance

Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping will seek to revive troubled U.S.-China trade talks this week, in a test of whether their professed personal chemistry can surmount seemingly intractable differences at the bargaining table, William Mauldin writes.

Real Time Economics: Are U.S. Factories in Trouble?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

U.S. factory activity is looking weaker, the American oil boom is moderating and the Fed is under a lot of pressure to get its next rate call right. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Friday Night Lights Out

The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index fell to the lowest level in three years in June. Trade tensions are clouding the outlook for factories, with 41% of Texas manufacturers saying U.S. and foreign tariffs have had a negative impact on business. The weak Dallas report follows soft New York and Philadelphia Fed surveys, suggesting a potentially poor reading for the closely watched Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index (out July Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Are U.S. Factories in Trouble?”

Wolf Richter: Bring on Higher Oil Prices: They’ll Boost the US Economy. Powell Sees it Too. A New Experience for the US


This post is by Lambert Strether from naked capitalism


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The plunge in oil prices since August has caused the oil-and-gas sector to get skittish with capital expenditures this year, and Powell picked up on that. Investment in the US shale sector has a big impact on the real economy.

Real Time Economics: Factory Weakness Keeps Central Banks in Play


This post is by Brian Blackstone from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

Good morning. Brian Blackstone here to take you through the latest on Europe’s factory slowdown, the most recent central-bank decisions and U.S. corporate-profit repatriation. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Dark Clouds

Factory output has weakened in a number of key economies, a worrying sign for the global economy that strengthens the case for fresh stimulus from central banks, Paul Hannon writes. Europe has suffered the sharpest turnaround, and there is little relief in sight, according to a June survey of purchasing managers conducted by data firm IHS Markit. The purchasing managers index for manufacturing rose to 47.8 from 47.7 in May, but a reading below 50.0 points still points to a decline in activity. Readings for the three months Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Factory Weakness Keeps Central Banks in Play”

Real Time Economics: The Fed Didn’t Cut…Yet


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The Fed didn’t give President Trump an interest-rate cut, women are working more and sleeping less, and investors are squeezing first-time buyers out of the housing market. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

An Ounce of Prevention

Federal Reserve officials held interest rates steady but suggested they would cut them in the months ahead if the economic outlook doesn’t improve, Nick Timiraos reports.

Parsing the Fed: How the June Statement Changed From May


This post is by Becky Bowers from Real Time Economics


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The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the June statement compared with May.
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