Real Time Economics: The U.S. and China Are Fighting About More Than Just Trade


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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Good morning. This week brings key manufacturing, consumer spending and inflation data, remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, and a meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Jeff Sparshott here to help you get ready for another busy week of economic news. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

It’s Not Just a Trade Fight

The Trump administration is examining whether to require next-generation 5G cellular equipment used in the U.S. be designed and manufactured outside China. The move could reshape global manufacturing and further fan tensions between the countries, Stu Woo and Dustin Volz report.

Links (6/23/19)


This post is by Mark Thoma from Economist's View


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




Links (6/23/19)


This post is by Mark Thoma from Economist's View


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




Real Time Economics: Factory Weakness Keeps Central Banks in Play


This post is by Brian Blackstone from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

Good morning. Brian Blackstone here to take you through the latest on Europe’s factory slowdown, the most recent central-bank decisions and U.S. corporate-profit repatriation. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Dark Clouds

Factory output has weakened in a number of key economies, a worrying sign for the global economy that strengthens the case for fresh stimulus from central banks, Paul Hannon writes. Europe has suffered the sharpest turnaround, and there is little relief in sight, according to a June survey of purchasing managers conducted by data firm IHS Markit. The purchasing managers index for manufacturing rose to 47.8 from 47.7 in May, but a reading below 50.0 points still points to a decline in activity. Readings for the three months Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Factory Weakness Keeps Central Banks in Play”

Real Time Economics: The Fed Didn’t Cut…Yet


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The Fed didn’t give President Trump an interest-rate cut, women are working more and sleeping less, and investors are squeezing first-time buyers out of the housing market. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

An Ounce of Prevention

Federal Reserve officials held interest rates steady but suggested they would cut them in the months ahead if the economic outlook doesn’t improve, Nick Timiraos reports.

Parsing the Fed: How the June Statement Changed From May


This post is by Becky Bowers from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the June statement compared with May.
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = “0” ]
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Real Time Economics: Trump Eases Tensions with China, Ratchets Up Pressure on Fed


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

It’s Fed day! The central bank is under unusal pressure as it considers cutting rates, U.S.-China trade talks are back on track and American employers are getting stingier with bonuses. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Trump and Xi to Meet

President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed to meet in Japan next week, lifting financial markets and spurring hopes for a trade truce, Vivian Salama, William Mauldin and Josh Zumbrun report. Both sides are under pressure to get back to the bargaining table.

Real Time Economics: Fed Forced to Weigh Mixed Economic Signals


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The European Central Bank suddenly sounds a lot more dovish. Will the Fed follow? Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Losing Patience

Federal Reserve officials meet Tuesday and Wednesday recognizing they may need to cut interest rates should the economic outlook darken. The question is whether that moment has arrived or if they need more information before deciding, Nick Timiraos writes.

Links (6/17/19)


This post is by Mark Thoma from Economist's View


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




Real Time Economics: The Fed Weighs a Rate Cut and the White House Considers a Tariff Increase


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The U.S. Trade Representative opens hearings on new China tariffs, the Fed has a tough task on communication this week and corporate bond investors don’t seem too worried about the economy. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the day’s economic news. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Like a Good Neighbor

The Federal Reserve usually cuts interest rates because bad things are happening. Sometimes, though, it cuts rates because the risk of bad things has gone up—like taking out an insurance policy, Nick Timiraos writes.

Links (6/14/19)


This post is by Mark Thoma from Economist's View


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




  • Is Labour’s fiscal policy rule neoliberal? – mainly macro That is the charge some on the left, particularly followers a movement called MMT, have laid against Labour's Fiscal Credibility Rule (FCR). MMT stands for nothing very informative, but it is a non-mainstream left-wing macroeconomic school of thought. Bill Mitchell, one of the leading lights of MMT, has run a relentless campaign against the FCR through his blog. As my own work with Jonathan Portes helped provide the intellectual foundation for the FCR, I will try and explain why I find the neoliberal charge nonsensical. …
  • Bill Mitchell's fantasy about Labour's fiscal rule – mainly macro My last post about outlandish attacks from some MMTers on Labour’s Fiscal Credibility Rule (FCR) was designed to be read by non-economists, and I didn’t want to bore them or waste space with all the fantasies Bill Mitchell has spread about the rule. But as I’ve

    Continue reading “Links (6/14/19)”

Links (6/14/19)


This post is by Mark Thoma from Economist's View


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




  • Is Labour’s fiscal policy rule neoliberal? – mainly macro That is the charge some on the left, particularly followers a movement called MMT, have laid against Labour's Fiscal Credibility Rule (FCR). MMT stands for nothing very informative, but it is a non-mainstream left-wing macroeconomic school of thought. Bill Mitchell, one of the leading lights of MMT, has run a relentless campaign against the FCR through his blog. As my own work with Jonathan Portes helped provide the intellectual foundation for the FCR, I will try and explain why I find the neoliberal charge nonsensical. …
  • Bill Mitchell's fantasy about Labour's fiscal rule – mainly macro My last post about outlandish attacks from some MMTers on Labour’s Fiscal Credibility Rule (FCR) was designed to be read by non-economists, and I didn’t want to bore them or waste space with all the fantasies Bill Mitchell has spread about the rule. But as I’ve

    Continue reading “Links (6/14/19)”

Real Time Economics: U.S. and China Talk Tough on Trade


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

U.S. consumer spending and industrial production numbers are in focus this morning, the White House is threatening consequences if China’s president doesn’t meet with President Trump, and Washington has learned to love debt. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Trade or Consequences

The White House’s top economic adviser said President Trump could take further action against China if President Xi Jinping doesn’t agree to a meeting at the Group of 20 summit in Japan later this month, William Mauldin reports.

Real Time Economics: Low Inflation Could Allow the Fed to Cut Rates. But Should It?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

Low inflation gives the Fed space to cut interest rates, the U.S. budget deficit is ballooning, and investors are wary of big Western economies. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

No Price Pressure

U.S. inflation slowed in May, restrained by weakening price pressures almost across the board. The consumer-price index, which measures what Americans pay for household goods and services, rose just 1.8% from a year earlier despite a strong labor market and moderate wage gains. The report is the last broad look at inflation before Federal Reserve officials meet Tuesday and Wednesday. Policy makers are debating whether to cut interest rates to bolster a Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Low Inflation Could Allow the Fed to Cut Rates. But Should It?”

Real Time Economics: U.S.-China Tensions Spread Across the Economy


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

U.S. inflation numbers are out today, Chinese money is suddenly toxic in Silicon Valley, and students in Jersey City are getting a chance to earn free college and a $70,000 a year job. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

U.S.-China Tensions Hitting Silicon Valley

The Chinese cash that powered Silicon Valley is suddenly toxic. Since late last year, venture firms with China ties have been dialing back their U.S. investments, structuring deals to avoid regulators or shutting their U.S. offices. Some American venture firms are dumping their Chinese limited partners and some U.S. startups are trying to push their Chinese investors out to Continue reading “Real Time Economics: U.S.-China Tensions Spread Across the Economy”

Real Time Economics: U.S.-China Tensions Spread Across the Economy


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

U.S. inflation numbers are out today, Chinese money is suddenly toxic in Silicon Valley, and students in Jersey City are getting a chance to earn free college and a $70,000 a year job. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

U.S.-China Tensions Hitting Silicon Valley

The Chinese cash that powered Silicon Valley is suddenly toxic. Since late last year, venture firms with China ties have been dialing back their U.S. investments, structuring deals to avoid regulators or shutting their U.S. offices. Some American venture firms are dumping their Chinese limited partners and some U.S. startups are trying to push their Chinese investors out to Continue reading “Real Time Economics: U.S.-China Tensions Spread Across the Economy”

Real Time Economics: Just How Tight Is the Labor Market?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The number of U.S. job openings has outpaced the number of unemployed for 14 straight months, the Fed is trying not to listen to the president, and gasoline prices are falling just in time for a trip to the beach. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Career Opportunities

The number of job openings exceeded the number of unemployed Americans by the largest margin on record in April, signaling difficulty finding workers in a tight market, Sarah Chaney reports.

Links (6/10/19)


This post is by Mark Thoma from Economist's View


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




  • This time might not be different ~ Antonio Fatas Estimating the probability of a recession over a short horizon has so far proven to be a challenging task for economists. Each cycle looks slightly different from the previous one and trying to come up with precise indicators of crises leads to either overpredicting them or missing their timing as some risks are underestimated. As the US enters its longest expansion ever, we are back to a discussion on whether there are any reliable indicators that can help us forecast the next turning point. Without providing an exhaustive list of all candidates, let me highlight the interaction between three statistical patterns and how they inform us (or not) about the risks ahead: …
  • Mar-a-Lago Comes for British Health – Paul Krugman …last year he tweeted that Britons were marching in the streets to protest a health system that was “going broke

    Continue reading “Links (6/10/19)”

Links (6/10/19)


This post is by Mark Thoma from Economist's View


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




  • This time might not be different ~ Antonio Fatas Estimating the probability of a recession over a short horizon has so far proven to be a challenging task for economists. Each cycle looks slightly different from the previous one and trying to come up with precise indicators of crises leads to either overpredicting them or missing their timing as some risks are underestimated. As the US enters its longest expansion ever, we are back to a discussion on whether there are any reliable indicators that can help us forecast the next turning point. Without providing an exhaustive list of all candidates, let me highlight the interaction between three statistical patterns and how they inform us (or not) about the risks ahead: …
  • Mar-a-Lago Comes for British Health – Paul Krugman …last year he tweeted that Britons were marching in the streets to protest a health system that was “going broke

    Continue reading “Links (6/10/19)”

Real Time Economics: Who Will Trump Threaten With Tariffs Next?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The South’s low-tax, low-wage economic strategy is faltering, a top Trump official wants a reprieve for Huawei, and some states are starting to remove one big obstacle to a more mobile labor force. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

The South Isn’t Rising Anymore

The American South spent much of the past century trying to overcome its position as the country’s poorest and least-developed region, with considerable success: By the 2009 recession it had nearly caught up economically with its northern and western neighbors, Sharon Nunn reports.