Market Corrections of 4% or More
> Whenever we have a very red or green day, I like to find the most persuasive piece I can arguing for the contrary position. Today, that would be something bullish. What is rather surprising is that I found just such an upbeat contrary take in the usually skeptical Alan Abelson’s column. Abelson notes that...
Here’s to the Lazy Ones . . .
“Here’s to the Lazy Ones. The halfwits, the bumblers, the square pegs in the round holes. The ones who don’t see things at all. They’re not fond of rules (can’t remember them). They have no respect for the status-quo, which they think its Latin for Fendi. You cannot quote them, as they say little that...
Cost of Bad Buy/Sell Decisions
Via Visual News > click for giant graphic Infographic by Visual News
The Shiller Duality
“The test of a first-rate intelligence is the ability to hold two opposing ideas in mind at the same time and still retain the ability to function.” -F. Scott Fitzgerald > Fascinating article in The Chronicle of Higher Education about the duality of Yale behavioral economist, professor Robert Shiller (One Economist’s Mission to Redeem the Field...
The Future of America
One of the things I have taught myself to do over the years was to think in different time frames. This includes very long geological epochs and astronomical eons. Maybe it was an interest in dinosaurs and astronomy as a kid, but historical time frames was a concept I was familiar with. Perhaps that was the...
Skyscraper Index
Back in February, we looked at the Skyscraper Index Building Bubble. This is the money shot from that report: > Note I posted a small low res shot so as to not overload the servers; if you want to see the full report, click here — otherwise, to see the larger version of...
Innumerate Claim of the Day: NASA Scientists Dispute Climate Change
So I get this email from a colleague today offering me “proof” that global warming is a scam. His “overwhelming evidence”? A letter from 49 former NASA Scientists. NASA is in open revolt over climate change! Wow, 49 Scientists? That’s really impressive (at first glance!) Let’s see if it holds up to scrutiny. Whenever I...
Consolidation versus Crash
Markets yesterday were set up for a major disruption: New quarter, earnings season, a blistering Q1 and an overbought condition. What we got instead was a low volume, 1% correction. Whenever we are at an important market junction, I like to wargame a few scenarios: • What would the markets be doing if this was...
Fear of Buying: The Psychology of Renting (Part 5 of 5)
All last week, we looked at the Housing Recovery theme, challenging the arguments and assumptions of the Residential Real Estate bulls. Last Monday, we began with Debunking the Housing Recovery Story, looking at the huge overhang of Shadow inventory. On Tuesday, it was a Reality Check on Home Affordability. Wednesday, we looked at valuations in...
Fear of Buying: The Psychology of Renting (Part 5 of 5)
All last week, we looked at the Housing Recovery theme, challenging the arguments and assumptions of the Residential Real Estate bulls. Last Monday, we began with Debunking the Housing Recovery Story, looking at the huge overhang of Shadow inventory. On Tuesday, it was a Reality Check on Home Affordability. Wednesday, we looked at valuations in...
Mark Hanson: Most Common Things I Hear on Housing
Mark Hanson: I make calls to Realtors, mortgage loan officers, builders, housing investors, and various individuals actively involved in the house and mortgage markets every day. I think their street level perception and anecdotes are extremely valuable to housing and mortgage sector research. When talking to these folks I think asking the right questions is...
A Willingness To Be Influenced
Carl worked as a portfolio manager managing approx. $120m at the time of his retirement in 2007. He now currently manages his personal investments on a full time basis. ~~~ We are moving into the height of the political cycle over the next few months. It is apparent that the Republicans will nominate Romney and...
