Are Stocks Ahead of the Economy?
> Today, I want to bring a simple analysis to your attention. It is based upon the chart of GDP versus the total stock market valuation: Another measure bodes worse, however. That’s a comparison of the total value of U.S. shares with the yearly output of the U.S. economy (see chart). The stock market is...
Sell in May?
Great set of charts from The Chart Store showing the performance for the month of May going back to 1928: > Click to enlarge: ˜˜˜ ˜˜˜ More charts after the jump ˜˜˜ ˜˜˜ ˜˜˜
The Future of America
One of the things I have taught myself to do over the years was to think in different time frames. This includes very long geological epochs and astronomical eons. Maybe it was an interest in dinosaurs and astronomy as a kid, but historical time frames was a concept I was familiar with. Perhaps that was the...
CoreLogic’s Shadow Inventory
~~~ > Since we are looking closely at RE issues this week, I wanted to take a look at CoreLogic’s most recent report on residential shadow inventory (January 2012). Note that CoreLogic has a much more restrictive definition of Shadow Inventory than some other folks (including myself) do. They create an estimate of “Pending Supply”...
Historical Cycles: S&P, Gold, Silver (1928 – Present)
I have mentioned Ron Griess and The Chart Store countless times, but I have to give them mad props again. The depth of their chart collection, combined with the weekly updates/blog are invariably interesting, informative and insightful. These four charts below are just the sort of Big Picture, long cycle perspective that so many investors...
The Goldman Sachs Equity Call
A big fuss was made over the Goldman Sachs call yesterday advising clients that equities will be the better hold than bonds for the next few years. Here are three links recapping the call here, here and here.Before getting too excited I would remind th...
Is this a buying cycle?
With all our cycle work over the last week, I took a look to find buying cycle lows. Lets describe how we started these lines. Well, the 2 best buy points on the chart are at the 2003 and 2009 lows. They look like places I would like to buy! I noted the locations with...
Are Recoveries from Banking and Financial Crises Really So Different?
Are Recoveries from Banking and Financial Crises Really So Different? Greg Howard, Robert Martin, and Beth Anne Wilson International Finance Discussion Papers 2011-1037 (November 2011) ~~~ Abstract: This paper studies the behavior of recoveries from recessions across 59 advanced and emerging market economies over the past 40 years. Focusing specifically on the performance of output...
Are Recoveries from Banking and Financial Crises Really So Different?
Are Recoveries from Banking and Financial Crises Really So Different? Greg Howard, Robert Martin, and Beth Anne Wilson International Finance Discussion Papers 2011-1037 (November 2011) ~~~ Abstract: This paper studies the behavior of recoveries from recessions across 59 advanced and emerging market economies over the past 40 years. Focusing specifically on the performance of output...
Why ECRI’s Recession Call Stands
Why ECRI’s Recession Call Stands Lakshman Achuthan & Anirvan Banerji March 15, 2012 > Many have questioned why, in the face of improving economic data, ECRI has maintained its recession call. The straight answer is that the objective economic indicators we monitor, including those we make public, give us no other choice. Let’s start with...
Sunday Morning Coffee
A couple of items from Barron's to chew on.First is an article titled The Worst of Times to Buy Stocks? which features analysis from a couple of people including John Hussman. People who read Hussman at least occasionally will find his comments familia...
Is A Recession Still Coming?
Source: Bianco Research Business Insider – ECRI CHIEF ACHUTHAN: I’m Sticking With My Recession Call, The Numbers Are Still Awful ECRI chief Lakshman Achuthan is on CNBC. Last year he called for an imminent recession. Since then the economy seems to have improved quite a bit. He’s still not backing down. Here are some key points...
