5 Things to Watch in the June Jobs Report

The Labor Department releases its broadest measure of the job market on Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the June report to show employers added 195,000 jobs and the unemployment rate stayed at 3.8%, holding at the lowest level since April 2000. Here are four things to look for in the report, and one to watch before. 1. Will POTUS Tweet? President Donald Trump broke from decades of White House protocol and tweeted about the May jobs report about an hour before its public release last month. Mr. Trump typically gets a preview the day before the report comes out, and his positive statement ahead of the numbers sent bond yields and the value of the dollar higher. This time around, investors and economists will be keeping a careful eye on Mr. Trump’s Twitter handle on Thursday and Friday morning–he’s likely to get a preview from advisers Continue reading "5 Things to Watch in the June Jobs Report"

Real Time Economics: U.S. Workers Are Quitting Their Jobs. That’s Good For The Economy

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning! Today we look at the latest developments in the labor market ahead of Friday’s U.S. jobs report, China’s warning on trade, how global commerce is slowing even before tariffs take effect, the great American cheddar glut, and what to watch in minutes from the Federal Reserve’s latest meeting.  WORK VS. RETIREMENT A 3.8% unemployment rate shows the U.S. is facing the tightest labor market in two decades. Why then aren’t more people looking for a job? Perhaps Baby Boomers’ decision to work isn’t closely tied to the availability of jobs. The share of Americans working or seeking work has been stubbornly stuck at or below 63% in recent years, despite falling unemployment. For people between 25 and 54 years old, participation in the labor force Continue reading "Real Time Economics: U.S. Workers Are Quitting Their Jobs. That’s Good For The Economy"

Where is Joblessness the Lowest? Hint: Cities With College Students and Tourists

Hawaii and Iowa are home to four of the top five cities with the lowest unemployment rates in the country, according to fresh data from the Labor Department. Iowa’s booming college towns, Hawaii’s tourist havens and Fort Collins, Colo.’s blossoming tech sector are pulling down their local unemployment rates and driving employers to extreme measures to entice and retain talent. Here’s a breakdown of their current job situations: Iowa’s Ames and Iowa City took the top two spots. The cities are home to large public universities, Iowa State University with more than 36,000 students in 2017 and the University of Iowa, which enrolled almost 34,000 students last year. Such college towns have been called recession resistant because they tend to fare better than the broader economy during downturns. Iowa as a whole has recently experienced a labor shortage. The state is in the only region in the U.S. Continue reading "Where is Joblessness the Lowest? Hint: Cities With College Students and Tourists"

Real Time Economics: China Works to Skirt Steel Tariffs; Domestic Opposition Picks Up

This is the web version of the WSJ’s economic newsletter. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning! Today we look at China’s plans to keep flooding the global steel market, friendly fire for Trump’s tariffs, a warning for Canada’s economy, the dollar’s direction, and how U.S. oil got stranded in…the U.S. NECESSITY, MEET INVENTION The U.S. is building a tariff wall to protect its steel industry. China is working to find a way around. For the past several years, China has been shutting production at home and expanding overseas, fueled by tens of billions of dollars from Chinese state-owned lenders and funds. By owning production abroad, Chinese steelmakers aim to gain largely unfettered access to global markets—their factories in places like Malaysia and Serbia face few antidumping tariffs, Matthew Dalton and Lingling Wei write. Even with new 25% tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, China’s moves are paying Continue reading "Real Time Economics: China Works to Skirt Steel Tariffs; Domestic Opposition Picks Up"

Why Teachers Are in Revolt

Source: The Upshot   From Upshot: the underlying conflict between public school employees and policymakers has roots in decisions made during the last recession, when states and local districts short of cash curtailed education spending for the first time in decades. This had a pronounced effect on school staffing, with layoffs hitting many states. Districts… Read More The post Why Teachers Are in Revolt appeared first on The Big Picture.

Real Time Economics: U.S. Goes It Alone On Trade, Economy Powers Ahead

This is the web version of the WSJ’s economic newsletter. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning! Today we look at the increasingly isolated U.S. position in trade talks, a robust American economy, early fallout from tariffs, and a Swiss referendum to blow up one of the foundational features of global finance. “UNANIMOUS CONCERN AND DISAPPOINTMENT” The U.S. is looking more and more isolated. Top finance officials from the Group of Seven leading nations issued a rare public rebuke of Washington’s steel and aluminum tariffs Saturday, expressing their “unanimous concern and disappointment.” The following day in China, Beijing said it wouldn’t buy more American products if the U.S. goes ahead with another round of tariffs on Chinese imports. Still, the Trump administration showed no sign of backing down. “When you’re almost 800 Billion Dollars a year down on Trade, you can’t lose a Trade War!” Continue reading "Real Time Economics: U.S. Goes It Alone On Trade, Economy Powers Ahead"

Unemployment U3, U6 (2008-2018)

Just a quick note about today’s NFP data. (I will leave any discussion about the inappropriate  telegraph by the low Impulse-Control President to others). Before anyone can take too much credit for today’s print, a quick reminder of how we got here:   U3 Unemployment  click for ginormous chart charts courtesy of Invictus   U6 Unemployment chart… Read More The post Unemployment U3, U6 (2008-2018) appeared first on The Big Picture.

The May Jobs Report in 8 Charts

The U.S. unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8%, the lowest reading since April 2000, and employers added 223,000 jobs in May. Broader measures of unemployment and underemployment, including discouraged workers who have stopped job hunting, as well as part-time employees who would like full-time work, also moved down the past month. All four alternative measures of joblessness are at their lowest level since the recession. Wage growth picked up in May for both weekly and hourly wages. Both measures are near, but not quite at, their fastest pace in recent years. Over the past year, the number of jobs increased by 1.6%, a rising pace from a few months ago but slower than in 2015. The share of Americans either working or looking for work, known as the labor-force participation rate, fell slightly last month. The rate has trended downward over the past decade largely due to Continue reading "The May Jobs Report in 8 Charts"

May Jobs Report – The Numbers

Daniel Acker/Bloomberg
Unemployment Rate 3.8% The jobless rate in May dropped to 3.8%, matching April 2000 as the lowest reading since the 1960s. The unemployment rate had been 4.1% for six months before dipping to 3.9% in April, the first sub-4% unemployment rate since late 2000. A historically low unemployment rate and modest wage increases should keep Federal Reserve policy makers in line to raise the central bank’s benchmark interest rate at a meeting later this month. Payroll Growth 223,000 The U.S. economy added a robust 223,000 jobs in May, bucking many economists’ expectations that hiring should slow in a tightening labor market. May’s payrolls figure is much stronger than the 190,000 jobs economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected. Employment trended upward in industries including retail, health care and construction. Revised figures show payrolls were upwardly revised a net 15,000 in March Continue reading "May Jobs Report – The Numbers"

Real Time Economics: Friends, Neighbors Prepare to Strike Back at U.S. Tariffs

This is the web version of the WSJ’s economic newsletter. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning! Today we look at the mounting economic cost of U.S. tariffs, the steady-as-she-goes U.S. economy, and why now is one of the best times to be a high-school dropout. U.S. IMPOSES TARIFFS, ALLIES RETALIATE The Trump administration’s tariffs on steel and aluminum prompted swift pledges of retaliation and raised the prospect of a global trade war. Canada, Mexico and the European Union are all planning to hit back against U.S.-made metals, farm products and other goods. Stocks tumbled after the tariff announcement, though the immediate economic impact will be muted. Things start to add up when you pile on tariffs aimed at China ($50 billion related to intellectual property abuses and another $100 billion in penalties on the way). Barclays’s Tomasz Wieladek estimates the steel tariffs and retaliation Continue reading "Real Time Economics: Friends, Neighbors Prepare to Strike Back at U.S. Tariffs"

5 Things to Watch in the May Jobs Report

The Labor Department releases its latest view of the job market Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect it to show employers added 190,000 jobs in May and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.9%, the lowest level since December 2000. Here are five things to look for in the report. 1. Show of strength Over the past 12 months, employers have added 190,000 jobs, on average, each month. Economists project that to continue—on the nose. That’s significant because the broader expectation is for hiring to slow as workers become more scarce. But the pace of hiring has edged up since last fall, a sign the record streak of job growth won’t come to an end anytime soon. 2. Attracting and retaining One reason employers have been able to hire is the share of Americans working or looking for work has started to edge up after a long Continue reading "5 Things to Watch in the May Jobs Report"

Real Time Economics: Why Markets Love the Fed Minutes and Hate Auto Tariffs

This is the web version of the WSJ’s economic newsletter. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning! Today, our Fed watcher, Nick Timiraos, digs into the newly dovish Fed take on inflation, we look at potential new U.S. tariffs on auto imports, and find employers using putting greens and craft beer to lure workers into the plumbing industry. JUST WAIT A MINUTE Stocks and bonds rallied strongly on the release of minutes from the Fed’s May meeting thanks to new hints that officials are relaxed about inflation​, WSJ Fed watcher Nick Timiraos tells us​. First, the minutes detail a discussion in which officials saw “a temporary period of inflation modestly above 2%” as “helpful in anchoring longer-run inflation expectations.” That reinforces prior signals that inflation over 2% won’t bother them: they’ve emphasized their inflation target is symmetric, meaning they won’t dial up rate increases if inflation rises above Continue reading "Real Time Economics: Why Markets Love the Fed Minutes and Hate Auto Tariffs"

Real Time Economics: Why Markets Love the Fed Minutes and Hate Auto Tariffs

This is the web version of the WSJ’s economic newsletter. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning! Today, our Fed watcher, Nick Timiraos, digs into the newly dovish Fed take on inflation, we look at potential new U.S. tariffs on auto imports, and find employers using putting greens and craft beer to lure workers into the plumbing industry. JUST WAIT A MINUTE Stocks and bonds rallied strongly on the release of minutes from the Fed’s May meeting thanks to new hints that officials are relaxed about inflation​, WSJ Fed watcher Nick Timiraos tells us​. First, the minutes detail a discussion in which officials saw “a temporary period of inflation modestly above 2%” as “helpful in anchoring longer-run inflation expectations.” That reinforces prior signals that inflation over 2% won’t bother them: they’ve emphasized their inflation target is symmetric, meaning they won’t dial up rate increases if inflation rises above Continue reading "Real Time Economics: Why Markets Love the Fed Minutes and Hate Auto Tariffs"

What Happened in Steel Cities After Trump’s Tariff Plans? Weak Hiring

Employment in each of America’s top 10 steel cities has grown slower than the rate of growth for the U.S. as a whole since President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs on steel and aluminum imports earlier this year. Metro areas in the nation’s Rust Belt, like Youngstown, Ohio, and Huntington, W. Va., saw their employment decline in February and March from the previous year, while others, including Mobile, Ala., notched growth below the overall U.S.’s rate. Four of the nation’s 10 metro areas with the largest share of jobs in steel manufacturing saw job declines of up to 1.35%, while the other six saw sluggish growth of about 0.7%, well below the nation’s 1.6% growth. The Trump administration in March announced plans to institute broad tariffs of 25% on steel and 10% on aluminum products. The Labor Department jobs figures provide Continue reading "What Happened in Steel Cities After Trump’s Tariff Plans? Weak Hiring"

Which Jobs Are Workers Most Willing to Move For? These Ones

Workers are most willing to move for technology jobs in big, expensive coastal cities, a new study found. The only problem? Those aren’t the bulk of open jobs in the U.S. Firms in cities such as San Francisco, New York and San Jose are attracting the most out-of-area job candidates, according to a new study from recruiting site Glassdoor. And those applicants are most interested in engineering and other high-tech positions. That relatively narrow focus among potentially mobile workers is a problem when the national job market is as tight as it’s been in two decades, shown by the 3.9% unemployment rate last month. Separate Labor Department data shows the highest rate of job openings is in the Midwest—not the East or West Coast. And the health-care, hospitality and retail industries have among the most severe worker shortages, according to the government. “Job seekers seem to be Continue reading "Which Jobs Are Workers Most Willing to Move For? These Ones"

Real Time Economics: Business Investment Soars | Trump Nears a Deal With China | Job Switchers Get the Biggest Raises

This is the web version of the WSJ’s economic newsletter. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning! Today we look at booming capex, the latest developments in the U.S.-China trade saga, Germany’s cooling economy, Poles and Hungarians exiting the U.K. workforce, and who’s getting the biggest raises. CAPITAL SPENDING BOOMS U.S. companies are ramping up spending on their businesses at the fastest pace since 2011. Spending on factories, equipment and other capital expenditures by companies in the S&P 500 is expected to have risen 24% in the first quarter, Akane Otani, Ben Eisen and Chelsey Dulaney report. Capex is good for the broader economy, helping boost short-term GDP numbers and laying the foundation for future growth. Yet history suggests it could also pressure share prices—leaving investors questioning whether it is worthwhile to bet on companies with costly projects that may not pan out.
Comments or suggestions for Real Time Economics? Continue reading "Real Time Economics: Business Investment Soars | Trump Nears a Deal With China | Job Switchers Get the Biggest Raises"

Real Time Economics: Trump’s Lifeline to China | U.S. Readies Sanctions on Europeans | Gasoline Heads Toward $3

This is the web version of the WSJ’s economic newsletter. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning! Today we look at President Trump’s lifeline to ZTE, corporate America’s conflicting views on tariffs, U.S. plans to sanction European companies, pressure on U.S. automakers to create more jobs, and Italy’s new anti-establishment coalition. PHONE A FRIEND U.S.-China trade tensions eased. President Donald Trump said he was working with President Xi Jinping to keep ZTE Corp. in business. It’s an extraordinary lifeline to the Chinese telecommunication giant. ZTE had shut down major operations after the Commerce Department blocked U.S. companies from selling components to the firm. Mr. Trump said in a tweet that he is working with Mr. Xi to get ZTE “a way to get back into business, fast. Too many jobs in China lost,” Dan Strumpf and John D. McKinnon report. The president said the Continue reading "Real Time Economics: Trump’s Lifeline to China | U.S. Readies Sanctions on Europeans | Gasoline Heads Toward $3"