Finance

With ISM manufacturing, ADP jobs report, ISM services and government payrolls all released each of the next 4 days, the question is what does the market want to see. What I believe it doesn’t want to see is exactly what it loved in the 1990′s, a Goldilocks Economy, not too hot, not too cold. In...

The last regional April Fed manufacturing survey, the Dallas figure, is out and it went negative to -3.4 from +10.8 in March and well below expectations of +8.0. New Orders, Backlogs, Employment, Shipments, Production and Prices Paid and Received all fell from March. Inventories though did rise. The Company Outlook did fall 14 pts to...

Not surprisingly, Spain said their economy is officially back in a recession as Q1 GDP contracted .3% q/o/q for a 2nd straight quarter. It was though a touch better than expected and bonds and CDS are unchanged but stocks are lower. Spain’s recession following the UK is of course bringing front and center the debate...

The final look at April UoM confidence at 76.4 was a bit better than expectations of 75.7 and the preliminary reading of 75.7 and is up from 76.2 in March. It’s the best since Feb ’11 but the components were mixed as while Current Conditions rose 2.3 pts, the Outlook fell by a slight .2...

The final look at April UoM confidence at 76.4 was a bit better than expectations of 75.7 and the preliminary reading of 75.7 and is up from 76.2 in March. It’s the best since Feb ’11 but the components were mixed as while Current Conditions rose 2.3 pts, the Outlook fell by a slight .2...

For a 3rd straight week, Initial Jobless Claims were above 380k. At 388k for the week ended Saturday, it’s 13k above expectations and last week was revised up by 3k to 389k. The 4 week average moved up to 382k from 376k, the highest since early Jan. Bottom line, the 1st week above 380k we...

The FOMC statement is almost identical to the one given in March with its comments both on the economy and inflation and their current policy. There is a slight acknowledgement of the influence of higher energy prices on inflation as they said “inflation has picked up somewhat, mainly reflecting higher prices of crude oil and...

The Spanish IBEX, lower by 2.4%, ended just 1.3% above its March ’09 closing low and 3.1% above its intraday March ’09 low. The Italian MIB closed at the lowest level since Nov. Italian CDS is at a 3 month high, Spain is near record highs at just shy of 500 bps and France is...

The Spanish IBEX, lower by 2.4%, ended just 1.3% above its March ’09 closing low and 3.1% above its intraday March ’09 low. The Italian MIB closed at the lowest level since Nov. Italian CDS is at a 3 month high, Spain is near record highs at just shy of 500 bps and France is...

Existing Home Sales in March totaled 4.48mm annualized, below estimates of 4.61mm and down from 4.60mm in Feb. It’s the slowest pace since Dec but because the amount of homes for sale fell, months supply remained unchanged at 6.3. Both single family and condo/co-op sales were down from Feb. The median home price rose 2.5%...

For the 2nd week in a row Initial Jobless Claims jumped more than expected. Last week we could say maybe it was Good Friday but this week we can’t. Initial Claims totaled 386k, 16k more than expected and last week was revised up by 8k to 388k, the highest since the 1st week of Jan....

Note that mixed earnings from IBM and INTC reported after 4pm last night but before the futures closed at 4:15pm has the futures well below fair value. Starting in Asia, the BoJ Deputy Gov said in essence they will print as much yen as possible to get to their inflation target when he said this...