...results from simple tests suggest that relatively strong (weak) growth in utility patent applications may indicate stock market weakness (strength) the next few years, but the tendency appears not to be robust enough for investors to depend upon it.
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Two charts added to “Market Models”, a backtest of the 6-month forecasts and a current valuation map, offer context for the projections from the Reversion-to-Value (RTV) Model and the Real Earnings Yield (REY) Model of the U.S. stock ...
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The descriptions of the Reversion-to-Value (RTV) Model and the Real Earnings Yield (REY) Model of the U.S. stock market now incorporate data available through July 2010.
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...evidence indicates that portfolios constructed from ranking stocks based on complex valuation metrics may materially outperform those constructed from simple valuation metrics.
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...current S&P earnings data indicate a return to generational "normal" for 12-month trailing valuation ratios.
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...evidence indicates that investors may be able to earn abnormal returns by exploiting systematic outperformance (underperformance) of stocks with very low (high) historical accrual volatilities.
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...Scott Phillips' Buying at the Point of Maximum Pessimism offers six long-term investing themes based on extrapolation of some major global sociopolitical and economic trends.
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...simple U.S. stock market valuation metrics currently indicate (perhaps extreme) undervaluation, but these indications involve considerable uncertainty.
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...evidence indicates that riding industry asset bubbles (guided only by information on returns and fundamentals from the past ten years) may be an attractive investing strategy. Evidence does not support shorting bubbles.
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...evidence indicates that investors may be able to exploit gross profits-to-assets as a predictor of individual stock returns, especially within industry. The effect is comparable in magnitude and complimentary to book-to-market, such that combining them is especially powerful.
TweetMeme – Finance