Real Time Economics: Remind Me Again Why the Fed is Cutting Rates


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The Fed seems likely to push ahead with a rate cut despite improving economic data, U.S. consumers are big spenders and President Trump’s top trade adviser knows how to win friends on Capitol Hill, but can he influence people? Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Stop Making Sense

The facts have changed, but the Federal Reserve sure doesn’t seem like it is changing its mind. The central bank has signaled it is all but certain to cut interest rates at its policy meeting later this month—so much so that the debate among investors has moved on to how big the cut will be, and when it will be Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Remind Me Again Why the Fed is Cutting Rates”

Real Time Economics: U.S. Consumers Are Propping Up the Economy


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We’ll check on the health of U.S. consumers today, global regulators are setting up a firewall around cryptocurrencies, and Europe’s oldest workers are driving a jobs boom. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Shop Till You Drop

U.S. consumer spending has been a bright spot in the economy. Retail sales figures for June, out today at 8:30 a.m. ET, are expected to increase 0.1% from a month earlier, which would be the fifth gain in six months so far this year. It’s a good thing. Household outlays appear to be propping up the second-quarter economy.

Real Time Economics: China Slows, Companies Flee and Mexico Hits the Skids


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China slows and no one seems to care, the 2020 election is making a pair of economists famous and the jobless rate is losing some of its shine as the preeminent economic indicator. Good morning. Brian Blackstone here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Feeling the Heat

China’s economic growth decelerated to its slowest pace in decades, weakened by trade tensions with the U.S. and businesses that held back from making big investments despite encouragement from Beijing. The economy grew by 6.2% in the second quarter, down from 6.4% in the period before. Investments remained weak on a quarterly basis, even though the month of June saw the beginning of a Continue reading “Real Time Economics: China Slows, Companies Flee and Mexico Hits the Skids”

Real Time Economics: The Fed Is Going to Cut, Inflation Says Hello and Trump Knocks Bitcoin


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No one supports tighter monetary policy anymore, the budget deficit is growing and growing, and President Trump has something to say about cryptocurrencies. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

The Good Place

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell completed two days of testimony on Capitol Hill this week. The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos says this is what we learned:

Real Time Economics: Fed Signals a Rate Cut, Markets Rejoice


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A Fed rate cut later this month looks like a slam dunk, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill for a second day of testimony, and tariffs aren’t driving factories back to U.S. shores. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

A Little Insurance

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell signaled the central bank is ready to cut interest rates later this month to cushion the U.S. economy against the risks of slower global growth and trade-policy uncertainty, Nick Timiraos reports.

Real Time Economics: Powell to Testify, Boeing Falters and China’s Factories Confront Deflation


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Fed Chairman Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill, there are more U.S. job openings than unemployed and Boeing is losing its spot as the world’s biggest airplane manufacturer. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Clues You Can Use

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s appearance on Capitol Hill will be watched closely for clues on interest rates. The central bank leader has a prime opportunity to either reset or ratify market expectations for a cutduring two days of testimony before lawmakers. The WSJ’s Nick Timiraos tells us what to watch:

Real Time Economics: U.S. and China Try Again on Trade, Odds of a Recession Rising


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The U.S. and China will chat by phone this week, a higher minimum wage would boost incomes but could cost jobs, and lawmakers aren’t echoing President Trump’s criticism of the Fed chairman. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Can You Hear Me Now?

Top American and China negotiators are set to speak this week in an effort to revive stalled trade talks, William Mauldin, Josh Zumbrun and Chao Deng report.

Real Time Economics: Stimulus Goes Missing, Too Many SUVs, Not Enough Gas Pipelines


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This week, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell heads to Capitol Hill and we’ll see a raft of inflation data from the U.S., Europe and China just as central banks contemplate further stimulus. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to help you get ready for another full week of economic news. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Why Isn’t the Government Spending More Money?

The economy was supposed to get a lift this year from higher government spending. But so far, much of that stimulus has not shown up, Kate Davidson reports.

Real Time Economics Special Edition: U.S. Hiring Rebounds


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U.S. employers added 224,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7% in June as more workers joined the labor force. Jeff Sparshott and Greg Ip here to take you through the key numbers in the latest jobs report. 

Slowing, Not Sinking

The June jobs report has eradicated for now fear of imminent recession. But the robust headline gain masks some troubling signs beneath the surface. The number of private-sector workers is growing, but the hours they work less so: Total private hours worked grew just 0.2% in June and were lower than in January. Coupled with decelerating manufacturing and service activity signaled by purchasing managers indexes, this points to growth downshifting from 3% over the previous year to around 2%. The case for lower Continue reading “Real Time Economics Special Edition: U.S. Hiring Rebounds”

Real Time Economics: What Will the June Jobs Report Tell Us About the Economy?


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It’s jobs day! Jeff Sparshott here to walk you through key economic developments ahead of the June employment report. We’ll be back with a special edition of the newsletter after the numbers are released. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Summer Job or Summer School?

Teenagers aren’t working like they used to. They are, in fact, one of the big reasons the U.S. labor-force participation rate is depressed. “If teens had still participated in the labor force at their 2000 rates, aggregate 16-64-year-old participation would be more than 1.3 percentage points higher,” the Hamilton Project says in a new blog post. That’s about one-third of the aggregate drop in labor-force participation among the working-age population.

Real Time Economics: Jobs, Central Banks and Lawyers


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The U.S. labor market is looking pretty average, President Trump has two new picks for the Fed and the European Central Bank is about to get a new leader. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

The American Jobs Machine

Real Time Economics is taking the Fourth of July off. So here’s an early peek at what to expect from Friday’s jobs report—before we dive into central bank news:

Job creation in the U.S. appears to be cooling off to pre-tax cut levels. In the three month’s ended in May, employers added an average of 151,000 jobs per month. That’s the slowest pace since late 2017, just before Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Jobs, Central Banks and Lawyers”

Real Time Economics: Americans Still Love the Suburbs, Factories Falter and Home Builders Sputter


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Millennials are a lot like every other generation, U.S. factories are slowing but not out of the fight, and surprise surprise, infrastructure spending surged early in 2019. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Back to the ‘Burbs

American suburbs are swelling again. Millennials priced out of popular big cities are flocking to Frisco, Texas, Nolensville, Tenn., Lakewood Ranch, Fla., and Scottdale, Ga.—not exactly household names but among the fastest-growing destinations in the U.S. Suburbs now account for 14 of the 15 fastest-growing U.S. cities with populations over 50,000, Valerie Bauerlein reports.

Real Time Economics: Trump and Xi Call a Truce, China Factory Activity Contracts


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There’s a trade truce, the U.S. expansion is now the longest on record, closely watched factory data is out today, Americans celebrate Independence Day on Thursday and then boom we get the June jobs report on Friday. Buckle up and good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Cease-Fire

President Trump and President Xi Jinping of China managed to get trade talks back on track this past weekend. Now an even tougher job lies ahead: appeasing hard-line factions within their own governments demanding they give no quarter, Bob Davis and Lingling Wei report.

Real Time Economics: Trump Talks Big Trade Deals With India and Japan. What About China?


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U.S. consumer spending and inflation data out today should fill in some blanks on the second-quarter economy, President Trump is talking trade deals in Japan, and European politicians are looking to the 1970s for economic policy inspiration. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

‘A Very Big Trade Deal’

President Trump struck a conciliatory tone with other world leaders as the Group of 20 summit got started Friday, saying there would be “very big” trade deals to announce with India and Japan. Mr. Trump didn’t provide specifics as he held meetings with Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. But he praised both, assuaging concerns Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Trump Talks Big Trade Deals With India and Japan. What About China?”

Real Time Economics: Settle the Trade Fight? China Has Its Terms


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China wants the U.S. to take Huawei off its blacklist, the U.S. economy is sending mixed signals and homeownership is out of reach for more Americans. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

China Sets Its Terms

Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to present President Trump with a set of terms the U.S. should meet before Beijing is ready to settle a market-rattling trade confrontation, raising questions of whether the two leaders will agree to relaunch talks, Lingling Wei and Bob Davis report.

Real Time Economics: Trump and Xi Prepare to Meet as Global Trade Flags


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President Trump departs for a high-stakes meetings with China’s president, U.S. and Chinese consumers are looking less confident, and the Fed’s chairman pushes back against White House attacks. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Last Chance

Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping will seek to revive troubled U.S.-China trade talks this week, in a test of whether their professed personal chemistry can surmount seemingly intractable differences at the bargaining table, William Mauldin writes.

Real Time Economics: Trump and Xi Prepare to Meet as Global Trade Flags


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

President Trump departs for a high-stakes meetings with China’s president, U.S. and Chinese consumers are looking less confident, and the Fed’s chairman pushes back against White House attacks. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Last Chance

Presidents Trump and Xi Jinping will seek to revive troubled U.S.-China trade talks this week, in a test of whether their professed personal chemistry can surmount seemingly intractable differences at the bargaining table, William Mauldin writes.

Real Time Economics: Are U.S. Factories in Trouble?


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U.S. factory activity is looking weaker, the American oil boom is moderating and the Fed is under a lot of pressure to get its next rate call right. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Friday Night Lights Out

The Dallas Fed’s manufacturing index fell to the lowest level in three years in June. Trade tensions are clouding the outlook for factories, with 41% of Texas manufacturers saying U.S. and foreign tariffs have had a negative impact on business. The weak Dallas report follows soft New York and Philadelphia Fed surveys, suggesting a potentially poor reading for the closely watched Institute for Supply Management manufacturing index (out July Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Are U.S. Factories in Trouble?”

Real Time Economics: The U.S. and China Are Fighting About More Than Just Trade


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Good morning. This week brings key manufacturing, consumer spending and inflation data, remarks from Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, and a meeting between President Trump and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping. Jeff Sparshott here to help you get ready for another busy week of economic news. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

It’s Not Just a Trade Fight

The Trump administration is examining whether to require next-generation 5G cellular equipment used in the U.S. be designed and manufactured outside China. The move could reshape global manufacturing and further fan tensions between the countries, Stu Woo and Dustin Volz report.

Real Time Economics: Factory Weakness Keeps Central Banks in Play


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Good morning. Brian Blackstone here to take you through the latest on Europe’s factory slowdown, the most recent central-bank decisions and U.S. corporate-profit repatriation. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Dark Clouds

Factory output has weakened in a number of key economies, a worrying sign for the global economy that strengthens the case for fresh stimulus from central banks, Paul Hannon writes. Europe has suffered the sharpest turnaround, and there is little relief in sight, according to a June survey of purchasing managers conducted by data firm IHS Markit. The purchasing managers index for manufacturing rose to 47.8 from 47.7 in May, but a reading below 50.0 points still points to a decline in activity. Readings for the three months Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Factory Weakness Keeps Central Banks in Play”