Where Will The Next Crisis Come From?

Jeffrey Kleintop, the Chief Global Investment Strategist at Schwab, created this wonderful chart (below) showing the various sources of global market turmoil. He hints at something very interesting, writing: “Shocks to the global system happen all the time. Many of these shocks are absorbed by the system without much disruption.” Why them do some shocks lead… Read More The post Where Will The Next Crisis Come From? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Where Will The Next Crisis Come From?

Jeffrey Kleintop, the Chief Global Investment Strategist at Schwab, created this wonderful chart (below) showing the various sources of global market turmoil. He hints at something very interesting, writing: “Shocks to the global system happen all the time. Many of these shocks are absorbed by the system without much disruption.” Why them do some shocks lead… Read More The post Where Will The Next Crisis Come From? appeared first on The Big Picture.

The Great S&P Sector Reshuffle

Via Barron’s: “Sector investing won’t be the same, either, after the unprecedented overhaul by S&P and MSCI of their Global Industry Classification System, or GICS, a widely used taxonomy that carves up the stock market into sectors, industry groups, industries, and subindustries. The biggest change: A new sector, communication services, is rising from the ashes of… Read More The post The Great S&P Sector Reshuffle appeared first on The Big Picture.

What Does the Longest Bull Market Mean? A Debate

What Does the Longest Bull Market Mean?: Kaissar vs. Ritholtz The run for stocks is now in the record books. So what? Bloomberg, August 23, 2018     There’s lots of disagreement about whether the current bull market in stocks is now the longest in history. Bloomberg Opinion columnists Nir Kaissar and Barry Ritholtz recently… Read More The post What Does the Longest Bull Market Mean? A Debate appeared first on The Big Picture.

Markets Don’t Care About News

Ben Carlson wrote a wonderful analysis about one of my favorite subjects: Why StockMarkets Don’t Care About the News. Ben breaks it down into 5 specific categories: 1. Markets don’t care who the president is. 2. Expectations matter more than the news itself. 3. The flow of information is mind-boggling. 4. We are pattern seeking creatures. 5.… Read More The post Markets Don’t Care About News appeared first on The Big Picture.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.24.18

Succinct Summations for the week ending August 24th, 2018 Positives: 1. Jobless claims fell to 210k w/o/w, down from previous week’s 212k. 2. MBA home mortgage applications rose a seasonally adjusted 3% w/o/w. 3. Order for core capital goods rose 1.4% m/o/m, beating expected gain of .5%. 4. Same store sales rose 4.7% w/o/w, higher… Read More The post Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 8.24.18 appeared first on The Big Picture.

Bloomberg: Don’t Bet on a Market Crash If Trump Gets Ousted

Don’t Bet on a Market Crash If Trump Gets Ousted Based on the past, major political events don’t have much effect. Bloomberg, August 24, 2018     Even by this president’s tumultuous term, this week saw a whole new level of political volatility 1  So much so that it appears President Trump is a getting… Read More The post Bloomberg: Don’t Bet on a Market Crash If Trump Gets Ousted appeared first on The Big Picture.

Bloomberg: What Does the Longest Bull Market Mean?: Kaissar vs. Ritholtz

What Does the Longest Bull Market Mean?: Kaissar vs. Ritholtz The run for stocks is now in the record books. So what? Bloomberg, August 23, 2018     There’s lots of disagreement about whether the current bull market in stocks is now the longest in history. Bloomberg Opinion columnists Nir Kaissar and Barry Ritholtz recently met… Read More The post Bloomberg: What Does the Longest Bull Market Mean?: Kaissar vs. Ritholtz appeared first on The Big Picture.

Steve Einhorn’s Bear Market Checklist

Steve Einhorn is Vice Chairman at Omega Advisors, and Lee Cooperman’s right hand man. I like his checklist (via Disciplined Systematic Global Macro Views): The Einhorn Bear market checklist: 1.  Problematic Inflation 2. Hostile Fed 3. Prospects of recession 4. Investor sentiment 5. Valuation Good stuff! Source: Disciplined Systematic Global Macro Views     See also: MiB: Lee Cooperman… Read More The post Steve Einhorn’s Bear Market Checklist appeared first on The Big Picture.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 8.17.18

Succinct Summations for the week ending August 17th, 2018 Positives: 1. Jobless claims fell to 212k w/o/w, beating the expected 215k. 2. Nonfarm productivity shows a 2.9% annualized rate q/o/q, beating expectations. 3. Retail sales rose .5% in July, beating the expected .1% rise. 4. Consumer sentiment remains at high levels, coming in at 97.9… Read More The post Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 8.17.18 appeared first on The Big Picture.

Bloomberg: Index Funds Will Be OK Confronting Cruel Markets

Index Funds Will Be Fine Confronting Cruel Markets The claim that passive investors will suffer more in an equity slump doesn’t hold up. Bloomberg, August 15, 2018       This past week, I came across such an odd column about index funds in the Times of London — “The risks of passive funds will be… Read More The post Bloomberg: Index Funds Will Be OK Confronting Cruel Markets appeared first on The Big Picture.

Every Generation Learns The Same Lessons

While it’s easy to tell people things, it’s much more powerful to learn things. And, as I get older, I see the same lessons being learned by subsequent generations. While this isn’t a post that says “everything is the same as it was before”, there are foundational lessons in life that play out over and over again. I spent the weekend with a friend from the last 1990s who was the lead banker on the Interliant IPO (I was a co-founder and co-chairman.) Last night, at the Aspen Entrepreneurs event, I was asked to describe several failures and I rolled out my story about Interliant, which, for a period of time (1999 – 2000) appeared to be hugely successful before going bankrupt in 2002. If you like to read IPO prospectuses, here’s the final S-1 filing after INIT went effective and started trading on July 8, 1999. A few
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