Parsing the Fed: How the May Statement Changed From March


This post is by Becky Bowers from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the May statement compared with March.
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = “0” ]
RELATED

Trump Repeats Calls for Fed to Stimulate Growth (April 30)

Inflation Is Likely to Fuel Discussion as Fed Officials Meet (April 29)

Fed Officials Contemplate Thresholds for Rate Cuts (April 20)

Parsing the Fed: How the March Statement Changed From January


This post is by Becky Bowers from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the March statement compared with January.
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = “0” ]
RELATED

Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged; Signals No More Increases Likely This Year

Federal Reserve Interest-Rate Decision—Live Analysis

Loans Get Cheaper for Some

Get Our Real Time Economics Calendar


This post is by WSJ Staff from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




We’re testing a downloadable calendar we will update regularly with the most important economic data releases and events, such as monthly jobs reports and Federal Reserve policy meetings.

You’ll find concise previews, forecasts and analysis in the calendar entries, which we’ll keep up-to-date with fresh details and links to our coverage.

We won’t bombard you—just a few key items per week, along with the analysis you expect from Real Time Economics.

  • To add to your Google Calendar on desktop, use this link.
  • To add to your mobile calendar app (Google, Apple or Outlook), use this link.
  • If you prefer to view the calendar using a web browser, with the option of adding select entries to your calendar, use this link.

 

We appreciate your feedback on this pilot project. Please email us at realtimeeconomics@wsj.com.

Parsing the Fed: How the January Statement Changed From December


This post is by Tim Hanrahan from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the January statement compared with December.
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = “0” ]
RELATED

Plain-Spoken Fed Chairman Sometimes Leaves Markets Confused (Jan. 29)

A $4 Trillion Scapegoat for Market Volatility: the Fed’s Shrinking Portfolio (Jan. 28)

Fed Officials Weigh Earlier-Than-Expected End to Bond Portfolio Runoff (Jan. 25)

Real Time Economics: The State of the Economy and of Economics


This post is by Greg Ip from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

Good morning! This is Greg Ip with a roundup of the latest news plus a report from Nerdfest 2019, otherwise known as the annual meeting of the American Economic Association in Atlanta. 

COMING IN FOR A SOFT LANDING

The Federal Reserve has been raising interest rates to soft-land the economy—slow its growth by just enough to keep inflation contained, but not so much that it slips into recession. Historically, this process almost always roils markets. In 1994 and again in 2016, it did not lead to recession. In 2001 and 2008, it did.  The Fed hopes for a 1994 or 2016 but knows the markets are worried about a 2008. On Friday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell suggested monetary tightening might pause, telling the American Economic Association, “With Continue reading “Real Time Economics: The State of the Economy and of Economics”

Real Time Economics: The China Shock | Is The Fed Done?


This post is by Greg Ip from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

Good morning! Greg Ip here, looking at the implications for the world of a slowing Chinese economy, collapsing expectations of further Fed rate increases, and the shutdown’s impact on tax refunds.

IF CHINA SNEEZES, DOES WORLD CATCH COLD?

Bad news keeps seeping out of China. In November, retail sales growth hit a 15 year-low and consumption tax revenue nose-dived. In December, factory activity contracted  for the first time in more than a year. Wednesday, Apple lowered projected revenue because of slumping Chinese sales. Weak Chinese growth didn’t used to matter much to the world because it imported far less than it exported. No longer: In 2017 China accounted for 10% of the world’s imports. A slowdown and bungled devaluation in 2015-16 hit commodity prices and helped hobble U.S. shale investment. Continue reading “Real Time Economics: The China Shock | Is The Fed Done?”

Real Time Economics: Powell Follows the Data, Not the Market


This post is by Greg Ip from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of a special edition of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The Fed raises rates and slightly lowers the path of future increases. This is Greg Ip, the Journal’s chief economics commentator, to bring you the details and analysis.

POWELL FOLLOWS THE DATA, NOT THE MARKET

The Fed tightened by the expected quarter of a point, to between 2.25% and 2.5%, while projecting two instead of three more increases next year. This qualifies as a “dovish” hike–barely. It’s not a pause: The Fed has signaled flexibility on how fast rates go up, but not whether they go up. The Fed still  “judges that some further gradual increases” are coming, slightly less hawkish than in November when it “expect[ed] … further gradual increases.” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is not trained as an economist, but this

♦
♦
♦
♦

Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Powell Follows the Data, Not the Market”

Parsing the Fed: How the December Statement Changed From November


This post is by Becky Bowers from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the December statement compared with November.
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = “0” ]
RELATED

Live Analysis of the Fed’s Interest-Rate Decision

Borrowers See Rates Rise Unevenly Ahead of Fed’s Move

Smaller Fed Moves Have Bigger Market Impacts (Dec. 18)

President Trump Bashes the Fed. This Is How the Fed Chief Responds. (Nov. 30)

Some Fed Bond Purchases Spurred Hiring, Central Bank Paper Says


This post is by Paul Kiernan from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




WASHINGTON—At least some of the Federal Reserve’s bond buying in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis bolstered employment, according to a recent paper by staffers at the central bank’s board of governors.

The third round of such purchases, also known as quantitative easing, starting in late 2012, spurred banks with large holdings of mortgage-backed securities to lend more to companies, authors Stephan Luck and Tom Zimmermann found. Shortly thereafter, U.S. counties with such banks saw faster employment growth—up to 0.4 percentage point more per quarter—than counties where banks held fewer mortgage-backed securities.

Employment growth in the two sets of counties was similar for more than 18 quarters before the implementation of QE3, as the program was known.

The findings come as policy makers continue to debate the full impact of the unconventional stimulus measures taken by the Fed after interest rates, reduced to near zero by the end Continue reading “Some Fed Bond Purchases Spurred Hiring, Central Bank Paper Says”

Parsing the Fed: How the November Statement Changed From September


This post is by Becky Bowers from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the November statement compared with September.
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = “0” ]
RELATED

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals More Rate Increases Ahead

Federal Reserve Likely to Keep Interest Rates Steady

How Can the Field of Economics Diversify? Here Are Janet Yellen’s Thoughts


This post is by Sarah Chaney from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




To help economics become a field of more diverse thought, perhaps the profession should take a look at what sorts of research is rewarded, former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen contends.

On a panel at a Pathways to Gender Equality conference in Washington, D.C., Friday, Ms. Yellen, the first female chief of the central bank in its more than 100-year history, emphasized the importance of diversifying economic research methods and topics.

The economics profession, Ms. Yellen said, tends to value mathematical modeling and is increasingly becoming a harder science, which could be biasing economists against new ideas.

“What’s happened in economics is that anything that could be called anecdotal or case study types of methods are simply ruled out,” Ms. Yellen said. “To my mind this is a serious methodological bias that is blinding the profession to very important phenomena.”

Ms. Yellen highlighted economists’ failure to predict Continue reading “How Can the Field of Economics Diversify? Here Are Janet Yellen’s Thoughts”

Parsing the Fed: How the September Statement Changed From August


This post is by Becky Bowers from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the September statement compared with August.
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = “0” ]
RELATED

As Fed Raises Rates, Consumers Have Yet to Feel the Sting

Parsing the Fed: How the August Statement Changed From June


This post is by Becky Bowers from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the August statement compared with June.
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = “0” ]
RELATED

Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Says Economy Is Strong

Federal Reserve Likely to Keep Rates Steady

Fed Looks for Goldilocks Path as Jobless Rate Drops (July 29)

Parsing the Fed: How the June Statement Changed From May


This post is by Becky Bowers from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the June statement compared with May.
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = “0” ]
RELATED

Fed Raises Rates and Signals Faster Pace in Coming Years

Federal Reserve Interest-Rate Decision—Live Analysis

The Fed’s Biggest Dilemma: Is the Booming Job Market a Problem?

Borrowing Costs Climb Along With Fed Rate Increases

Why Student-Loan Delinquency Is Falling


This post is by Sarah Chaney from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




The share of new delinquencies on student loans has fallen to the lowest level in more than decade—and it’s not just due to the healthy labor market.

In the first quarter, slightly over 9% of student debt outstanding was newly delinquent, based on Federal Reserve Bank of New York figures smoothed for seasonal volatility. The student-loan delinquency rate is still far higher than rates for any other type of consumer debt and would be much higher if it excluded certain borrowers, such as students still in school, who do not have to make any payments.

Still, the rate for new delinquencies on student loans has fallen steadily in recent years.

Several factors are likely behind the decline. Unemployment, at 3.9% in April, is at its lowest point since late 2000, and economic growth picked up over the past year, while wages are rising. More borrowers are likely in a Continue reading “Why Student-Loan Delinquency Is Falling”

Parsing the Fed: How the May Statement Changed From March


This post is by Becky Bowers from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the May statement compared with March.
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = “0” ]
RELATED

Fed Holds Rates Steady, Sees Strong Growth in Hiring and Investment

Fed Likely on Hold, but Rising Inflation to Be in Focus

How Does a Tight Labor Market Drive Up Prices You Pay? Just Visit Your Local Hair Salon


This post is by Sarah Chaney and Sharon Nunn from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




Step into a Sport Clips Inc. franchise and you can expect to see hairdressers washing, cutting and styling hair. Behind these daily hair-salon operations, a key economic theory is playing out: the Phillips curve.

Multiple franchise owners are jacking up or plan to raise wages to attract scarce hairdressing talent and are increasing haircut prices to compensate for it. This fits the classic Phillips curve model, which predicts wages and inflation will rise in response to a tight labor market. In theory, it should be happening to the overall U.S. economy, but it hasn’t.

Economists say powerful factors such as an aging population, technology, sluggish productivity growth and overseas competition could be restraining the relationship between the unemployment rate and inflation.

When the relationship is functioning, here’s how it works:

Steel Tariffs Likely to Lead to U.S. Job Losses, Fed Economists Find


This post is by Michael S. Derby from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




U.S. tariffs on steel imports are likely to cost the American economy jobs, according to new research from Federal Reserve Bank of New York economists.

“Although it is difficult to say exactly how many jobs will be affected, given the history of protecting industries with import tariffs, we can conclude that the 25% steel tariff is likely to cost more jobs than it saves,” the economists said in a Thursday posting on the New York Fed’s Liberty Street Economics blog. “The new tariffs are likely to lead to a net loss in U.S. employment, at least in the short to medium run.”

The research comes a day after the Federal Reserve said U.S. businesses reported rising steel prices due to the new tariffs.

The Trump administration in March launched global tariffs on steel and aluminum, although imports from some countries have been exempted. The administration Continue reading “Steel Tariffs Likely to Lead to U.S. Job Losses, Fed Economists Find”

Parsing the Fed: How the March Statement Changed From January


This post is by Becky Bowers from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving.

This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the March statement compared with January.
[wsj-responsive-sandbox id = “0” ]
RELATED

Federal Reserve Interest-Rate Decision—Live Analysis

Fed Set to Raise Rates, Issue New Economic Projections

Consumer Borrowing Costs Edge Higher as Fed Keeps Raising Rates