2011 Investment Mea Culpas
January is nearly over, so it is once again time to look at the various errors, mistakes and bad calls that I made in the asset management business in 2011. I have made ‘fessing up part of my process – this is my third annual version (see my previous mea culpas for 2009 and 2010)....
Barron’s Cover: Don’t Lose My Money
“Things in the U.S. aren’t nearly as bad now as they were back in 2008 and early 2009, but don’t try and tell the retail investor that. They’re truly spooked.” -Justin Walters, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group. > Here we are 12 years into a secular bear market, and the concern amongst investors is capital...
How the Brain’s Wiring Forms Thoughts and Emotions
New techniques, including advances in brain scans, are helping to reveal the hidden anatomy of brain wiring and giving scientists a new understanding of how thoughts, memories and emotions are formed. WSJ’s Robert Lee Hotz reports.
1/23/2012 7:...
Is Anyone Any Good at Picking Hedge Fund Managers?
Last week, I gave a very informal presentation to an audience of sophisticated HNW investors. Lots of family offices, none with less than $10m net worth; I’d ballpark the median > $50m. They get together regularly to discuss investing issues they are wrestling with. The presentation was very general, including my (non)outlook on the economy,...
Hume, Causation & Science
There is a very interesting article in Wired this month, ostensibly about the tribulations of the modern scientific method, big pharma’s drug development approach, etc. But within the article is an excellent digression about the complexities of causation: “Causes are a strange kind of knowledge. This was first pointed out by David Hume, the 18th-century...
Cyclical Bull Markets: SPX vs Dividends
> The chart comes to us from Michael Gayed of Pension Partners: “We all know that markets continuously go through ever-changing cycles of fear and greed, defense and offense right? Much like a pendulum, investor sentiment swings and goes through cycles as well. The above chart shows the price ratio relationship of the S&P 500...
Adaptive Markets and the New World Order
Adaptive Markets and the New World Order Andrew W. Lo December 30, 2011 http://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1977721 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) – Sloan School of Management ; Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) – Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) ; National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) Abstract: The traditional investment paradigm is based on several key...
Marketing Right vs. Left Brain Advertising
Logic versus Emotion > click for ginormous graphic Source: Marketo
Decline of Deference, Disdain for Über-Rich
Interesting observation: “Disdain for the uber-rich was unthinkable until — “It wasn’t the crash of 2008 that led to their fall from grace, nor exposure of the greed and stupidity that required a massive public rescue. It was their graceless reaction to the bailouts: no apologies, remorse or gratitude — even faked; just more arrogance,...
New Year’s Resolutions is Graphic Form
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full graphics after the jump
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New Year’s Resolutions is Graphic Form
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full graphics after the jump
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New Year’s Resolutions is Graphic Form
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full graphics after the jump
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