Crossroads
This is a confusing time: Lousy fiscal policy — way too much borrowing by the government Lousy monetary policy — way too much expansion of the monetary base, and for little good reason, and funding the deficits of the government as a result… Negative real interest rates on Treasuries 15 years out; that is financial...
The Best of the Aleph Blog, Part 15
This stretches from August 2010 to October 2010: The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part VII On the value of credit analysts. The Education of a Corporate Bond Manager, Part VIII On price discovery in dealer markets, and auctions gone wrong. I never knew that I could haggle so well. The Education of a...
Sorted Weekly Tweets
Market Dynamics On Paradigm Shifts http://t.co/h68quEDX Hunter takes us through mental exercises 2 make us intelligently contrarian. “Invert, Always Invert” May 02, 2012 Hedgers’ net short position vanishes in US oil http://t.co/X0hLOWGB Commercial interests do not fear lower prices, could be bullish 4 crude May 02, 2012 There’s Plenty of Money for Junk http://t.co/vXML0Bao...
Weekly Sorted Tweeets
Federal Reserve Long Term U.S. Credit Boom Chart http://t.co/Ywub8HQH By bailing out short-term credit cycles, the Fed created a big asset bubble $$ Apr 28, 2012 Quantitative Deleting: The Fed’s $400 Billion ‘Gift’ http://t.co/qavtYcQy Fed’s actions lower cost of funding the US Treasury’s deficit 4now Apr 26, 2012 Bernanke Takes On Krugman’s Criticism Ignoring...
Redacted Version of the April 2012 FOMC Statement
March 2012 April 2012 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. No real change. Labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate...
Redacted Version of the April 2012 FOMC Statement
March 2012 April 2012 Comments Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that the economy has been expanding moderately. No real change. Labor market conditions have improved further; the unemployment rate...
Sorted Weekly Tweets
Busy week last week. Here’s the economic and other news: =-=-=-=-=-=–=-=-==-=-=-==-=-=-=-=–==-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=-=- China Bloomberg: Inflated Notions http://t.co/hvMoIFH6 Patrick Chovanec questions whether Chinese economic statistics are correct. $$ Apr 22, 2012 China’s Political Stability Questioned, while Deposit Withdrawals Accelerate http://t.co/X9kJ9oZb Deposits exit China’s banks; many worry $$ Apr 22, 2012 Asia dominates new treasury purchases http://t.co/BXvgGQRi...
Book Review: Currency Wars
I sometimes call it “the race to the bottom.” During a time where most nations are feeling economically weak, some decide to weaken their currency, so that their exporters can do better, which supposedly preserves jobs in export industries. Producers have concentrated interests, and lobby well. The interests of consumers are diffuse, and don’t...
Sorted Weekly Tweets
Valuations High Yield Closed End Funds 68% over NAV, 3% avg premium. Loan Participation CEFs 40% over NAV, -1% avg discount. Conditions r medium hot $$ Apr 07, 2012 Why Stocks Look Too Pricey http://t.co/TWqZzGg3 Various Indicators Suggest the Market Is No Longer a Bargain, at best fairly valued $$ Apr 07, 2012 Contra:...
Gold does Nothing
Gold does nothing, and as Warren Buffett said in his recent annual report: Today the world’s gold stock is about 170,000 metric tons. If all of this gold were melded together, it would form a cube of about 68 feet per side. (Picture it fitting comfortably within a baseball infield.) At $1,750 per ounce –...
Easy in, Hard out
My view is that there is no such thing as a free lunch, not even for governments or central banks. Any action taken may have benefits, but also imposes costs, even if those costs are imposed upon others. So it is for the Fed. At the beginning of 2008, they had a small, clean, low...
Sorted Weekly Tweets
China China’s first bond default could be good market medicine http://t.co/8ShFniYM Bond trader: “We don’t really have a credit risk culture.” $$ Mar 31, 2012 Is China’s slowdown worse than previously estimated? http://t.co/CkZw8tLK Could b business conditions that are worst since 2009. $$ Mar 31, 2012 China Banks Said to Underestimate Local Government...
