Media Appearance: BTV Inside Track; Bloomberg Surveillance Radio
Inside Track Bloomberg Surveillance This morning, I am doing double duty at Bloomberg — from 7:00 am to 8:00 am, I will be on Inside Track with Erik Schatzker discussing the IPO you are already to sick to death about. Then from 8:00 am to 10:00 am, I will be guest hosting Bloomberg Surveillance...
Guest post: Why I’ll buy 40 random stocks when the FTSE hits 4000
Monkey strategy Pete Comley’s new book explains why private investors do so badly in aggregate, and how understanding why can help your investment decisions. I asked him how his research [...]
Re-Entry Signals Following 10 Month Moving Average Exit
Back in the beginning of the year, I mentioned that Mebane Faber and I were exploring updating his Spring 2007 Journal of Wealth Management paper titled “A Quantitative Approach to Tactical Asset Allocation.” (He is the Chief Investment Officer of Cambria Investment Management). As we discussed back earlier, Meb reviewed a simple timing model — the...
Factors Institutional Investors Are Favoring
Every year since 1989, Merrill Lynch surveys a few 100 institutional investors using a broad variety of quantitative, valuation, process and modeling questions. Their responses get summarized in a 39 chart, 27 page report. You can get a sense of the depth and breadth of the report in just a few charts — but overall,...
Outlook: Reply hazy, try again
A quick note before I head off to McCormick Place: Over the past 2 weeks, our cash levels have risen appreciably and equity exposure is now below 50%. A variety of factors, most of which were specific to individual holdings — not an overall equity call — led to this shift. This was not a...
Mutual Funds & Managers to Avoid
> My Sunday Washington Post Business Section column is out. This morning, we look at The mutual funds and managers to avoid. Both the print and online versions shared the same headline. Here’s an excerpt from the column: “Many factors determine how well your investment returns do. The big ones are (1) how your holdings...
Live-blogging Buffettpalooza
Berkshire Hathaway Inc. Chief Executive Warren Buffett will address shareholders here at 10:30 Eastern time Saturday, in his first appearance at the company’s annual meeting since his announcement 18 days ago that he has early-stage prostate cancer. Deal Journal will be there soaking in every minute.
Throwing the net wide open
It’s performance, Jim, but not as we know it I’ve updated the Thrifty 30 performance table and as usual have nothing to say about the portfolio’s performance in terms of [...]
Throwing the net wide open
It’s performance, Jim, but not as we know it I’ve updated the Thrifty 30 performance table and as usual have nothing to say about the portfolio’s performance in terms of [...]
Sell In May And Go Away…Except In Election Years
Click to enlarge: > However, the chart below shows just how fickle these seasonality charts can be. Looking at the seasonal return for stocks during election years shows a vastly different picture. > > While investors are not likely to make investing decisions based solely on a catchphrase such as, “Sell in May and go...
Where Sea Monsters Live
Last weekend, I got into — or more like watched — an interesting finance debate related to specific policies, websites, officials and analysts. All the usual suspects were covered. One person went on and on about central-bank planned economies, manipulated currencies, debasing of the dollar, gold, HFT, etc. “Its all a Ponzi scheme” he declared,...
The New Economic Order?
> Over the weekend, Josh Brown directed me to this monthly commentary from the Eclectica fund, which had the very interesting chart, above. (Full Eclectica Fund April 2012 commentary is here). The issue with the graphic above is that we have no real comparative history by which to judge this. It seems to be a...
