Historical 15 Year Market Cycle
click for larger graphic > Floyd Norris points out the cyclical nature of stock markets over 15-year periods: “Compound annual total real return of the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index peaked at more than 15 percent in 1999, and has since fallen to just 3 percent. That peak was similar to the earlier peak, reached...
Economic Cycles and Investing
Last week, we ran this series of Sentiment charts. Today, I want to share with you a few interesting economic cycle charts: > ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~ ~~~
Psy Cycle (Updated)
Our favorite collection of sentiment cycle charts — updated . . . > ~~~ ~~~ ~~~
Foreign Markets in 2011? Not So Good
Bespoke Investment Group had a post the other day with the YTD returns of all the stock markets in the world. Of the 78 that they track only ten were positive. Of the ten that were positive, only six were up more than 2%. There are still two weeks left...
Deutsche’s Reid on shorter business cycles
It must be nearly Christmas, for the last Deutsche Bank Early Morning Reid of 2011 was today.Luckily, strategist Jim Reid and his team left us with a note on their thoughts for...
ECRI Sticks With Its Recession Call
Chick to enlarge: Source: Bianco Research LLC Charts Of The Week, December 7, 2011 > The Weekly Leading Index (WLI) growth indicator of the Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) posted -7.8 in its latest reading, data through November 25. The latest public data point is more negative than last week’s downwardly revised -7.4 (previously -7.3)....
20 Year Rolling Returns DJIA
Fascinating chart from Ron Griess of the Chart Store looking at the Dow Jones Industrial Average, via a 20 year rolling return. The key takeaway is that buying equities when 20 year rolling returns are high is ill advised; making purchases when when 20 year rolling returns are flat to negative seems to generate excellent...
The Slog Continues
By now you've read a dozen articles ripping into the Friday's jobs data. The big bone of contention of course was the extent to which the decline in the headline rate dropped to 8.6% due to a large contraction in the labor force.Whether you call it new...
It’s Beginning to Look A Lot Like…1971 [updated]
The Global Macro Monitor posted several pieces earlier in the year about the Presidential Stock Cycle. See here, here, and here. The third year of a first term President is the strongest year in the cycle. The table illustrates that if the S&P500 doesn’t close at 1257.64 (closed Friday at 1244.28) or higher, President...
Case-Shiller Bubbliciousness
“It’s a little known fact,” as Cliff Clavin would tell us, “that the first city to have its housing bubble burst was Boston.” How appropriate, eh? Since no one lives in either Composite10 or Composite20, below is a portion of a spreadsheet I maintain chronicling the popping of the bubble (this is on a NSA...
Do We Face “A Japan-style Era of High Unemployment and Slow Growth”?
Invictus here. Interested parties were treated to a fascinating debate on the evening of November 14, as the Munk Debates assembled four estimable economic minds to debate the following resolution: Be it resolved North America faces a Japan-style era of high unemployment and slow growth Arguing the pro side of the resolution were David Rosenberg...
Ed Easterling’s 12 Rules of Market Cycles
Ed Easterling of Crestmont Research boils down his views on long term markets to 12 rules of secular stock market cycles. In case you are unfamiliar with Ed’s work, several books, including Unexpected Returns: Understanding Secular Stock Market Cycles; he also wrote Probable Outcomes. Here are Ed Easterling’s 12 Rules of Market Cycles: 1. Secular cycles...
