Chow: Usefulness of Adaptive and Rational Expectations in Economics
Gregory Chow of Princeton on rational versus adaptive expectations: Usefulness of Adaptive and Rational Expectations in Economics, by Gregory C. Chow: ...1. Evidence and statistical reason for supporting the adaptive expectations hypothesis ... Adaptive expectations and rational expectations are hypotheses...
NBER Research Summary: The Role of Household Leverage
This NBER Research Summary by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi echoes many of the arguments I've been making about balance sheet recessions. In addition, the authors argue that the trouble in mortgage markets can be traced to a "securitization-driven shift...
The Jackson Hole papers
Londoners are off today and many Wall Streeters are stuck at home because of ongoing New York transit problems, so if you’re bored and in need of reading material, below...
Austerity and Anarchy
Via Kevin O'Rourke at The Irish Economy: Austerity and Anarchy: Budget Cuts and Social Unrest in Europe, 1919-2009, by Jacopo Ponticelli and Hans-Joachim Voth, Discussion Paper No. 8513, August 2011, Centre for Economic Policy Research: Abstract Does fiscal consolidation lead...
"Animal Spirits, Rational Bubbles and Unemployment in an Old-Keynesian Model"
Roger Farmer: Animal Spirits, Rational Bubbles and Unemployment in an Old-Keynesian Model, by Roger Farmer, NBER Working Paper No. 17137, June 2011 [open link?]: Abstract This paper presents a model of the macroeconomy in which any unemployment rate may be...
"What Should Be Done About the Private Money Market?"
Morgan Ricks argues that we are still vulnerable to runs on the shadow banking system, and that the "moneyness" of assets traded in these markets will require the use of regulatory approaches similar to those used to stabilize the traditional...
Are Working Papers Working?
Should we abandon working papers?: Working Papers are NOT Working, by Berk Özler: ...It is common practice in economics to publish working papers. There are formal working paper series such as NBER, BREAD, IZA, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper...
"Using Blackouts to Help Understand the Determinants of Infant Health"
This is based on the work of a new colleague, Alfredo Burlando: What happens when the power goes out? Using blackouts to help understand the determinants of infant health, by Jed Friedman: Low birth weight, usually defined as less than...
"There is Something Very Wrong with This Picture"
I've been meaning to highlight this paper by Levy and Kochan, and still hope to do a bit more with it, but for now here's Dani Rodrik: There is something very wrong with this picture, by Dani Rodrik: This graph...
Farmer on Williamson on Farmer and Kocherlakota
I asked Roger Farmer if he'd like to respond to a recent post from Stephen Williamson: (it will be helpful to read Williamson's post first): Farmer on Williamson on Farmer and Kocherlakota: Thanks to Stephen Williamson for publicizing my work...
Imagining a Rejection
This is from Tiago Mata at History of Economics Playground. I don't think he likes Robert Shiller's paper on "Economists as Worldly Philosophers," nor the intrusion on historian's turf: Bad job, by Tiago: Imagine I write a paper on Behavioral...
Mankiw and Weinzierl: An Exploration of Optimal Stabilization Policy
I haven't had a chance to ready beyond the introduction and conclusion of this paper by Greg Mankiw and Matthew Weinzierl, "An Exploration of Optimal Stabilization Policy," but a couple of quick reactions. First, in the paper, in order for...
