No Correlation Between Minimum Wage Increases and Employment Levels

From National Economic Law Project: This pattern of increased job growth following minimum-wage increases holds true both for general labor-market indicators as well as those for industries heavily affected by minimum- wage increases: In the 22 instances when the federal minimum wage went up, the change in total private employment after one year was positive… Read More The post No Correlation Between Minimum Wage Increases and Employment Levels appeared first on The Big Picture.

On China Trade Shock, Economists’ Debate Shifts to Housing Boom

When we last checked in on the controversy over how badly Chinese imports harmed U.S. workers, a Gallup economist claimed he found “serious flaws” in the work by economists David Autor, David Dorn and Gordon Hanson—researchers who have become so famous in the field they are known simply as ADH. ADH batted away that critique, which had to do with dueling statistical analyses, by pointing out that the paper by Gallup’s Jonathan Rothwell had been turned down by an influential economics journal. Now comes another, better-credentialed challenge to ADH’s findings, in a series of papers, that Chinese import competition was so severe and unanticipated that it accounted for about one-fourth of the decline in U.S. manufacturing employment between 1990 and 2007, an estimate they later expanded to about 2.4 million jobs overall between 1999 and 2011. The impact was so powerful that wages also Continue reading "On China Trade Shock, Economists’ Debate Shifts to Housing Boom"

Do youths graduating in a recession incur permanent losses?

Do youths graduating in a recession incur permanent losses? Penalties may last ten years or more Bart Cockx Ghent University, Belgium, and IZA, Germany Elevator pitch The Great Recession that began in 2008–2009 dramatically increased youth unemployment. But did it have long-lasting, adverse effects on the careers of youths? Are cohorts that graduate during a… Read More The post Do youths graduating in a recession incur permanent losses? appeared first on The Big Picture.

Hiring and Quitting Rates Show No Signs of Renewed Labor Market Vigor

The rate at which employees left positions or employers filled new ones was little changed in February, according to the Labor Department’s monthly Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, the latest piece of data to underscore how difficult it is to enliven an economy as large as that of the U.S. The hiring rate fell slightly to 3.6% in February from 3.7% in January. The layoffs rate was unchanged at 1.1%, and the rate of voluntary job separation fell to 2.1%. All three rates have changed little over the past  six months. The report, known as Jolts, tracks the monthly churning of the U.S. economy, with millions of workers leaving one job, or starting a new one, and millions of new openings being posted. The net increase in the number of jobs is reported separately, in the Labor Department’s primary monthly employment report. Continue reading "Hiring and Quitting Rates Show No Signs of Renewed Labor Market Vigor"

Economists React to the March Jobs Report: ‘Mostly Just Weather-Related Noise’

U.S. nonfarm employers added a seasonally adjusted 98,000 jobs in March, well below economists’ expectations for an increase of 175,000. But the unemployment rate dropped to 4.5%, its lowest level since May 2007. Here are early reactions from economists and analysts to Friday’s report: “The disappointing 98,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls in March will be seized upon by the usual suspects as confirmation that the U.S. economy is poised for collapse, but the truth is this is mostly just weather-related noise. After the unseasonably warm January and February, which pushed monthly job gains back above 200,000, there was always going to be some payback in March, when the weather snapped back to seasonal norms, including some heavy snowstorms.” —Paul Ashworth, Capital Economics “Headline unemployment fell, but perhaps more importantly so did underemployment—from 9.2% in February to 8.9% in March. … This means fewer Continue reading "Economists React to the March Jobs Report: ‘Mostly Just Weather-Related Noise’"

The March Jobs Report in 12 Charts

Employers added 98,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate dropped to the lowest level in almost a decade, highlighting steady but sometimes mixed progress across the labor market. Here are the details. Year over year, average hourly earnings for private-sector workers have been running higher. They were up 2.7% from a year earlier in March. Payroll growth is up around 1.5% over the last year, the slowest rate of increase in nearly four years. The share of Americans either working or looking for work was unchanged at 63% last month, while the share of employed Americans climbed to 60.1%. Among workers ages 25 to 54, who are less likely to be in school or retired, the employment-to-population ratio climbed to the highest in over eight years. Broader measures of unemployment continued to move downward. Those measures include people who have stopped looking for work because they’re discouraged, people marginally attached Continue reading "The March Jobs Report in 12 Charts"