Real Time Economics: The Fed Is Going to Cut, Inflation Says Hello and Trump Knocks Bitcoin


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No one supports tighter monetary policy anymore, the budget deficit is growing and growing, and President Trump has something to say about cryptocurrencies. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

The Good Place

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell completed two days of testimony on Capitol Hill this week. The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos says this is what we learned:

Real Time Economics: Fed Signals a Rate Cut, Markets Rejoice


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A Fed rate cut later this month looks like a slam dunk, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill for a second day of testimony, and tariffs aren’t driving factories back to U.S. shores. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

A Little Insurance

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the central bank is ready to cut interest rates later this month to cushion the U.S. economy against the risks of slower global growth and trade-policy uncertainty, Nick Timiraos reports.

Real Time Economics: Powell to Testify, Boeing Falters and China’s Factories Confront Deflation


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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill, there are more U.S. job openings than unemployed and Boeing is losing its spot as the world’s biggest airplane manufacturer. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Clues You Can Use

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance on Capitol Hill will be watched closely for clues on interest rates. The central bank leader has a prime opportunity to either reset or ratify market expectations for a cutduring two days of testimony before lawmakers. The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos tells us what to watch:

Real Time Economics: U.S. and China Try Again on Trade, Odds of a Recession Rising


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The U.S. and China will chat by phone this week, a higher minimum wage would boost incomes but could cost jobs, and lawmakers aren’t echoing President Trump’s criticism of the Fed chairman. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Can You Hear Me Now?

Top American and China negotiators are set to speak this week in an effort to revive stalled trade talks, William Mauldin, Josh Zumbrun and Chao Deng report.

The Puzzle in the Labor Data


This post is by Barry Ritholtz from The Big Picture


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The U.S. Labor Market Isn’t all That Healthy Underemployment is a problem that isn’t measured well by the official data. Bloomberg, July 1, 2019       By most measures, the U.S. is at or very close to full employment. The unemployment rate today is 3.6%, the lowest since 1969. And yet, there is a sense that…

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Real Time Economics Special Edition: U.S. Hiring Rebounds


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U.S. employers added 224,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% in June as more workers joined the labor force. Jeff Sparshott and Greg Ip here to take you through the key numbers in the latest jobs report. 

Slowing, Not Sinking

The June jobs report has eradicated for now fear of imminent recession. But the robust headline gain masks some troubling signs beneath the surface. The number of private-sector workers is growing, but the hours they work less so: Total private hours worked grew just 0.2% in June and were lower than in January. Coupled with decelerating manufacturing and service activity signaled by purchasing managers indexes, this points to growth downshifting from 3% over the previous year to around 2%. The case for lower Continue reading “Real Time Economics Special Edition: U.S. Hiring Rebounds”

Real Time Economics: What Will the June Jobs Report Tell Us About the Economy?


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It’s jobs day! Jeff Sparshott here to walk you through key economic developments ahead of the June employment report. We’ll be back with a special edition of the newsletter after the numbers are released. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Summer Job or Summer School?

Teenagers aren’t working like they used to. They are, in fact, one of the big reasons the U.S. labor-force participation rate is depressed. “If teens had still participated in the labor force at their 2000 rates, aggregate 16-64-year-old participation would be more than 1.3 percentage points higher,” the Hamilton Project says in a new blog post. That’s about one-third of the aggregate drop in labor-force participation among the working-age population.

Real Time Economics: Jobs, Central Banks and Lawyers


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The U.S. labor market is looking pretty average, President Trump has two new picks for the Fed and the European Central Bank is about to get a new leader. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

The American Jobs Machine

Real Time Economics is taking the Fourth of July off. So here’s an early peek at what to expect from Friday’s jobs report—before we dive into central bank news:

Job creation in the U.S. appears to be cooling off to pre-tax cut levels. In the three month’s ended in May, employers added an average of 151,000 jobs per month. That’s the slowest pace since late 2017, just before Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Jobs, Central Banks and Lawyers”

Real Time Economics: Americans Still Love the Suburbs, Factories Falter and Home Builders Sputter


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Millennials are a lot like every other generation, U.S. factories are slowing but not out of the fight, and surprise surprise, infrastructure spending surged early in 2019. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Back to the ‘Burbs

American suburbs are swelling again. Millennials priced out of popular big cities are flocking to Frisco, Texas, Nolensville, Tenn., Lakewood Ranch, Fla., and Scottdale, Ga.—not exactly household names but among the fastest-growing destinations in the U.S. Suburbs now account for 14 of the 15 fastest-growing U.S. cities with populations over 50,000, Valerie Bauerlein reports.

BBRG: The U.S. Labor Market Isn’t all That Healthy


This post is by Barry Ritholtz from The Big Picture


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The U.S. Labor Market Isn’t all That Healthy Underemployment is a problem that isn’t measured well by the official data. Bloomberg, July 1, 2019       By most measures, the U.S. is at or very close to full employment. The unemployment rate today is 3.6%, the lowest since 1969. And yet, there is a sense that…

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The post BBRG: The U.S. Labor Market Isn’t all That Healthy appeared first on The Big Picture.

Real Time Economics: Trump and Xi Call a Truce, China Factory Activity Contracts


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There’s a trade truce, the U.S. expansion is now the longest on record, closely watched factory data is out today, Americans celebrate Independence Day on Thursday and then boom we get the June jobs report on Friday. Buckle up and good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Cease-Fire

President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China managed to get trade talks back on track this past weekend. Now an even tougher job lies ahead: appeasing hard-line factions within their own governments demanding they give no quarter, Bob Davis and Lingling Wei report.

Whats Up With the Labor Market?


This post is by Barry Ritholtz from The Big Picture


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I started doing some research for a new column involving the very low unemployment rate, why wages are lagging (Still), and what is being called full employment. I am finding lots of things that are confusing, if not outright conflicted. Consider these factoids: 3.6% U3 Unemployment rate is considered full employment — but wage gains…

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The post Whats Up With the Labor Market? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Real Time Economics: The U.S. and China Are Fighting About More Than Just Trade


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Good morning. This week brings key manufacturing, consumer spending and inflation data, remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, and a meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Jeff Sparshott here to help you get ready for another busy week of economic news. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

It’s Not Just a Trade Fight

The Trump administration is examining whether to require next-generation 5G cellular equipment used in the U.S. be designed and manufactured outside China. The move could reshape global manufacturing and further fan tensions between the countries, Stu Woo and Dustin Volz report.

Real Time Economics: The Fed Didn’t Cut…Yet


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The Fed didn’t give President Trump an interest-rate cut, women are working more and sleeping less, and investors are squeezing first-time buyers out of the housing market. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

An Ounce of Prevention

Federal Reserve officials held interest rates steady but suggested they would cut them in the months ahead if the economic outlook doesn’t improve, Nick Timiraos reports.

Get a Job!


This post is by Barry Ritholtz from The Big Picture


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My Bloomberg column on Monday was headlined, “How to Invest and Profit in the Next Recession. I discussed 4 things you should do in anticipation of whenever the next economic contraction happens to come along: 1. Clean out your portfolio 2. Pay down debt 3. Be ready to buy when stock prices plunge 4. Check…

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Real Time Economics: Trump Eases Tensions with China, Ratchets Up Pressure on Fed


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It’s Fed day! The central bank is under unusal pressure as it considers cutting rates, U.S.-China trade talks are back on track and American employers are getting stingier with bonuses. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Trump and Xi to Meet

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to meet in Japan next week, lifting financial markets and spurring hopes for a trade truce, Vivian Salama, William Mauldin and Josh Zumbrun report. Both sides are under pressure to get back to the bargaining table.

Real Time Economics: U.S.-China Tensions Spread Across the Economy


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U.S. inflation numbers are out today, Chinese money is suddenly toxic in Silicon Valley, and students in Jersey City are getting a chance to earn free college and a $70,000 a year job. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

U.S.-China Tensions Hitting Silicon Valley

The Chinese cash that powered Silicon Valley is suddenly toxic. Since late last year, venture firms with China ties have been dialing back their U.S. investments, structuring deals to avoid regulators or shutting their U.S. offices. Some American venture firms are dumping their Chinese limited partners and some U.S. startups are trying to push their Chinese investors out to Continue reading “Real Time Economics: U.S.-China Tensions Spread Across the Economy”

Real Time Economics: U.S.-China Tensions Spread Across the Economy


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

U.S. inflation numbers are out today, Chinese money is suddenly toxic in Silicon Valley, and students in Jersey City are getting a chance to earn free college and a $70,000 a year job. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

U.S.-China Tensions Hitting Silicon Valley

The Chinese cash that powered Silicon Valley is suddenly toxic. Since late last year, venture firms with China ties have been dialing back their U.S. investments, structuring deals to avoid regulators or shutting their U.S. offices. Some American venture firms are dumping their Chinese limited partners and some U.S. startups are trying to push their Chinese investors out to Continue reading “Real Time Economics: U.S.-China Tensions Spread Across the Economy”

Real Time Economics: Just How Tight Is the Labor Market?


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The number of U.S. job openings has outpaced the number of unemployed for 14 straight months, the Fed is trying not to listen to the president, and gasoline prices are falling just in time for a trip to the beach. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Career Opportunities

The number of job openings exceeded the number of unemployed Americans by the largest margin on record in April, signaling difficulty finding workers in a tight market, Sarah Chaney reports.

Real Time Economics: Employers Tap the Brakes


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The May employment report wasn’t pretty. The U.S. added just 75,000 jobs and the prior two months were revised down by a combined 75,000. Investors may expect the softer jobs data, alongside some other so-so economic indicators and heightened global trade tensions, to push the Federal Reserve toward cutting interest rates. Jeff Sparshott and Greg Ip here to take you through some of the numbers.

A Reason to Worry, a Little

May’s surprisingly soft 75,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls is, fundamentally, fine: it’s about what the U.S.’s slow-growing population can sustain over the long run. Claims for unemployment insurance and confidence surveys point to solid labor demand inconsistent with a recession. Yet there are reasons to worry, a little: