Posts Tagged ‘ Portfolio Management ’

I haven’t written about my portfolio management methods in a while.  I’ll be writing on this a few more times over the next week or so.  The eighth rule of my investing is: Make changes to the portfolio 3-4 times per year. Evaluate the replacement candidates as a group against the current portfolio. New...
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I have a post on the futility of fiscal policy coming, but the hubbub over Jackson Hole has made me alter my publishing schedule.  I want to give one more shot on the idea that the Fed is out of ammunition, and that unorthodox moves are more likely to scare the public than result...
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11) I was surprised to read that there is not a perfect market in interest rate swaps.  They are so vanilla, but counterparty risk interferes. 12) There is always a skunk at the party, and who better than Baruch to dis bonds?  I half agree with him.  Half, because the momentum can’t be ignored...
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1) Start with the big one from yesterday.  On of my favorite monetary heretics, Raghuram Rajan, whose excellent book I reviewed, Fault Lines, pointed out how he had gotten it right prior to the crisis, versus many at the Fed who blew it badly.  Rajan suggests that Fed Funds should be at 2-2.25%, which...
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Illiquidity is an underrated risk.  Most financial company failures are due to illiquidity, which usually takes the form of too many illiquid assets and liquid liabilities.  Adding to the difficulty is that it is generally difficult to price illiquid assets, because they don’t trade often. So where do we see failures due to illiquidity?...
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1) Kind of like my thesis that the States give a better picture of the economy than the Federal Government, I agree with the idea that small banks better represent that health of the US economy.  Most small an medium-sized businesses rely on small banks.  Growth in employment relies on small and medium-sized businesses,...
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1) I am not a Treasury bond bull, per se, but I am reluctant to short until I see real price weakness.  And some think that I am only a fundamentalist value investor.  With bonds, it is tough to catch the turning points, and tough to grasp the motivations of competitors.  Better to miss...
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Here are my thoughts on the markets, in no particular order: 1) Momentum draws investors.  Long treasuries have run hard, and people like them now.  My view is, if you want to short them, wait until they rise 0.1% more in yield, then short.  There are a lot of weak longs to shake out....
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“How can I beat the Lehman Aggregate?” a bond manager friend recently asked me.  Tough question in this environment; I’m still musing about it.  It’s a tough market. Start with Treasuries — they are the bedrock of the market. Here is the Treasury yield curve at 4 polar moments in the last two years. ...
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Insect bites, bruises, sore feet, tiredness, happy sons… I am back from backpacking. Whenever a financial product is plentiful, it is usually time to avoid it.  Tonight’s poster child for such nuttiness is junk bonds.  If you are a speculator, you can own junk bonds, and the stocks of the companies that are issuing...
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