Sorted Weekly Tweets
Market Dynamics On Paradigm Shifts http://t.co/h68quEDX Hunter takes us through mental exercises 2 make us intelligently contrarian. “Invert, Always Invert” May 02, 2012 Hedgers’ net short position vanishes in US oil http://t.co/X0hLOWGB Commercial interests do not fear lower prices, could be bullish 4 crude May 02, 2012 There’s Plenty of Money for Junk http://t.co/vXML0Bao...
A Brief Note on Earnings Yields (2)
My last post on this focused on trailing earnings. Trailing earnings have the advantage of being objective, but analysts try to estimate the future. To some degree they succeed, and that becomes the bar by which we measure the progress of companies. Now fewer companies have analysts following them, and the database that I use...
A Brief Note on Earnings Yields
I debated briefly (between my ears) how to present this data. I settled on this method, because if you want to play with it you can do so without too much trouble. Here are the earnings yields, dividend yields, and payout ratios (what percentage of trailing 12-month earnings have been paid out as dividends) by...
Industry Ranks March 2012
I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis. My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are cold. Red industries are hot. If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the...
Buy-and-Hold Can’t Die, Redux
When I wrote my piece last night, I did not write it to say one ought to buy and never sell. In investing, I encourage the concept that one must look to relative valuations and trade assets that are worth less for those that are worth more. In doing so, one maintains exposure to the...
Buy-and-Hold Can’t Die, Redux
When I wrote my piece last night, I did not write it to say one ought to buy and never sell. In investing, I encourage the concept that one must look to relative valuations and trade assets that are worth less for those that are worth more. In doing so, one maintains exposure to the...
Musings on the “400% Man”
When I read the following article at SmartMoney, I said to myself. “I have done almost as well, I am more diversified, and I am willing to explain more of what I do.” Truth is, clever investors, or lucky investors can get an attitude, saying that they don’t have to explain themselves to outsiders. Not...
Industry Ranks February 2012
I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis. My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are cold. Red industries are hot. If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the...
What’s Up? What’s Down?
I can’t remember who gave me this idea, but sometimes I troll through the raw PPI data to get ideas on pricing power. Here’s a list of the top 50 rising items in the PPI: Code 2011 Px Increase Commodity Name WPU01130102 125.3% Dry pinto beans WPU01710802 109.8% Checks and undergrades WPU023307 90.7% Liquid raw...
Industry Ranks January 2012
I’m working on my quarterly reshaping — where I choose new companies to enter my portfolio. The first part of this is industry analysis. My main industry model is illustrated in the graphic. Green industries are cold. Red industries are hot. If you like to play momentum, look at the red zone, and ask the...
The Rules, Part XXVII, and, Seeming Cheapness vs Margin of Safety
The market takes action against firms that carry positions bigger than their funding base can handle. Temporarily, things may look good as the position is established, because the price rises as the position shifts from being a marginal part of the market to a structural part of the market. After that happens, valuation-motivated sellers appear...
Returns on Equity Amid the Financial Crisis, Response
I appreciate constructive criticism. I particularly appreciate comments at this blog, regarding my long article on how return on equity changed during the financial crisis. The reviewer said, In a world in which I didn’t have only 20 minutes to read, analyze and write about this paper, I’d like to think through his model choices....
