A beef quiz, and revisited Koo
“Like a Hitchcock film. You did not need to see the blood and gore and violence – the hint of it and the menace that pervaded the office was worse.” - Theo Zemek cheerily describes the atmosphere at New Star...
2012 – the year of the double dip
Festive cheer seems to be in short supply at Capital Economics:– We don’t have high hopes for 2012. In fact, we continue to think that the UK will re-enter recession....
Deutsche’s Reid on shorter business cycles
It must be nearly Christmas, for the last Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid of 2011 was today.Luckily, strategist Jim Reid and his team left us with a note on their thoughts for...
Not even in Japan…
Whatever is decided at the Save the Euro summit, it seems certain the eurozone is heading into recession.But not just any recession, this will be a protracted one reckons Citigroup....
Countdown to $100 Oil – High Energy Prices Suppressing Growth?
This is the fifth post in the series following the oil price, markets and general health of the global economy, examining the simple theory that OECD recession may result from annual average oil price exceeding $100 / bbl.
The annual average price (AAP...
Five Misconceptions About Peak Oil
I recently attended the annual ASPO conference in Washington, D.C. This was only my 2nd ASPO conference; the other one I attended was in 2008 in Sacramento. There were many familiar faces, some of whom I had previously met and some I only knew by reput...
Are We Reaching “Limits to Growth”?
It looks to me as though 2012 is likely to be a truly awful financial year, with several crises converging:
Either very high oil prices or recession,
The US governmental debt limit crisis,
The Euro crisis,
The Chinese debt problem,
Debt deleveraging i...
DPS vs. EPS
Dividends or earnings? Where should equity investors put their hope if Europe slides into a recession?The former will likely outperform the latter, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Ronan Carr....
The translated Troika
11 October 2011 – Statement by the European Commission, the ECB and IMF on the Fifth Review Mission to GreeceStaff teams from the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB),...
Crunch de crédit
Credit:Crunch:Both charts from the ECB’s latest lending survey of banks. Clear signs, we’d argue, that funding pressures did spike over the third quarter, and critically,...
A US recession indicator
Interesting chart from Ruslan Bikbov at BofA Merrill Lynch.As you see the yield curve has proved to be a very powerful recession indicator. So why is Bikbov drawing our attention...
