Never Tempt the Market Gods…

@TBPInvictus here: Dow just crashes through 25,000. Congrats! Big cuts in unnecessary regulations continuing. — Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) January 4, 2018   The above tweet is one of my favorites. Posted January 2018, the president seems to take credit as the Dow Jones Industrial Average “crashes through 25,000” because of his “big cuts in… Read More The post Never Tempt the Market Gods… appeared first on The Big Picture.

A World of Opportunities

If you think U.S. stocks are volatile, you should see Emerging Markets. EM did well in 2017, but have seen their fortunes slip in 2018. Still, diversification means that some of your assets will be allocated to parts of Here is Barron’s: “Emerging markets have had a terrible, horrible, no good, very bad year. In… Read More The post A World of Opportunities appeared first on The Big Picture.

Explaining the Correction, with Perfect Hindsight

The Stock-Market Meltdown That Everyone Saw Coming At least they saw it coming with the benefit of hindsight. The reality is, the explanations can’t account for what is probably a random event. Bloomberg, October 11, 2018       We interrupt this regularly scheduled correction to bring you an after the fact narrative explaining in… Read More The post Explaining the Correction, with Perfect Hindsight appeared first on The Big Picture.

BBRG: The Stock-Market Meltdown That Everyone Saw Coming

The Stock-Market Meltdown That Everyone Saw Coming At least they saw it coming with the benefit of hindsight. The reality is, the explanations can’t account for what is probably a random event. Bloomberg, October 11, 2018       We interrupt this regularly scheduled correction to bring you an after the fact narrative explaining in… Read More The post BBRG: The Stock-Market Meltdown That Everyone Saw Coming appeared first on The Big Picture.

Don’t Fear October

October Is the Scariest Month for Investors, Along With All the Others Actually, worry more about September. Bloomberg, October 1, 2018       Boo! October is here, and that inevitably means fear of stock-market crashes. Whether it is the Great Crash of 1929 (Black Tuesday) or the 23 percent one-day crash of 1987 (Black… Read More The post Don’t Fear October appeared first on The Big Picture.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.5.18

Succinct Summations for the week ending October 5th, 2018 Positives: 1. Unemployment rate decreased to an astonishing 3.7% in September (from 3.9%) 2. Jobless claims fell 8k w/o/w, from prior revised 215k to 207k. 3. Factory orders rose 2.3% m/o/m, higher than previous 0.8% decline. 4. PMI manufacturing index rose 0.9 in September, from 54.7… Read More The post Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 10.5.18 appeared first on The Big Picture.

BBRG: October Is the Scariest Month for Investors, Along With All the Others

October Is the Scariest Month for Investors, Along With All the Others Actually, worry more about September. Bloomberg, October 1, 2018       My list . of seasonal irritants is increasing: from the National Association of Retailers annual Black Friday nonsense, to the regular scary October fright fest. Its not that I am turning… Read More The post BBRG: October Is the Scariest Month for Investors, Along With All the Others appeared first on The Big Picture.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 9.28.18

Succinct Summations for the week ending September 28th, 2018 Positives: 1. Durable goods orders rose 4.5% m/o/m, meeting the high range of expectations. 2. Same store sales rose 5.8% w/o/w, 0.4% higher than the previous 5.4% rise. 3. New home sales came in at 629k for August, meeting expectations. 4. Retail inventories rose 0.7% m/o/m, up from… Read More The post Succinct Summation of Week’s Events for 9.28.18 appeared first on The Big Picture.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.21.18

Succinct Summations for the week ending September 21st, 2018   Positives: 1. Despite myriad possibilities, POTUS did not start a trade war or cause a constitutional crisis (let’s hope this holds for a while). 2. Housing starts rose 9.2% m/o/m from 1.174M to 1.282M. 3. Jobless claims fell 3k from 204k to 201k, beating expectations. 4.… Read More The post Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9.21.18 appeared first on The Big Picture.

Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9/7/18

Succinct Summations for the week ending September 7th, 2018 Positives: 1. Nonfarm payroll employment increased by 201,000 in August, and the Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 3.9 percent; 2. Jobless claims fell 10k w/o/w, from 213k to 203k. 3. MBA home mortgage applications fell a seasonally adjusted 1% w/o/w, up from previous 1% decline. 4. Same… Read More The post Succinct Summation of Week’s Events 9/7/18 appeared first on The Big Picture.