Retail Says We’re Going Higher…..Much Higher

Market Recap for Thursday, May 24, 2018

The U.S. stock market will be closed on Monday in observance of Memorial Day.  Thanks to all of the veterans, current and past, for their service to our country.  :-)

Wall Street traded much lower in the opening 90 minutes, then spent the remainder of the day trying to lessen the bearish blow.  The Dow Jones was down close to 300 points just prior to 11:00am EST.  But a steady march higher enabled the Dow to erase 75% of those earlier losses and finish the day down just 75 points.  The Russell 2000, displaying relative strength once again, finished with a fractional gain. < p class"entry-more-link">Continue reading "Retail Says We're Going Higher.....Much Higher" »

10 Friday AM Reads

My 3 day weekend not on the train reads: • Stocks prices are a proxy for our beliefs about the future (Reformed Broker) • The WSJ Reporter Who Took Down a Unicorn (New York Magazine) • There is only one gun store in all of Mexico. So why is gun violence soaring? (LA Times) • Truth in a Post-Truth Era:… Read More The post 10 Friday AM Reads appeared first on The Big Picture.

Revisiting VIX as Stock Return Predictor [PREMIUM]

Does implied stock market volatility (IV) predict stock market returns? In their March 2018 paper entitled “Implied Volatility Measures As Indicators of Future Market Returns”, Roberto Bandelli and Wenye Wang analyze the relationship between S&P 500 Index IV and future S&P 500 Index returns. They consider volatilities implied either by S&P 500 Index options (VIX)  or by 30-day More

1981 BMW M1

If you are a fan of the BMW M lines (as I am) then this is where it all began: The BMW M1 (internally, the E26). The hand-built supercar was made between 1978 and 1981. It was the first mid-engined BMW to be “mass-produced” (if thats the right word for a hand built car). It was also… Read More The post 1981 BMW M1 appeared first on The Big Picture.

Real Time Economics: What Do Tariffs, Oil Prices, a Tight Labor Market and Rising Borrowing Costs Mean for the Economy?

This is the web version of the WSJ’s economic newsletter. You can sign up for daily delivery here. Good morning! Today we look at pushback on proposed auto tariffs, rising prices on U.S. steel, climbing borrowing costs, a shortage of summer workers, Europe’s soft patch, and who’s paying for $80 a barrel oil. PUSHBACK ON AUTO TARIFFS Lawmakers, the auto industry and foreign trade partners are among those lambasting the White House’s latest directive on tariffs. President Donald Trump ordered a review of imported vehicles and auto parts under a 1962 law allowing tariffs based on national security concerns, William Mauldin and Siobhan Hughes report. It’s the same justification used on steel and aluminum, though it’s garnering stronger reactions from political allies and trade partners. Republican lawmakers are growing worried that employing tariffs based on national security grounds could alienate military allies, kick off trade wars, disrupt supply chains and boost consumer Continue reading "Real Time Economics: What Do Tariffs, Oil Prices, a Tight Labor Market and Rising Borrowing Costs Mean for the Economy?"

Low risk as a predictor of financial crises

Low risk as a predictor of financial crises Jon Danielsson (London School of Economics), Marcela Valenzuela (University of Chile), and Ilknur Zer Federal Reserve, May 09, 2018     The global crisis in 2008 blindsided every observer. We had come to believe that crises were a thing of the past. The rules and institutional structure in… Read More The post Low risk as a predictor of financial crises appeared first on The Big Picture.