Real Time Economics: Market Forces vs. Government Fiat


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

IT’S A TRAP!

U.S. semiconductor companies want no part of any trade deal that calls for stepped-up purchases from China. Washington has pressed Beijing to buy more than $1 trillion in U.S. goods and services as part of an agreement, and China has offered to buy $30 billion of U.S. chips over six years. But U.S. chip makers have told President Trump’s administration not to include them, Bob Davis reports.

Why? Because U.S. production costs are so high, mandatory-purchase quotas would essentially force U.S. chip makers to open new factories in China and give Beijing bureaucrats more sway over Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Market Forces vs. Government Fiat”

Real Time Economics: The Fed Isn’t Sure What to Do About Its Dots


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The Federal Reserve’s policy statement and press conference Wednesday are the week’s highlights. We’ll also get a big dose of housing data and more details on White House spending plans. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

HOLD ME NOW

Federal Reserve officials are likely to end their meeting this week signaling little if any appetite to raise interest rates this year, part of a strategy designed to reduce the risks of a sharp slowdown in global growth. The Fed boosted its short-term benchmark rate four times last year and as recently as December indicated as many as three more in 2019. New forecasts to be released Wednesday are likely Continue reading “Real Time Economics: The Fed Isn’t Sure What to Do About Its Dots”

Min Wage Debate: NYC Edition


This post is by Invictus from The Big Picture


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




@TBPInvictus here: With his typical mendacity, and by cherry picking his data for unsuspecting readers, Mark Perry has again muddied the waters on minimum wage. Perry begins his post with a dire chart showing the year-over-year percent change in employment for NYC’s full-service restaurants. He even provides a link to FRED, the St. Louis Fed’s…

Read More

The post Min Wage Debate: NYC Edition appeared first on The Big Picture.

Real Time Economics: U.S. Workers Get a Raise, Brexit Deal Takes a Fall


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

U.S. inflation is tame, the U.S. and China work on frenemy status, and the U.K. prime minister botches another Brexit vote. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

A FISTFUL OF DOLLARS

Tepid inflation and rising wages are leaving extra dollars in the pockets of American workers. Consumer prices rose 1.5% in February from a year earlier, the slowest pace since September 2016. That left inflation-adjusted average hourly earnings for all workers up 1.9% from a year earlier. Production and nonsupervisory employees, a narrower category that includes blue-collar workers, saw real wages rise by 2.2%, the strongest gain since late 2015, Harriet Torry reports. That Continue reading “Real Time Economics: U.S. Workers Get a Raise, Brexit Deal Takes a Fall”

The Hidden Cost Of Extending Option Exercise Periods


This post is by Fred Wilson from AVC


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




Many people in startup land believe that the answer to the challenges around forcing departing employees to exercise vested options is to simply extend the option exercise period to the maximum (ten years) allowed by the IRS.

It certainly is one of the techniques that are available to companies and one that a number of our portfolio companies have adopted. Another option, and one that I prefer, is for a market to develop around financing these option exercises (and the taxes owed) when employees depart.

However, if you are thinking about extending the option exercise period for departing employees, you should understand that it will cost your company something.

Here is why:

Options are worth more than the spread between the strike price (the exercise price) and what the stock is actually worth. They have additional value related to the potential for the stock price to appreciate more over the

Continue reading “The Hidden Cost Of Extending Option Exercise Periods”

Real Time Economics: Bad Jobs Report? Don’t Sweat It.


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for delivery here.

U.S. employers added a scant 20,000 jobs, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% and hourly wages posted their best annual gain in nearly a decade in February. Jeff Sparshott and Greg Ip here to take you through some of the numbers.

THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SAYS ‘DON’T WORRY’

At first blush the job market behaved strangely in February. Nonfarm payrolls barely grew, by 20,000, far less than expected. Yet unemployment dropped to 3.8% from 4%. Payrolls are based on a survey of employers while unemployment is drawn from a survey of households. In recent months the two had moved in opposite directions, producing strong payroll growth but rising unemployment. February’s moves correct some of that divergence. Both have likely been distorted by the partial federal government shutdown and cold weather. Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Bad Jobs Report? Don’t Sweat It.”

U.S. Hiring Slows Sharply in February


This post is by Josh Zumbrun and Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




U.S. employers added a scant 20,000 jobs, the unemployment rate fell to 3.8% and hourly wages posted their best annual gain in nearly a decade in February.

As of January, job growth had been rising at the fastest pace since 2016, but February’s weak report pulled that down.

While the pace of job growth was weak in February, the various measures of the unemployment rate all ticked down. The broadest measure—which includes part-time workers who want full-time work—declined to 7.3% from 8.1% in January. That was its lowest mark since 2001. The Labor Department said that January’s reading may have been influenced by the government shutdown.

Hourly and weekly wages continued to rise somewhat more than 3% per year. With inflation slowing, real wage gains are now increasing once again.

Unemployment rates came down last month for workers with different levels of education. Although the gap has Continue reading “U.S. Hiring Slows Sharply in February”

Real Time Economics: The Global Economy Is Slowing


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

It’s jobs day! Look for a special issue of our newsletter after the U.S. employment report is released. But first, Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the day’s key economic news. Send us your questions, comments or suggestions by replying to this email.

U.S.-CHINA TRADE DEAL? NOT YET.

The U.S. and China have yet to set a date for a summit to resolve their trade dispute. Neither side feels an agreement is imminent. “Both sides agree that there has to be significant progress, meaning a feeling that they’re very close before that happens,” Terry Branstad, the U.S. envoy to Beijing, said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “We’re not there yet. But we’re closer than we’ve been for a very long time. Continue reading “Real Time Economics: The Global Economy Is Slowing”

Real Time Economics: The Biggest Trade Deficit, the Best Jobs Market


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments or suggestions by replying to this email.

HUGE

The U.S. trade deficit in goods hit a record in 2018, defying President Trump’s efforts to narrow the gap. The causes: More imports were pulled in by strong demand at home and some exports got hammered by retaliation against U.S. trade policies, Paul Kiernan and Josh Zumbrun report.

CROP BUSTERS

The goods deficit widened most last year with China, the U.S.’s largest commercial partner and the main focus of White House trade efforts. Beijing slammed the brakes on purchases of key U.S. exports, especially agricultural products such as soybeans, wheat and sorghum. China’s purchases of those three Continue reading “Real Time Economics: The Biggest Trade Deficit, the Best Jobs Market”

Real Time Economics: More Americans Are Buying a Home Again


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

The U.S. economy is looking pretty good. Overseas, not so much, with manufacturers around the world pulling back. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments or suggestions by replying to this email.

I’M SENSING A PATTERN

By one measure, the U.S. just enjoyed the best full year of economic growth since 2005. But the trend isn’t great. Gross domestic product advanced at a 2.6% pace in the fourth quarter. That’s fine. But it was down from 4.2% in the second and 3.4% in the third quarter. Macroeconomic Advisers is forecasting 1.1% this quarter. There’s no sign the economy is sinking toward recession and in fact it looks to be on solid ground. Continue reading “Real Time Economics: More Americans Are Buying a Home Again”

Real Time Economics: Do Deficits Matter?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell is back on Capitol Hill, the U.S. housing market stumbled into the new year, and wage growth could be better than we think. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments or suggestions by replying to this email.

OLD SCHOOL MONETARY THEORY

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell returns to Capitol Hill for a second day of testimony about the U.S. economy, interest-rate policy and financial regulation. On Tuesday, he told senators the Fed is “in no rush to make a judgment” about how to change interest-rates.

This could get interesting: Wednesday marks the first time Mr. Powell testifies on the House side since Democrats regained the majority. Democrats haven’t spoken out against Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Do Deficits Matter?”

Real Time Economics: Trump Extends Trade Truce with China


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

President Trump says the U.S. and China are getting closer to a trade deal. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. We’ll also look at the labor market, the Fed’s inflation target, the high price of healthy fat, and Gene Simmons’s thoughts on capitalism. Send us your questions, comments or suggestions by replying to this email.

TRADING UP

President Trump will delay an increase in tariffs on Chinese goods set to take effect at the end of this week, citing “substantial progress” on issues including intellectual property and technology transfer. Should progress continue, the U.S. would plan a summit with President Xi Jinping of China to conclude an agreement, Bob Davis and Lingling Wei report.

In recent talks, Beijing offered Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Trump Extends Trade Truce with China”

Real Time Economics: Will Trump’s Tariffs Knock Down Trade Barriers?


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

U.S.-China trade talks resume in Washington, Democratic presidential hopefuls have big ideas on economic policy, and Brexit is generating yet more uncertainty in the U.K. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through key developments in the global economy. Send us your questions, comments or suggestions by replying to this email.

BATTERING RAM

As trade negotiations with China resume this week, the Trump administration is racing to strike a deal that will result in long-term reforms—and prove that tariffs are an effective battering ram to open markets. The president is pursuing an ambitious agenda to advance new deals this year covering about 40% of the global economy, Jacob M. Schlesinger reports.

China is the priority, as the administration has given Beijing a March 1 deadline to commit Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Will Trump’s Tariffs Knock Down Trade Barriers?”

Real Time Economics: The Midwest Looks to Puerto Rico for Workers


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

A tight labor market is pulling workers to the Midwest from Puerto Rico, tax cuts aren’t paying for themselves, and Europe’s economy is a mess. Happy Valentine’s Day! Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the day’s top economic news. Send us your questions, comments or suggestions by replying to this email.

FACTORS OF PRODUCTION

Tens of thousands of Puerto Ricans have fled the U.S. territory’s struggling economy in recent years. While they mostly concentrate in traditional landing spots like New York and Florida, a number are venturing to the Midwest, where jobs in many places are more plentiful than people. A number were drawn by employers that stepped up recruiting after finding it hard to secure workers locally or via the H-2B visa program that allows immigrants to Continue reading “Real Time Economics: The Midwest Looks to Puerto Rico for Workers”

Real Time Economics: Tariff Deadlines, Shutdown Suspense and Record Job Openings


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

President Trump sounds flexible on two big economic wildcards: a deadline to raise tariffs on China and a plan to avoid another government shutdown. Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the day’s economic news, including lingering fallout from the last shutdown, record job openings and record household debt, and columnist Greg Ip’s take on the Green New Deal. Send us your questions, comments or suggestions by replying to this email.

FLEXIBLE DEADLINE

President Trump said he is willing to delay next month’s deadline for resolving the U.S.’s trade conflict with China if negotiations with Beijing are progressing smoothly: “If we’re close to a deal…I could see myself letting that slide for a little while.” While markets would welcome a cessation of trade hostilities, a partial Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Tariff Deadlines, Shutdown Suspense and Record Job Openings”

Real Time Economics: Trump and Xi Won’t Meet? No Big Deal.


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

It’s looking less and less like the U.S. and China will strike a comprehensive trade deal ahead of a March 1 deadline. Do you think that means a new round of tariffs, or a new deadline and more talks? Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the day’s top economic news. Send us your questions, comments or suggestions by replying to this email.

DEAL OR NO DEAL

President Trump is “highly unlikely” to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping ahead of a March 1 deadline. Officials say they remain optimistic they will reach a trade accord, but more work remains before the two presidents can complete a deal, Alex Leary reports. The U.S. in December suspended plans to raise tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods to Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Trump and Xi Won’t Meet? No Big Deal.”

Fastest-Growing Jobs in Each U.S. State


This post is by Barry Ritholtz from The Big Picture


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




Here comes the future — not with robots, but with Solar Panel Installers. That is the fastest-growing job in 8 states (California, Florida, Hawaii, New Mexico, North Carolina, Missouri, and surprisingly, Minnesota and New Jersey). The gig pays ~$19 per hour or $39,5k per year, and is projected to grow 105% til 2026– much faster than the…

Read More

The post Fastest-Growing Jobs in Each U.S. State appeared first on The Big Picture.

How the Job Market Looked at the Start of the Year, Shutdown and All


This post is by Josh Zumbrun and Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




U.S. employers added 304,000 jobs in January and the unemployment rate edged up to 4%. The partial government shutdown entered into unemployment figures but didn’t appear to affect overall job creation.

Over the past year, the number of jobs has grown by 1.9%, an acceleration from a year ago. The economy is now adding jobs at the best clip since 2016.

The unemployment rate climbed to 4% in January, which is the highest since June. Broader measures of unemployment, which include discouraged workers or part-time workers seeking full-time employment, also rose. These figures were elevated due to the government shutdown.

The unemployment rate climbed for workers of all race and gender groups last month, with an especially large jump for black men, who saw their unemployment rate climb from 5.8% in November to 7.1% in this report. (Once again, these figures were elevated due to the Continue reading “How the Job Market Looked at the Start of the Year, Shutdown and All”

Real Time Economics: Trump Upbeat On a Trade Deal, Jobs Report On Tap


This post is by Jeffrey Sparshott from Real Time Economics


Click here to view on the original site: Original Post




This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here.

It’s jobs day! U.S. employers are expected to increase payrolls for a record 100th consecutive month. We’ll publish a special edition of this newsletter after the latest numbers are released.

Good morning. Jeff Sparshott here to take you through the day’s economic news, including the latest on U.S.-China trade talks, what to look for in the employment report, a stock market celebration and another sign of weakness in China. Send us your questions, comments or suggestions by replying to this email. 

DEAL ME IN

The U.S. and China moved closer to settling their trade dispute. The next step: President Trump expects to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping later this month to resolve the conflict that has rattled the global economy.  “I think we can do Continue reading “Real Time Economics: Trump Upbeat On a Trade Deal, Jobs Report On Tap”