High Profits
Dr. Jeff Miller wrote an interesting question the other day: “Why does a Shiller disciple care about profit margins?“ Now, I am not a disciple of Dr. Shiller, I disagree with him on many issues, Trills for an example. When Shiller talks, odds are 50-50 that I agree, which makes him interesting to me, unlike...
Little Things are Important
One of the problems with many politicians, journalists, financial analysts, economists, etc., is that they don’t think systematically. Go back to late 2006, when I wrote my piece Wrecking Ball Looms for Big Housing Spec, which was regarding the coming subprime crisis. (Note: my editor often retitled my pieces; my original title was more circumspect.) ...
Did Samuelson and Solow Really Claim that the Phillips Curve was a Structural Relationship?
Like Robert Waldmann, I have always taught that the Phillips curve was initially promoted as a permanent tradeoff between inflation and unemployment. It was thought to be a menu of choices that allowed most any unemployment rate to be achieved...
Sorted Weekly Tweets
Eurozone If Greece Quits Euro, Its Ruin Will Be Pointless http://t.co/2DotggME Suggests Greece will face more pain if leaves E-zone than stays $$ May 17, 2012 Experts Try to Chart Path for Exit From Currency http://t.co/dtIAoo3g Let’s see, where is that manual for unscrambling eggs? Mmm… $$ May 17, 2012 On the E-zone: the...
In Defense of Nothing
Two years ago, I was at a board meeting for a nonprofit that I serve, and during a break, one of the older gentlemen made a statement that the big problem with America is that we don’t make anything anymore. I suggested to him that many services enhance and replace the need for some goods....
Don’t Become the Market
It was late 1993, and I knew that we could make a lot of money if I sold floating-rate Guaranteed Investment Contracts. Let me quote an earlier piece: My goal as an actuarial businessman was to make profits with modest risk for my ultimate owners, who were the mutual policyholders. Once I faced a situation...
Elderly Poor?
There will be elderly poor. Look at page 26 of this PDF. I interpret those that don’t know or declined as being well below $50K in assets. That means 60% of those reaching “retirement age” will have less than two years income stored up. That said I feel more sorry for younger workers who have...
Crossroads
This is a confusing time: Lousy fiscal policy — way too much borrowing by the government Lousy monetary policy — way too much expansion of the monetary base, and for little good reason, and funding the deficits of the government as a result… Negative real interest rates on Treasuries 15 years out; that is financial...
Sorted Weekly Tweets
Eurozone Danske Bank’s Patience With Moody’s Evaporates http://t.co/eGbf3kV5 Questions over willingness of Denmark to provide support in a crisis. May 11, 2012 CIC Stops Buying Europe Government Debt on Crisis Concern http://t.co/dljk9Tau Overblown; China will return to funding the Eurozone $$ May 10, 2012 Greeks May Hold $510 Billion Trump Card in Renegotiation http://t.co/P7U4LSpG...
The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 15
This stretches from August 2010 to October 2010: The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part VII On the value of credit analysts. The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part VIII On price discovery in dealer markets, and auctions gone wrong. I never knew that I could haggle so well. The Education of a...
Book Review: The Little Book of Bull’s Eye Investing
Before I start this evening, if you like my reviews generally, please go to Amazon and tell them that my reviews are helpful. From this link, it does not take long to do so. Thanks. This was one of those books that grew on me. The author, the well-known John Mauldin, strings together a bunch...
Sorted Weekly Tweets
Market Dynamics On Paradigm Shifts http://t.co/h68quEDX Hunter takes us through mental exercises 2 make us intelligently contrarian. “Invert, Always Invert” May 02, 2012 Hedgers’ net short position vanishes in US oil http://t.co/X0hLOWGB Commercial interests do not fear lower prices, could be bullish 4 crude May 02, 2012 There’s Plenty of Money for Junk http://t.co/vXML0Bao...
