Blogger Sentiment Analysis
Are prominent stock market bloggers in aggregate able to predict the market’s direction? The Ticker Sense Blogger Sentiment Poll “is a survey of the web’s most prominent investment bloggers, asking ‘What is your outlook on the U...
Investor Overconfidence and Trading Behaviors [PREMIUM]
How overconfident are individual investors, and how does overconfidence affect their investing practices? In his November 2011 paper entitled “Financial Overconfidence Over Time | Foresight, Hindsight, and Insight of Investors”, Chris...
Consumer Sentiment and Stock Returns
The business media and expert commentators sometimes cite the monthly University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index as an indicator of U.S. economic and stock market health, generally interpreting a jump (drop) in sentiment as good (bad) for future c...
Watsonizing Financial Markets? [PREMIUM]
Is information technology moving in on qualitative event trading just as it has high-frequency quantitative algorithm trading? In the October 2011 version of their paper entitled “Event Driven Trading and the ‘New News’”, David ...
VIX and Future Stock Market Returns [PREMIUM]
Experts and pundits sometimes cite a very high (low) Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX), the options-implied volatility of the S&P 500 Index, as an indication of investor panic (complacency) and therefore of a pending U.S....
Monthly News Sentiment Predicts Stock Market Returns? [PREMIUM]
Does news lead the stock market? In his September 2011 paper entitled “Reuters Sentiment and Stock Returns”, Matthias Uhl tests whether aggregate Thomson Reuters news sentiment (feeling, opinion or emotion evoked while reading a Reuters n...
Gross National Happiness as Stock Market Return Predictor
Does aggregate social network sentiment, as measured by Facebook’s Gross National Happiness (GNH), predict future stock market returns? In his August 2011 preliminary draft paper entitled “Can Facebook Predict Stock Market Activity?”,...
Mark Hulbert’s Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index
A reader suggested that we review the stock market commentary of Mark Hulbert, editor of the Hulbert Financial Digest, which tracks the recommendations of a wide range of investing newsletters. He is also a regular columnist at MarketWatch. Because Mar...
Gold Price Drivers?
What drives the price of gold: inflation, stock prices, public sentiment? To investigate, we relate spot gold price to the Consumer Price Index (non-seasonally adjusted), the S&P 500 Index and consumer sentiment. We start sampling in 1975 because:...
Do Investors Care About “the Way Things Are Going”?
...evidence suggests that public sociopolitical satisfaction and stock market valuation move substantially in step, with no way to exploit the broad sentiment measure in stock market trading.
Short-term News Premium for Individual Stocks [PREMIUM]
“With Thomson Reuters News Analytics, computers can not only read the news – they can interpret it too. The results can enhance your investment and trading strategies, helping you to spot new opportunities and generate alpha. And for the humans...
Testing the Rydex Asset Ratio
A reader suggested looking at Rydex asset ratios as stock market sentiment indicators. The reasoning for these indicators is that a high (low) ratio of assets in bullish funds to assets in bearish funds indicates an overbought (oversold) market. Are th...
