Here are my thoughts on the markets, in no particular order: 1) Momentum draws investors. Long treasuries have run hard, and people like them now. My view is, if you want to short them, wait until they rise 0.1% more in yield, then short. There are a lot of weak longs to shake out....
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Insect bites, bruises, sore feet, tiredness, happy sons… I am back from backpacking. Whenever a financial product is plentiful, it is usually time to avoid it. Tonight’s poster child for such nuttiness is junk bonds. If you are a speculator, you can own junk bonds, and the stocks of the companies that are issuing...
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In a panic, only two attributes of a financial instrument get priced — liquidity and quality/survivability. In a panic, all risky assets become highly positively correlated with each other. Given that correlations tend to rise in a panic, a reasonable measure of sentiment is to measure the average absolute value of 10-day correlations. Markets...
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A reader MorallyBankrupt, asked, What I am wondering here is the following, how fast was the decision process? For those of us that have never worked in the new-issue market for corps, the timeline is not obvious. How did it all flow, from getting notice of the deal, to getting a feel for the...
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When I reviewed the book Priceless, I thought I had reviewed “Fortune’s Formula,” because I had written several pieces on the Kelly Criterion at the blog and at RealMoney (free at TSCM). But I found that I had not, so I offer you this review of a book I greatly enjoyed: The book asks...
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Pardon the infrequency of posting. I have been having internet issues.
1) A response to those commenting on my piece A Stylized View of the Global Economy: when I say stylized, is does not mean that every nation fits the paradigm, only that most do. My view is that the debt overages will have to...
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Filed under: Research in Motion (RIMM), OptionsResearch in Motion (RIMM) shares closed down Wednesday, under-performing the broader market, which finished near break even. RIMM didn't report any news of its own accord, but investors likely reacted to a...
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Reuters on Thursday published snippets of the discussions taking place at its Global Energy Summit, including some forthright commentary from the heads of various commodity exchanges....
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What if securitization allows the economy to expand more rapidly than it would at a price of volatility, when intermediaries would prove useful?
Sometimes securitization and tranching creates securities for which there is no native home.
As the life insurance industry shrinks, it will be hard to find buyers for subordinated structured product.
Securitization is an...
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This is a book about Harry Markopolos, who is the author of this book. He talks about how he attempted for years to expose the fraud that was Bernie Madoff.
The book takes the following form (from my view of how the author sees it):How he came to a quick conclusion that Bernie Madoff was...
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