IPOs: From Netscape To Facebook
In case you were unaware, IPOs are terrible investments — at least most of the time. The lottery ticket dreams keeps hope alive that this next one is going to be a giant winner. Hopes are pinned on the giant Facebook IPO, coming out at an expected 100 X earnings and 30 X revenue. Its...
Germany’s policy prescription re the Euro Zone is (quite rightly) being questioned
A number of you think I have been transformed into a raging bull. I certainly have not. It is just that I remember the lessons of 2009, when the FED and other Central Banks flooded the system with liquidity. Markets rose, irrespective of the fundamental data. The same is happening in Europe at present, following...
Why the Fed Trumps Weakening Economy
Here’s my (2nd) Yahoo Finance video from yesterday: > Click for video > First video is here A Housing Bottom Is Nowhere In Sight; there’s a nother in the queue
2011 Investment Mea Culpas
January is nearly over, so it is once again time to look at the various errors, mistakes and bad calls that I made in the asset management business in 2011. I have made ‘fessing up part of my process – this is my third annual version (see my previous mea culpas for 2009 and 2010)....
Is the Rally in Treasury Bonds Over?
One of my favorite sections of Barron’s each week is the Review/Preview — including a weekly question where they ask “They Said What?” Its a weekly must read. This week, they asked the loaded Is the Rally in Treasury Bonds Over? Here are the answers: David Goldman Principal, Macrostrategy.com “There has been a near-perfect inverse...
Barron’s Cover: Don’t Lose My Money
“Things in the U.S. aren’t nearly as bad now as they were back in 2008 and early 2009, but don’t try and tell the retail investor that. They’re truly spooked.” -Justin Walters, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group. > Here we are 12 years into a secular bear market, and the concern amongst investors is capital...
QOTD: Opinions About the Future
I started reading The Most Important Thing: Uncommon Sense for the Thoughtful Investor by Howard Marks last weekend. Coincidentally, I come across this great quote yesterday: “I confess, I think about the future. So do my colleagues. If someone who’s spent decades investing doesn’t have an opinion about what lies ahead, there’s something wrong. I believe...
Is Anyone Any Good at Picking Hedge Fund Managers?
Last week, I gave a very informal presentation to an audience of sophisticated HNW investors. Lots of family offices, none with less than $10m net worth; I’d ballpark the median > $50m. They get together regularly to discuss investing issues they are wrestling with. The presentation was very general, including my (non)outlook on the economy,...
Buying the 49er Breakout….
Though the Giants are closer to the New York Fed’s printing press, which can make magic happen, fix almost anything, and more powerful than steroids, we’re buying the 49er breakout. We do confess, however, our affinity for the team of the town we once lived and our love for Eli, but the fundamentals and technicals...
In Search of Yield & Dividends
From this weekend’s Barron’s, a look at stocks that do — and don’t — have decent dividends: “The benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 index has a dividend yield of just 2%, one of the lowest of any major global market. European stocks yield an average of nearly 5%, and even the historically low-yielding Japanese stock...
Index Funds Don’t Pick Themselves!
I was sitting on Friday’s hilarious Dilbert, expecting to post it Saturday, but so many friends and colleagues mailed it in to me, I was compelled to post it today: >
