Handicapping the Chances of Greece Dropping the Euro
Understanding all the moving parts in the European sovereign debt crisis can be a Herculean task, even for the most determined analyst. Heck, even hazarding a guess at what tomorrow’s crisis du jour will be is more than enough for most investors to g...
The Hollande Discount
With a little more than an hour to go before the equity markets open in Europe, investors are still attempting to digest the significance of an electoral victory for Francois Hollande in France as well as a much more fragmented political scene in Greec...
Shorting DSK’s guilt
Beyond reasonable doubt, markets edition.Friday’s gambling action on the odds of DSK being found guilty, courtesy of Intrade.The FT’s The World is running a liveblog,...
Charts du jour: US elections edition
We won’t know anything for sure until Tuesday night, but here’s the latest update from the Intrade prediction markets, where investors are currently banking on the...
Chart of the Week: Intrade and the Midterm Elections
Three months ago in Chart of the Week: Intrade and Control of the House of Representatives, I used an Intrade.com contract as the chart of the week to illustrate how the markets were assigning probabilities to whether the Republicans would control the ...
Chart of the Week: Intrade and Control of the House of Representatives
With everyone else thinking about double dip recessions, European bank stress tests and the like, my thoughts have wandered to the next U.S. elections, which are barely three months away. While there are a number of key questions that will be strongly...
Brave Punt
Tip of the hat to Heidi Moore for this one. A contract just posted on Intrade:A very brave punt, that. Although if sir or madam is in a betting mood…
The price of Blankfeins…
Lloyd Blankfein’s stock is up. Or rather, the perceived likelihood that he will depart from Goldman Sachs before the end of the year has fallen sharply since he popped that magic PR pill....
