2012 – the year of the double dip
Festive cheer seems to be in short supply at Capital Economics:– We don’t have high hopes for 2012. In fact, we continue to think that the UK will re-enter recession....
Increasing Macroeconomic Fright
Title of the IMF’s World Economic Outlook, September 2010:Recovery, Risk & RebalancingThe title of the September 2011 edition (just out at pixel time)…Slowing Growth,...
The pre-conditions for a double-dip
Fed tightening, apparently.(Not that there are a lot of examples to go on.)This is from Spyros Andreopoulos at Morgan Stanley. He sifts through all the slowdowns —...
“Dangerously close to recession” — earnings edition
Or, earnings recession risk, and still not getting it in equities.Interesting spot from Morgan Stanley’s European equities analysts, following the bank’s major downgrade...
From 1896 to 2011, in UK borrowing costs [updated]
The 10-year gilt yield fell under 2.4 per cent early on Thursday:It was 2.37 per cent at pixel time.So we’re not just well under the twentieth-century record low (1946,...
Kaputt
And now you know the German for “stall speed”. Headline changed to better reflect the effects of a slowdown in a major export economy on global growth… (see...
Depression or double-dip? One of them’s in the eurozone, UBS says
A handy table from Paul Donovan.The UBS economist notes that recent global growth data has somewhat disappointed investors — prompting concern about a possible double-dip or even depression....
On the brink of a British double-dip
Dramatic, we know. But the ONS has confirmed the economy grew only 0.5 per cent in 2011′s first quarter after its 0.5 per cent fall in 2010′s last three months, and technically…...
US banking stress tests 2.0 – an update
Aka — could your desire to release dividends survive a double-dip?FT Alphaville reported back in November that the US Federal Reserve was looking at whether bank holding...
November Home Prices Down 5%, More Downside Expected
Filed under: Analyst Reports, Economic Data, HousingThis not good news. Market researcher Zillow, which tracks home prices, reported that prices dropped 5.1% in November 2010, the 53rd straight month of declines. Zillow does not include foreclosures in...
QE2-as-bank-bailout
QE2-as-bank-bailout continues with a Friday op-ed by Andy Kessler, a former hedge-fund manager and author of “Eat People—And Other Unapologetic Rules for Game-Changing Entrepreneurs”....
Mortgage lending… falters
More UK double-dip food for thought, this time courtesy of the Bank of England.The Bank’s lending data for September show net mortgage lending stalling (click to enlarge the chart):...
