Industry Ranks February 2012
I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis. My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are cold. Red industries are hot. If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the...
What’s Up? What’s Down?
I can’t remember who gave me this idea, but sometimes I troll through the raw PPI data to get ideas on pricing power. Here’s a list of the top 50 rising items in the PPI: Code 2011 Px Increase Commodity Name WPU01130102 125.3% Dry pinto beans WPU01710802 109.8% Checks and undergrades WPU023307 90.7% Liquid raw...
Industry Ranks January 2012
I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis. My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are cold. Red industries are hot. If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the...
The Rules, Part XXVII, and, Seeming Cheapness vs Margin of Safety
The market takes action against firms that carry positions bigger than their funding base can handle. Temporarily, things may look good as the position is established, because the price rises as the position shifts from being a marginal part of the market to a structural part of the market. After that happens, valuation-motivated sellers appear...
Returns on Equity Amid the Financial Crisis, Response
I appreciate constructive criticism. I particularly appreciate comments at this blog, regarding my long article on how return on equity changed during the financial crisis. The reviewer said, In a world in which I didn’t have only 20 minutes to read, analyze and write about this paper, I’d like to think through his model choices....
Returns on Equity Amid the Financial Crisis, Redux
To have a full version of my article, with the equations that explain my reasoning, Returns on Equity amid the Financial Crisis. Thanks to all who read it.
Returns on Equity Amid the Financial Crisis
I wrote the following for the 2012 Baltimore Business Review. When it is publicly available on the web, I will highlight it. For now, I will offer you the unedited version of my paper that will be published there: -==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=–==-=–=-=-=-==–==-=–=-=-==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- Returns on Equity amid the Financial Crisis Abstract From 2005-2010, the change in public...
Industry Ranks December 2011
I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis. My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are cold. Red industries are hot. If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the...
Improve the Position
It’s hard to take a loss. But taking losses is necessary to avoid even larger losses. This is prompted by Barry Ritholtz tweeting to me a piece he wrote 3 months ago called, Take The Loss. Good piece, worth a read. What I suggest to you today is that there is a better way to...
Industry Ranks September 2011
I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis. My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are cold. Red industries are hot. If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the...
On Long Only Equity Investing in Bear Markets
A reader sent me the following question: Hi David, this is shall be link to your impossible dream part 2 question. You mention in the article date May13 that we are probably at #4 part of cycle (looking back great called) Where are we in the part of the cycle? ( I would assume we...
Book Review: The Era of Uncertainty
Many fundamental investors have been shaped by Peter Lynch. Invest from the bottom up. Analyze companies, not the economy. Time spent on analyzing the economy is wasted time. This book takes the opposite approach. If you understand the economy, and think you know how GDP growth and inflation will go, you have a better...
