- Notes on a Butter Republic - Paul Krugman
- An Interview with Avinash Dixit - The Politic
- Trump v. Fed - Cecchetti & Schoenholtz
- The robot paradox - Stumbling and Mumbling
- The ethnic segregation of immigrants in the US from 1850 to 1940 - VoxEU
- The Emergence and Erosion of the Retail Sales Tax - Tim Taylor
- Are Trump’s Policies Hurting Long-Term US Growth? - Kenneth Rogoff
- How Do the Fed's MBS Purchases Affect Credit Allocation? - Liberty Street
- They Want What We’ve Got - Economic Principals
- Stop Calling Trump a Populist - Paul Krugman
- Productivity Measurement Initiative - Brookings
- Why Every Good Economist Should Be Feminist - ProMarket
- Work Requirements Hurt Poor Families—and Won’t Work - Jason Furman
- The Hidden Danger for Trump in the Economy’s Growth Spurt - John Cassidy
- How China beat the Global Financial Crisis - mainly macro
Economy Adds 157,000 Jobs in July, Little Evidence of Pick-up in Wage Growth: Unemployment rates for workers without a high school degree hit a record low as less-educated workers continue to be biggest job gainers in recovery.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported the economy added 157,000 jobs in July. With upward revisions to the data from the prior two months, the average gain over the last three months was 224,000. The unemployment rate edged down to 3.9 percent as most of the rise in unemployment in June, which was due to increased labor force participation, was reversed. The employment-to-population (EPOP) ratio rose to 60.5 percent, a new high for the recovery.
In spite of the healthy pace of job growth and the low unemployment rate, there continues to be little evidence of accelerating wage growth. Over the last year, the average hourly wageContinue reading "Economy Adds 157,000 Jobs in July, Little Evidence of Pick-up in Wage Growth"
Macroeconomic Research, Present and Past, by P.J. Glandon, Ken Kuttner, Sandeep Mazumder, and Caleb Stroup, August 1, 2018: Abstract We document eight facts about published macroeconomics research by hand collecting information about the epistemological approaches, methods, and data appearing in over a thousand published papers. Macroeconomics journals have published an increasing share of theory papers over the past 38 years, with theory-based papers now comprising the majority of published macroeconomics research. The increase in quantitative models (e.g., DSGE methods) masks a decline in publication of pure theory research. Financial intermediation played an important role in about a third of macroeconomic theory papers in the 1980s and 1990s, but became less frequent until the financial crisis, at which point it once again became an important area of focus. Only a quarter of macroeconomics publications conduct falsificationContinue reading "Macroeconomic Research, Present and Past"
Summer 2018 Journal of Economic Perspectives Available On-line: I was hired back in 1986 to be the Managing Editor for a new academic economics journal, at the time unnamed, but which soon launched as the Journal of Economic Perspectives. The JEP is published by the American Economic Association, which back in 2011 decided--to my delight--that it would be freely available on-line, from the current issue back to the first issue. Here, I'll start with Table of Contents for the just-released Summer 2018 issue, which in the Taylor household is known as issue #125. Below that are abstracts and direct links for all of the papers. I may blog more specifically about some of the papers in the next week or two, as well.
Symposium: Macroeconomics a Decade after the Great Recession
"What Happened: Financial Factors in the Great Recession," by Mark Gertler and Simon GilchristContinue reading "Summer 2018 Journal of Economic Perspectives"
Rulers of the world: read Karl Marx!: ...The chief reason for the continuing interest in Marx, however, is that his ideas are more relevant than they have been for decades. The post-war consensus that shifted power from capital to labour and produced a “great compression” in living standards is fading. Globalisation and the rise of a virtual economy are producing a version of capitalism that once more seems to be out of control. The backwards flow of power from labour to capital is finally beginning to produce a popular—and often populist—reaction. No wonder the most successful economics book of recent years, Thomas Piketty’s “Capital in the Twenty-First Century”, echoes the title of Marx’s most important work and his preoccupation with inequality. ...
The 2018 Fields Medal and its Surprising Connection to Economics!: The Fields Medal and Nevanlinna Prizes were given out today. They represent the highest honor possible for young mathematicians and theoretical computer scientists, and are granted only once every four years. The mathematics involved is often very challenging for outsiders. Indeed, the most prominent of this year’s winners, the German Peter Scholze, is best known for his work on “perfectoid spaces”, and I honestly have no idea how to begin explaining them aside from saying that they are useful in a number of problems in algebraic geometry (the lovely field mapping results in algebra – what numbers solve y=2x – and geometry – noting that those solutions to y=2x form a line). Two of this year’s prizes, however, the Fields given to Alessio Figalli and the Nevanlinna to Constantinos Daskalakis, have aContinue reading "The 2018 Fields Medal and its Surprising Connection to Economics!"
- Transaction Costs and Tethers: Why I’m a Crypto Skeptic - Paul Krugman
- How to Even Out the Pains and Gains from International Trade - ProMarket
- Price Level Targeting with Evolving Credibility - Brad DeLong
- The Marxist Bank of England - Stumbling and Mumbling
- Monetary Policy as a Jobs Guarantee - The Everyday Economist
Race, and the race between stocks and homes, by Douglas ClementMost research on long-term U.S. inequality focuses on income; relatively little examines wealth, largely due to lack of good asset data. But a June 2018 working paper from the Opportunity & Inclusive Growth Institute addresses that imbalance with a new data set developed from historical surveys, and it shows that wealth—specifically, ownership of stocks and homes—has been a central force behind U.S. inequality trends for 70 years. ...Their analysis begins by confirming the findings of other scholars: increased income polarization since the 1970s, with particular damage to the relative position of the middle-class. It also sheds new light on economic inequality between blacks and whites by quantifying vast differences in wealth asContinue reading "Race, and the Race Between Stocks and Homes"
How BBC balance and bad think tanks discourage evidence based policy:
The Knowledge Transmission Mechanism (KTM) is how knowledge produced by academics and other researchers is translated into public policy. Evidence based policy is the result of this mechanism working. The media is, in theory, an important conduit for the KTM...
The rigid application of political balance in the broadcast media is in danger of negating the KTM, and therefore evidence based policy. The moment an issue (call it issue X) is deemed ‘political’ by the media, balance dictates that any view expressed on issue X is an opinion rather than knowledge. As a result, when the media want to talk to non-politicians (‘experts’) about issue X, the imperative of balance remains.
Now suppose that in the knowledge world there is in fact a consensus on issue X. That would be a problem for balance broadcasting, becauseContinue reading "How BBC Balance and Bad Think Tanks Discourage Evidence Based Policy"
High-Speed Rail Expansion and German Worker Mobility: Starting in the late 1990s, Germany expanded its high-speed rail network (HSR), connecting outlying locales to large urban areas. In The Effect of Infrastructure on Worker Mobility: Evidence from High-Speed Rail Expansion in Germany (NBER Working Paper No. 24507), Daniel F. Heuermann and Johannes F. Schmieder study how this large-scale infrastructure investment affected commuter behavior. They find that the expansion reduced travel times and increased commuting, as workers moved to jobs in smaller cities while keeping their places of residence in larger urban areas.
Until the late 1990s, the HSR system connected the largest cities of Germany. The connected cities were located in just three of the 16 German states. Areas between the large cities, through which the tracks ran, campaigned for stations, and in a second wave of expansion, the government added stops in manyContinue reading "High-Speed Rail Expansion and German Worker Mobility"