That US fiscal cliff hangs over a pile of recessionary rocks below
The fiscal cliff and “Taxmageddon” are terms for what might happen at the end of this year, when various US tax cuts and benefits expire, and the automatic “sequestration”...
"The Irresponsibility of Speaker John Boehner"
Stan Collender is very unhappy with John Boehner: The Irresponsibility of Speaker John Boehner, by Stan Collender: ...Speaker John Boehner’s (R-Ohio) choreographed events last week in which he repeatedly said he would prevent the debt ceiling increase that will be...
Fiscal Policy Works
Paul Krugman: None So Blind: As those who will not see. Eddie Lazear has an op-ed in the WSJ on the fiscal cliff that, among other things, pooh-poohs any concerns that sudden cuts in spending might hurt the economy. He...
Are You Feeling Lucky?
Give all the uncertainties about Europe, and additional worries about other things such as oil prices, if we could buy insurance against future economic problems, now would be a good time to do it. Oh wait, we can. That insurance...
The Need for Countervailing Power
(Though it won't post until later, I may as well try to do something while I sit in this airplane seat.) Like Brad DeLong, before the recession started I could not have imagined that policymakers would fail to put the...
"The Zero Lower Bound and Output Gap Uncertainty"
I've argued again and again that the costs associated with policy errors are asymmetric, and that we'd be better off making the mistake of doing too much rather than too little. This was based on the claim that the costs...
"Incredulous and Horrified"
Jonathon Portes bangs his head against the wall over economic policy in the UK: Four charts and why history will judge us harshly, Not the Treasury View: When I'm asked in interview or articles to sum up concisely why I...
How Are U.S. Workers Using the Payroll Tax Cut?
This study from Basit Zafar, Grant Graziani, and Wilbert van der Klaauw of the NY Fed shows that the payroll tax cuts in the stimulus package have been used mostly to pay off debt and add to savings -- around...
"The Unemployment Rate Without Government Cuts: 7.1 Percent"
Via the WSJ's Real Time Economics, a calculation of how costly the "sharp cuts in state and local government spending" have been: Unemployment Rate Without Government Cuts: 7.1%, by Justin Lahart: One reason the unemployment rate may have remained persistently...
"How to End This Depression"
I have to fight the feeling that it's too late to do much more about the unemployment problem. It's not. Unemployment is still several percentage points above the full employment level and falling slowly -- far too slow to provide...
"Gauging the Benefits, Costs, and Sustainability of U.S. Stimulus"
[Another travel day, and then hopefully back to normal tomorrow.] Did the stimulus work? According to a collaboration between Fitch Ratings and Oxford economics, the answer is yes: Government stimulus moves may have ended recession, by Jim Puzzanghera, Los Angeles...
