Notes on the 2011 Berkshire Hathaway Annual Report, Part 2
Picking up where the last post left off: 13) So Buffett told us he has a successor lined up, but won’t tell us who, but will tell us that the successor doesn’t know that he is the successor. Really does not seem like much of an improvement over the past, except that the CIO function...
Recent Sorted Tweets
Finance Business Breaking Ranks: Former Broker Turns Bomb Thrower http://t.co/q1vpz9dh @reformedbroker interview previews his book: http://t.co/Yigg2sEE $$ Feb 24, 2012 Why CLO managers continue to struggle http://t.co/a13j8jVG Low issuance, warehousing is tough, need more subordination, fewer senior buyers Feb 24, 2012 My Favorite Quote from Baupost’s 2011 Annual Letter http://t.co/VOvbqab3 DIstressed bond mgrs get...
Against Risk Parity, Redux
Here are two articles to read on risk parity: Pro: Pick Your Poison Con: The Hidden Risks of Risk Parity Portfolios I’m on the “con” side of this argument, because I am a risk manager, and have traded a large portfolio of complex bonds. For additional support consider my article Risks, Not Risk. Or read...
Redacted Version of the January 2012 FOMC Statement
December 2011 January 2012 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some apparent slowing in global growth. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately, notwithstanding some slowing in global...
The Rules, Part XXIX
Risk premiums should never be capitalized, they should only be taken into income as earned. This may end up being another odd post of mine. I’m going to start writing about bank regulation, but I will end up talking about monetary policy. There are many people who hate the rating agencies. They hate them because...
Industry Ranks January 2012
I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis. My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are cold. Red industries are hot. If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the...
Risk-Based Liquidity
When there is financial failure, it comes as a result of illiquidity. Now, truly, these parties are insolvent, because they took the risk of not being able to pay cash when it was due. Illiquidity and insolvency are really the same thing, though many obfuscate. If you can’t pay cash, it doesn’t matter what your...
Risk-Based Liquidity
When there is financial failure, it comes as a result of illiquidity. Now, truly, these parties are insolvent, because they took the risk of not being able to pay cash when it was due. Illiquidity and insolvency are really the same thing, though many obfuscate. If you can’t pay cash, it doesn’t matter what your...
Peak Credit
What I write here will not be rigorous. We’ve heard about “peak oil.” We’ve heard about other resources, and how production will decline over time. But what of credit? It isn’t that hard to create, but it is hard to create well, particularly when debt levels are high, as in this environment. It’s not just...
Redacted Version of the December 2011 FOMC Statement
November 2011 December 2011 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September indicates that economic growth strengthened somewhat in the third quarter, reflecting in part a reversal of the temporary factors that had weighed on growth earlier in the year. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November...
Industry Ranks December 2011
I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis. My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are cold. Red industries are hot. If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the...
Get a Piece of the Schlock
There is a benefit to reading books on marketing for those that will never be marketers: it will immunize you to sales pitches. Think of it as studying the strategies of the enemy. When you talk to salesmen, you can flip their words back at them, or tell them “no,” to the questions that have...
