Real Time Economics: China Retaliates, U.S. Prepares to Escalate


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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The U.S.-China trade fight is heating up and Amazon is giving employees money to quit. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

U.S.-China: It’s Getting Hot In Here

The U.S.-China trade dispute is escalating.

  • Beijing retaliated against higher U.S. tariffs with plans to increase levies on $60 billion in U.S. imports.
  • Washington laid out nearly $300 billion of new Chinese imports that would face 25% levies as early as this summer.
  • President Trump said he plans to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping next month when he is in Japan for a Group of 20 summit. That might be the best chance for Continue reading “Real Time Economics: China Retaliates, U.S. Prepares to Escalate”

Real Time Economics: U.S. and China Hit a Wall


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Today we take deep dives into the U.S.-China trade fight and what worker pay is telling us about the labor market. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

U.S.-China: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

  • The good: The U.S. and China are still talking. China invited U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin to Beijing to continue trade negotiations.
  • The bad: The two nations haven’t found a formula for successful negotiations, and the U.S. officials haven’t even firmed up plans to travel yet.
  • Bridging the trade rift may ultimately depend on the personal chemistry between President Trump and Continue reading “Real Time Economics: U.S. and China Hit a Wall”

Real Time Economics: U.S. Hits China With Tariffs as Trade Talks Continue


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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Trade tensions are rising, economists expect faster wage gains, growth in Europe is looking up and closely watched U.S. inflation data is out early today. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Trade Fight Heats Up

The U.S. increased tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to 25% Friday. The hike went into force hours after U.S. and Chinese negotiators met in hopes of getting troubled trade talks back on track. Discussions are set to resume today, Bob Davis and Josh Zumbrun report.

Real Time Economics: U.S. Readies Tariffs, China Prepares Retaliation


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. We have a full rundown of U.S.-China trade talks, reader feedback on tariffs and a look at Walmart’s $175,000-a-year store managers. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

China Plays Hardball

China’s new hard line in trade talks surprised the White House and threatens to derail negotiations. Why did they change tack? Beijing interpreted recent statements and actions by President Trump as a sign the U.S. was ready to make concessions, Lingling Wei and Bob Davis report.

Real Time Economics: Trump Threatens to Ramp Up China Tariffs


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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The White House is escalating with China and the Federal Reserve, nations around the globe are running a real-time minimum wage experiment, and the gig economy is struggling with a tight labor market. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here with the day’s top economic news. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

TARIFF MAN RETURNS

President Trump threatened to ramp up U.S. tariffs on Chinese imports. The surprise announcement puts in doubt a quick accord between the world’s two biggest economies, Bob Davis, Rebecca Ballhaus and Lingling Wei report.

Real Time Economics: Hiring Picks Up, Unemployment Drops Down


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to a near half-century low of 3.6% in April. Jeff Sparshott and Greg Ip here to take you through some of the numbers.

A CAUTIONARY NOTE ON SUPPLY-SIDE REVIVAL

A pickup in labor force and productivity growth in the last year had suggested the economy’s supply side—the ultimate determinant of long-run prosperity—is awakening from a decadelong slumber. However, the April jobs report raises a cautionary note. The drop in the unemployment rate to a near-50 year low was helped by a big decline in the labor force from the prior month. From a year earlier the labor force grew 0.6%, down sharply from 1.6% in December. The share of the population participating in the labor market Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Hiring Picks Up, Unemployment Drops Down”

Charts: Hiring Accelerates and Unemployment Falls in April


This post is by Harriet Torry and Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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U.S. employers added 263,000 jobs and the unemployment rate fell to a near half-century low of 3.6% in April.

The total number of nonfarm payroll jobs rose by 1.76% over the past year. The strong April jobs report marks a pickup after a mixed winter for hiring, with strong payroll gains in December and January, followed by a weak February and better job growth in March.

Weekly wage growth slowed in April, to a 2.9% year-over-year pace. That’s the first time it slipped below the 3% mark since January 2018. Hourly wages increased at a 3.2% pace over the past year in April, the same as in March.

In good news for workers, some of the Labor Department’s broader measures of unemployment declined in April. Still, the broadest measure of underemployment, which also includes part-time workers who would like full-time work, has been unchanged since Continue reading “Charts: Hiring Accelerates and Unemployment Falls in April”

Real Time Economics: U.S. Workers Are Finally Getting More Productive


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

It’s jobs day! We’ll have a special edition of our newsletter after the U.S. employment report is out. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

SOLVING THE PRODUCTIVITY PUZZLE

U.S. worker productivity improved during the past year at the best pace in nearly a decade. If sustained, that would help lay the groundwork for stronger wage growth and continued economic expansion, Eric Morath reports.

Real Time Economics: What Is Wage Growth Telling Us About the Labor Market?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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The Federal Reserve is expected to leave rates on hold today, home-price growth slowed to its lowest level in nearly seven years and the government is quietly revolutionizing the way it collects economic data. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

MAYBE THE LABOR MARKET ISN’T HISTORICALLY TIGHT

U.S. workers’ paychecks improved solidly in the past year—but wage gains remain soft compared to two other periods when the unemployment rate held at historically low levels. When adjusting for inflation, hourly pay for nonsupervisors was up 2.4% from December 2015, when the unemployment rate began a 40-month stretch at 5% or less. In the 1990s, the unemployment rate was slightly Continue reading “Real Time Economics: What Is Wage Growth Telling Us About the Labor Market?”

Real Time Economics: More Women Go Blue Collar; Economy’s Supply Side Looking Brighter


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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What else should we be talking about in Real Time Economics? You can send questions, comments and suggestions by emailing realtimeeconomics@wsj.com.  —Jeff Sparshott

WOMEN WANTED

More women are taking blue-collar jobs in industries long dominated by men, including trucking, public safety and construction. Driving the trend: a tight labor market, relatively better pay and a growing recognition among women that they won’t be the only one in the field. The increase has been especially pronounced in transportation and material moving, a sector that includes truck drivers, delivery people and warehouse workers. The number of women in the sector grew 43% from 2000 to 2018 while the overall number of women in the workforce increased just 15%, Sarah Chaney and Eric Morath report.

Keep on truckin’. Today, nearly 9% Continue reading “Real Time Economics: More Women Go Blue Collar; Economy’s Supply Side Looking Brighter”

Real Time Economics: The Resilient American Economy


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s Monday, April 22, newsletter on the economy. Due to technical issues, online publication was delayed. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The U.S. economy is looking surprisingly solid, Fed officials are wondering when they might cut rates, and commercial tension is likely to outlast any U.S.-China trade deal. Happy Dyngus Day! Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

DON’T CALL IT A COMEBACK

The U.S. economy’s narrative has changed. First-quarter gross domestic product was looking downright putrid a couple months ago. The government shutdown, consumer caution, bad weather, the fading effects of fiscal stimulus, higher interest rates and slowing growth abroad seemed ready to push the first-quarter pace of growth down to the lowest level in years. The Atlanta Continue reading “Real Time Economics: The Resilient American Economy”

Real Time Economics: High Times, Trade Truces and Fed Independence


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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American workers are smoking more marijuana, the European Union and Japan are trying to keep the peace with President Trump, and Fed officials at least sound like they’re trying to ignore political pressure. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

BECAUSE I GOT HIGH

The share of American workers and job applicants who tested positive for marijuana climbed 10% last year, according to an analysis by Quest Diagnostics, one of the nation’s largest drug-testing laboratories. Quest found 2.3% of the analyzed samples contained traces of marijuana and 4.4% contained traces of both legal and illegal controlled substances including pot, prescription painkillers and other drugs—the highest such rate since 2004. Since Continue reading “Real Time Economics: High Times, Trade Truces and Fed Independence”

Real Time Economics: U.S.-EU Trade Tensions Escalate


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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The Trump administration is getting ready to sock Europe with tariffs, Walmart is hiring robots, and house flipping is back to bubble-era levels. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

U.S. READIES TARIFFS FOR EU

The Trump administration moved toward imposing tariffs on about $11 billion in imports from the European Union. The trigger isn’t steel or cars. It’s airplanes. The U.S. has been in litigation at the World Trade Organization over Airbus subsidies since 2004, and said it was releasing a list of items proposed for tariffs in anticipation of a WTO ruling, Josh Zumbrun reports.

Though the tariffs are in response to the WTO case, the Continue reading “Real Time Economics: U.S.-EU Trade Tensions Escalate”

Real Time Economics: U.S. Hiring Rebounds


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

U.S. employers added 196,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.8% in March, a spring bump that’s welcome news for workers, investors and the Fed. Jeff Sparshott and Greg Ip here to take you through some of the numbers and what they say about the broader economy.

SLOWDOWN? WHAT SLOWDOWN?

Three months ago, markets were concerned the Federal Reserve may have tipped the U.S. into recession. This morning’s jobs report suggests the panic was for naught. March payroll growth bounced back to a healthy 196,000 from a shutdown- and weather-distorted 33,000 in February. For the first quarter, jobs grew at 1.7% annual rate, the same as in the fourth. Unemployment ended the quarter at 3.8%, down slightly from December. Private hours worked is a Continue reading “Real Time Economics: U.S. Hiring Rebounds”

The U.S. Jobs Market Bounced Back In March


This post is by Harriet Torry and Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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U.S. employers added 196,000 jobs and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.8% in March.

The total number of nonfarm payroll jobs rose by 1.7% over the past year, a slight slowdown since the end of 2018 but still better than the rate seen a year ago.

Both weekly and hourly wages increased at a 3.2% pace over the past year. Year-over-year wage gains are well outpacing inflation, which is good news for lower-income households that are seeing their spending power increase. Year-over-year gains in weekly wages have been north of 3% for over a year now.

The share of the population that is in the labor force—defined as those working or actively searching for work—has hovered around 63% this year. The rate has been relatively flat over the past three years, defying projected declines. The share of Americans with jobs ticked slightly lower last month.

Continue reading “The U.S. Jobs Market Bounced Back In March”

Real Time Economics: Packing the Fed, Pushing for a Trade Deal and Preparing for Jobs Day


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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It’s jobs day! The March employment report is out at 8:30 a.m. ET; Greg Ip and I will follow up with a special edition of our newsletter in time for your lunch-time reading. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the day’s top economic news. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

YES WE CAIN

President Trump plans to nominate former GOP presidential candidate Herman Cain to the Federal Reserve’s board of governors. The selection, following the president’s decision to nominate his former campaign adviser Stephen Moore, marks an effort to install two Fed critics and loyal Trump supporters on the central bank’s powerful seven-seat board. The picks underscore Mr. Trump’s growing unhappiness with Fed policy under Chairman Jerome Powell, Nick Timiraos and Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Packing the Fed, Pushing for a Trade Deal and Preparing for Jobs Day”

Age of Automation


This post is by Barry Ritholtz from The Big Picture


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Automation is replacing rote, routine jobs. I am not in the camp that says we will have 40-50% unemployment rate because of it, but I do believe we will see significant turmoil in the labor markets as well as wage pressure at the lower end of income scale because of automation. Something to think about…

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The post Age of Automation appeared first on The Big Picture.

Age of Automation


This post is by Barry Ritholtz from The Big Picture


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




Automation is replacing rote, routine jobs. I am not in the camp that says we will have 40-50% unemployment rate because of it, but I do believe we will see significant turmoil in the labor markets as well as wage pressure at the lower end of income scale because of automation. Something to think about…

Read More

The post Age of Automation appeared first on The Big Picture.

Real Time Economics: Trade Talks Hang on Tariffs


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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The U.S. and China are getting closer to a deal, Friday’s employment report may tell us whether February was an unpleasant blip or the start a trend, and Germany’s factories are struggling. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the day’s top economic news. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

TARIFF TROUBLE

Tariffs have become the biggest sticking point in U.S.-China trade talks. China trade envoy Liu He, in Washington this week, is working to persuade his U.S. counterparts to remove tariffs on $250 billion of Chinese goods immediately on signing a deal. The Trump administration wants the punitive levies to remain in place to ensure Beijing enacts genuine overhauls, including fundamental changes to industrial policies, ending pressure on Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Trade Talks Hang on Tariffs”

Real Time Economics: China’s Manufacturers Rebound, Europe’s Factories Sink


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


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U.S. manufacturing data follows China and Europe this morning. We’ll also look at the jobs market, interest rates, budget deficits and the spring home-buying season. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the day’s economic news. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

GOING UP…

An official gauge of China’s manufacturing activity rose to a six-month high in March. Factories showed a pickup almost across the board, from new orders to production, according to the official purchasing managers index. And a separate, private gauge of factory activity out Monday rebounded to expansionary territory in March for the first time in four months, underscoring the turnaround.

The WSJ’s Nathaniel Taplin cautions: China’s economy may have improved modestly last month, but the jump in Continue reading “Real Time Economics: China’s Manufacturers Rebound, Europe’s Factories Sink”