5 Things to Watch in the September Jobs Report

The Labor Department releases its broadest look at the U.S. job market for September on Friday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect employers added 180,000 jobs during the month and see the unemployment rate ticking down to 3.8%. Here are five things to watch in the report. 1. Weather Effect? Don’t expect Hurricane Florence, which struck the Carolinas in the middle of the month, to have a major impact on the unemployment rate or payroll growth. The projected payroll increase is just a shade below the 194,000 jobs added on average each month in the past year. The timing of the storm, falling late in the week that households were asked about employment status, means many of those affected wouldn’t be counted as unemployed. And the storm hit a relatively less populated area of the country in comparison with storms that struck Houston and New Continue reading "5 Things to Watch in the September Jobs Report"

Real Time Economics: How Long Can the U.S. Economic Expansion Last? ‘Effectively Indefinitely.’

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning. Today we look at extraordinary U.S. economic growth, rising bond yields, collateral damage in emerging markets, why U.S. worker wages might take a step back in September, and the continuing demise of the shopping mall. HOW ABOUT THAT ECONOMY! The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to its highest level in more than seven years as investors bet on strong economic growth and rising inflation. The immediate cause: robust economic data and easing trade tensions after the U.S., Mexico and Canada hashed out a new pact. The 10-year Treasury is a closely watched barometer of sentiment toward growth and inflation. Investors appear to expect more of both. It’s also used as a reference for everything from auto loans to mortgages. Higher yields likely mean higher Continue reading "Real Time Economics: How Long Can the U.S. Economic Expansion Last? ‘Effectively Indefinitely.’"

links (10/3/18)

   

links (10/3/18)

How important was the financial panic as a cause of the Great Recession? - Brad DeLong When Information Flows Became Fast: The Trans-Atlantic Telegraph - Tim Taylor Energy Intensity, Growth, and Technical Change - Stochastic Trend Resolving 'Too Big to...

Where Hurricane Florence May Show Up in the September Jobs Report

Hurricane Florence appears unlikely to knock the labor market off course. While the storm caused flooding in the Carolinas last month, the hurricane’s effects may not be obvious in the most closely watched figures in the September jobs report—the unemployment rate and payroll change—to be released Friday by the Labor Department. That’s due to a combination of the storm’s timing and its effects being felt by a relatively small slice of the U.S. economy. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the unemployment rate to tick down to 3.8% in September and project U.S. employers added 180,000 jobs to payrolls. Hurricane Florence made landfall on the morning of Friday, Sept. 14, in North Carolina. It caused significant damage in cities  such as Wilmington and New Bern, N.C., but the impact was much more modest in the region’s population centers, including Charlotte, N.C., Continue reading "Where Hurricane Florence May Show Up in the September Jobs Report"

Where Hurricane Florence May Show Up in the September Jobs Report

Hurricane Florence appears unlikely to knock the labor market off course. While the storm caused flooding in the Carolinas last month, the hurricane’s effects may not be obvious in the most closely watched figures in the September jobs report—the unemployment rate and payroll change—to be released Friday by the Labor Department. That’s due to a combination of the storm’s timing and its effects being felt by a relatively small slice of the U.S. economy. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the unemployment rate to tick down to 3.8% in September and project U.S. employers added 180,000 jobs to payrolls. Hurricane Florence made landfall on the morning of Friday, Sept. 14, in North Carolina. It caused significant damage in cities  such as Wilmington and New Bern, N.C., but the impact was much more modest in the region’s population centers, including Charlotte, N.C., Continue reading "Where Hurricane Florence May Show Up in the September Jobs Report"

Where Hurricane Florence May Show Up in the September Jobs Report

Hurricane Florence appears unlikely to knock the labor market off course. While the storm caused flooding in the Carolinas last month, the hurricane’s effects may not be obvious in the most closely watched figures in the September jobs report—the unemployment rate and payroll change—to be released Friday by the Labor Department. That’s due to a combination of the storm’s timing and its effects being felt by a relatively small slice of the U.S. economy. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the unemployment rate to tick down to 3.8% in September and project U.S. employers added 180,000 jobs to payrolls. Hurricane Florence made landfall on the morning of Friday, Sept. 14, in North Carolina. It caused significant damage in cities  such as Wilmington and New Bern, N.C., but the impact was much more modest in the region’s population centers, including Charlotte, N.C., Continue reading "Where Hurricane Florence May Show Up in the September Jobs Report"

Where Hurricane Florence May Show Up in the September Jobs Report

Hurricane Florence appears unlikely to knock the labor market off course. While the storm caused flooding in the Carolinas last month, the hurricane’s effects may not be obvious in the most closely watched figures in the September jobs report—the unemployment rate and payroll change—to be released Friday by the Labor Department. That’s due to a combination of the storm’s timing and its effects being felt by a relatively small slice of the U.S. economy. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the unemployment rate to tick down to 3.8% in September and project U.S. employers added 180,000 jobs to payrolls. Hurricane Florence made landfall on the morning of Friday, Sept. 14, in North Carolina. It caused significant damage in cities  such as Wilmington and New Bern, N.C., but the impact was much more modest in the region’s population centers, including Charlotte, N.C., Continue reading "Where Hurricane Florence May Show Up in the September Jobs Report"

Real Time Economics: Amazon Lifts Minimum Wage | ‘Extraordinary Times’ for the Fed | U.S.-China Talks Back On?

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning. Today we look at falling supply and rising demand for workers, the Fed’s extraordinary take on the economy, trade talks with China, Hurricane Florence’s limited impact on the labor market, and the market’s response to climate change. DEAL OF THE DAY Amazon.comid it will pay its employees at least $15 an hour starting next month. That’s fresh evidence the strong job market is forcing businesses to compete for lower-skilled workers and spreading the benefits of a long-running economic expansion, Eric Morath and Lauren Weber report. Will more companies be forced to follow? The supply of workers with advanced skills is always relatively limited, so their wages aren’t entirely tied to broader economic trends. But low-wage workers feel the peaks and valleys. When unemployment is high, they have to Continue reading "Real Time Economics: Amazon Lifts Minimum Wage | ‘Extraordinary Times’ for the Fed | U.S.-China Talks Back On?"

links (10/2/18)

   

links (10/2/18)

Is There Any Reason to Fear Low Interest Rates? - Brad DeLong The Fed's No Longer Guided by Concept of Neutral Rates - Tim Duy The Angry White Male Caucus - Paul Krugman I Created "The Bernank" on YouTube. And...

Real Time Economics: After a North America Deal, White House Refocuses on Trade With China

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning. Today we look at the next challenge for White House trade policy, warnings on the global economy, complications for North American automakers, berry-picking robots, worker wages, and the IMF’s new chief economist. NAFTA DOWN, CHINA TO GO White House officials are betting that the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement will give them more ammunition in their high-stakes battle with China. The pact removes the possibility of a North American trade war and will make the continent a more attractive place for investment. The administration figures that when combined with U.S. tariffs, foreign companies will start moving investment out of China. That would weaken China’s ability to produce next-generation technology and put additional pressure on Beijing to make trade concessions, Bob Davis writes. In addition to the new Nafta, the Continue reading "Real Time Economics: After a North America Deal, White House Refocuses on Trade With China"

Real Time Economics: Goodbye Nafta, Hello USMCA | China’s Economy Sputters | Is Oil Heading to $100?

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning. Today we look at President Trump’s newest trade deal, signs of trouble at China’s factories, job creation in Europe, better days for part-time workers, rising oil prices, and how a strong labor market is hitting Harvard.  U.S., CANADA CROSS THE FINISH LINE The U.S. and Canada reached a last-minute deal to revise the North American Free Trade Agreement, lifting a cloud of uncertainty over the quarter-century-old commercial bloc. The pending agreement will allow Canada to join an accord reached in late August between the U.S. and Mexico, and diminishes the prospects for President Trump to kill Nafta outright, Jacob M. Schlesinger, Kim Mackrael and Vivian Salama report. The U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or USMCA, makes significant changes to the continent’s commercial rulebook. The Continue reading "Real Time Economics: Goodbye Nafta, Hello USMCA | China’s Economy Sputters | Is Oil Heading to $100?"

Links (9/30/18)

My computer died. I may have lost a few links (and doing this on an iPad is less than convenient) ’Normal' Monetary Policy in Words and Deeds - John Williams RCT's vs. RDD's - No Hesitations The Economic Future Isn’t...

Links (9/30/18)

My computer died. I may have lost a few links (and doing this on an iPad is less than convenient)

Real Time Economics: Has the U.S. Economy Already Peaked?

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning. Today we look at U.S. economic growth, few signs of inflation, half-a-Nafta, a laconic Fed, Italy’s  free-spending government, and Japan’s strongest stock market in nearly three decades.  PEAK ECONOMY? The U.S. economy is growing at one of the fastest paces of the nine-year expansion. Is it all downhill from here? Gross domestic product came in at a high-flying 4.2% annual rate in the second quarter. The third quarter is looking good, but not nearly as good after data showing a widening trade deficit and softening business investment this summer. Economists knocked down their third-quarter GDP estimates: JPMorgan to 3% from 3.5%, Barclays to 2.8% from 3.2%, Morgan Stanley to 2.7% from 3.4% and the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tracker fell to Continue reading "Real Time Economics: Has the U.S. Economy Already Peaked?"

Real Time Economics: U.S.-China Grievances Grow, Japan’s In and Canada’s Out

This is the web version of the WSJ’s newsletter on the economy. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning. Today we look at how China is prying technology from American companies, White House pressure on Canada, trade progress with Japan, trouble in the Farm Belt, and the Fed’s steady path to higher interest rates. TECH TACTICS President Trump says China steals American know-how, and forced technology transfer is now a central part of the spiraling U.S.-China trade fight. Here’s what the WSJ’s Lingling Wei and Bob Davis found: Beijing leans on an array of levers to pry technology from American companies—sometimes coercively so. China’s tactics include pressuring U.S. partners in joint ventures to relinquish technology, using local courts to invalidate American firms’ patents and licensing arrangements, dispatching antitrust and other investigators, and filling regulatory panels with experts who may pass trade secrets to Chinese Continue reading "Real Time Economics: U.S.-China Grievances Grow, Japan’s In and Canada’s Out"

Links (9/26/18)

Links (9/26/18)

Parsing the Fed: How the September Statement Changed From August

The Federal Reserve releases a statement at the conclusion of each of its policy-setting meetings, outlining the central bank’s economic outlook and the actions it plans to take. Much of the statement remains the same from meeting to meeting. Fed watchers closely parse changes between statements to see how the Fed’s views are evolving. This tool compares the latest statement with its immediate predecessor and highlights where policy makers have updated their language. This is the September statement compared with August. [wsj-responsive-sandbox id = "0" ] RELATED As Fed Raises Rates, Consumers Have Yet to Feel the Sting