Real Time Economics: The Midterm Results Are In | Gridlock Likely To Limit Policy Shifts | Remember the Debt Ceiling?

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Democrats retook the House, Republicans added a seat in the Senate—and the short-term economic outlook is pretty much the same as before the midterms. Political gridlock is likely to temper major shifts in American economic and tax policy for the next couple years but could also leave Washington looking over the next fiscal cliff. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the latest developments affecting the global economy. HELP WANTED. SERIOUSLY. Before we dive into the election, here’s some bright news for workers: Unfilled jobs in the U.S. exceeded the number of unemployed Americans by more than one million as the summer came to a close. Before March, job openings had never exceeded unemployed workers in more than 17 years of monthly records, Eric Morath reports. It’s a Continue reading "Real Time Economics: The Midterm Results Are In | Gridlock Likely To Limit Policy Shifts | Remember the Debt Ceiling?"

Real Time Economics: U.S. Jobs Numbers On Tap, Trump Signals Progress With China

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. It’s jobs day! The U.S. employment report for October is out at 8:30 a.m. ET. Today we also look at progress and prospects for resolving the U.S.-China trade fight, slower growth at U.S. factories, so-so worker productivity, labor disruptions, and the company that’s following you by tracking your smartphone. GOOD COP President Trump said he had a “very good conversation” with President Xi Jinping of China, signaling progress in the nations’ trade dispute. The president’s upbeat assessment came as an impasse over trade has threatened to undermine a planned meeting between the two leaders at the Group of 20 leaders summit in Buenos Aires later this month, Vivian Salama, Aruna Viswanatha and Kate O’Keeffe report. Mr. Trump said the two discussed many issues by telephone on Thursday, Continue reading "Real Time Economics: U.S. Jobs Numbers On Tap, Trump Signals Progress With China"

Real Time Economics: Does Jerome Powell Look Happy? | Gut Check for Manufacturers | Capitalism Meets Coffee Prices

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning. Today we look at President Trump’s latest attack on the Fed, emerging risks for U.S. factories, international postal rates, Alaska’s long slog out of recession, a little competition among restaurants and retailers, the unprecedented rejection of Italy’s budget, and a White House history of socialism. JAY WALKING President Trump stepped up his attacks on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, calling the Fed the biggest risk to the economy. “Every time we do something great, he raises the interest rates,” the president said. Mr. Powell “almost looks like he’s happy raising interest rates.” In an interview with the WSJ’s White House team, Mr Trump stopped short of saying he’d try to fire the Fed chief: “I’m just saying this: I’m very unhappy with the Fed because Obama Continue reading "Real Time Economics: Does Jerome Powell Look Happy? | Gut Check for Manufacturers | Capitalism Meets Coffee Prices"

Real Time Economics: Goodbye Nafta, Hello USMCA | China’s Economy Sputters | Is Oil Heading to $100?

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning. Today we look at President Trump’s newest trade deal, signs of trouble at China’s factories, job creation in Europe, better days for part-time workers, rising oil prices, and how a strong labor market is hitting Harvard.  U.S., CANADA CROSS THE FINISH LINE The U.S. and Canada reached a last-minute deal to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement, lifting a cloud of uncertainty over the quarter-century-old commercial bloc. The pending agreement will allow Canada to join an accord reached in late August between the U.S. and Mexico, and diminishes the prospects for President Trump to kill Nafta outright, Jacob M. Schlesinger, Kim Mackrael and Vivian Salama report. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, makes significant changes to the continent’s commercial rulebook. The Continue reading "Real Time Economics: Goodbye Nafta, Hello USMCA | China’s Economy Sputters | Is Oil Heading to $100?"

Real Time Economics: U.S., Canada Try Again On Nafta | American Factories Are Humming | Amazon Tops $1 Trillion

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning. Today we look a the latest on Nafta talks, the U.S. manufacturing boom, clouds on the horizon for automakers, Australia’s 27-year economic expansion, and Amazon’s membership in an exclusive club. YO, CANADA The U.S. and Canada are going to try to salvage the North American Free Trade Agreement this week. Canadian Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer meet in Washington to try to bridge differences on a range of issues and maintain three countries in an updated pact, Paul Vieira and William Mauldin write. The pressure is on Canada: The U.S. and Mexico already agreed to terms, and the Trump administration is threatening more tariffs. Members of Congress want Canada to stay in the pact. Mexico wants Canada to remain. Canada Continue reading "Real Time Economics: U.S., Canada Try Again On Nafta | American Factories Are Humming | Amazon Tops $1 Trillion"

Real Time Economics: Dollar Strengthens as Turkey’s Troubles Rattle Currency Markets

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning! Today we look at a wild ride for currency markets, the economic outlook for the U.S., U.K. and Japan, and one high-class problem for a resurgent manufacturing sector—American factories are running short of parts. CURRENCY CRASH The dollar rose to its strongest point in more than a year while Turkey’s lira, Russia’s ruble and other currencies tumbled. Turkey: The lira has lost more than 20% over the week as international markets soured on the country’s capacity to repay its foreign-currency debts. Concerns about the health of Turkey’s financial system are rippling through global markets, Mike Bird writes.
Russia: U.S. sanctions roiled Russia’s currency and blue-chip stocks. Since 2014, Western sanctions have taken a severe toll on Russia’s economy, wiping out half of the ruble’s value, Continue reading "Real Time Economics: Dollar Strengthens as Turkey’s Troubles Rattle Currency Markets"

Real Time Economics: The U.S. Has More Job Openings Than Unemployed; Tariffs Take a Toll On Small Business

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning! Today we look at a record number of job openings in the U.S., small businesses struggling with tariffs while the Trump administration readies round two for China, a speed bump for the revised U.S.-South Korea trade pact, and the long-lost Phillips curve’s reemergence in … Japan.  READY, AIM, HIRE Unfilled jobs are piling up across the U.S. economy. U.S. job openings reached 6.7 million last quarter, the highest level on record, as an expanding economy demands more workers and a historically low unemployment rate means fewer are available. The situation is particularly acute in the transportation, retail and business-services sectors, Eric Morath and Jennifer Smith report.
Case study: Scotlynn Group is turning down work for lack of employees. The Fort Myers, Continue reading "Real Time Economics: The U.S. Has More Job Openings Than Unemployed; Tariffs Take a Toll On Small Business"

Real Time Economics: $500B In Tariffs on Chinese Goods? ‘Definitely a Realistic Possibility’

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning! Today we look at the Trump administration’s frustration with the Fed and China, U.S. industrial policy, how manufacturers are getting squeezed by rising costs, China’s tech catch-up, freezers full of meat, and why there aren’t enough caregivers for the elderly.  TARGET: THE FED, CHINA Last week ended with a bang. President Donald Trump signaled for a second straight day his frustration with the Federal Reserve’s policy of gradually raising interest rates, and then said he was prepared to impose U.S. tariffs on $500 billion worth of imports from China as part of his push to narrow U.S. trade deficits. The tough comments suggest the president could continue to escalate a feud with the Fed and take aim at currency markets, Nick Timiraos reports. Earlier in Continue reading "Real Time Economics: $500B In Tariffs on Chinese Goods? ‘Definitely a Realistic Possibility’"

Apple Betting Big on Production of Forthcoming iPhones, Says BlueFin

Apple is ramping up production of forthcoming iPhone models to what would be higher levels than ever before produced, write analysts with BlueFin Research Partners. That implies a confidence on Apple's part that three new models will induce customers who sat out the iPhone X, thereby boosting upgrade rates.

Wait, Tesla’s Model 3 Numbers Don’t Matter?

Tesla bull Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research doesn't really care what Tesla reports next week in terms of production numbers for its Model 3, as obsessing over such metrics are a bit of distraction from the long-term point of the company's mission, he writes.

Tech Today: Apple’s Other Stuff, Tesla’s Numbers, Domo’s IPO

Apple's planning to dump the "SE" low-priced iPhone model according to boutique research house BlueFin, and Apple's business can thrive based on lots of little innovations like the AirPods according to RBC Capital, Tesla's employees are speculating the company will miss its production target but one bullish analyst thinks it doesn't matter much, the IPO of software vendor Domo jumps 20% on debut, Amazon's PillPack buy causes a wave of price target cuts on the pharmacy stocks while its moves in the delivery business shouldn't be much of a worry to Fedex and UPS.