International Energy Agency warns falling investment risk to economic recovery
PARIS (AP) — The global financial crisis has led to a dangerous drop in energy investment around the world which could choke off the nascent economic recovery, the International Energy Agency said Tuesday.
...The IEA, a policy adviser to 28 mostly industrialized oil-consuming nations, estimates that the financial and economic crisis is responsible for a $90 billion drop in global oil and gas investment this year, a 19 percent cut from 2008.
"Falling energy investment will have far-reaching and, depending on how governments respond, potentially serious consequences for energy security, climate change and energy poverty," the IEA said in its annual World Energy Outlook report.
The resulting drop in oil and electricity supplies could "undermine the sustainability of the economic recovery," the IEA warned.
IEA Cuts 2030 Oil Demand Forecast on Economy, Climate Policy
(Bloomberg) -- The International Energy Agency cut its long-term forecast for global oil demand as the economic crisis saps consumption in developed economies and environmental policies encourage alternative energy use.
Global oil demand is expected to advance 1 percent a year to 105 million barrels a day by 2030 from 85 million barrels a day in 2008, the adviser to 28 nations said today in its annual World Energy Outlook. The figure is below last year’s 2030 estimate of 106 million barrels a day.
“The global financial crisis and ensuing recession have had a dramatic impact on the outlook for energy markets,” the Paris-based agency said in its executive summary of the report. “World energy demand in aggregate has already plunged with the economic contraction.”
IEA report sees oil price at $100 a barrel in 2020
PARIS: The International Energy Agency forecast on Tuesday that the oil price would be $100 a barrel in 2020 and $115 in 2030, saying oil demand would rise by one percent per year.
Energy demand to rise rapidly without CO2 deal: IEA
World energy consumption will rise rapidly over the next 20 years, pushing up costs and increasing greenhouse gases, unless a deal is reached to curb carbon dioxide emissions, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
In its annual World Energy Outlook, the IEA said global energy demand would increase by an average of 2.5 per cent per year over the next five years if governments made no changes to their existing policies and measures.
IEA Expects Gas Glut as Unconventional Output Rises
(Bloomberg) -- There may be an “acute glut” of natural gas in the next few years because of rising production of so-called unconventional fuel in the U.S. and Canada, according to the International Energy Agency.
Global unconventional gas output will rise to 629 billion cubic meters in 2030 from 367 billion cubic meters in 2007, or to 15 percent of worldwide supply from 12 percent, the Paris- based adviser to 28 countries said in its annual World Energy Outlook. Gas supply capacity is set to outpace annual demand growth of 2.5 percent between 2010 and 2015, the IEA said.
“The looming gas glut could have far-reaching consequences for the structure of gas markets and for the way gas is priced in Europe and Asia-Pacific,” the IEA said in the report today.
IEA says oil-gas price link may break
An oversupply of natural gas NG-FT and continuing pressure on oil CL-FT supplies could break the link between gas and oil prices, the head of the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Tuesday.
In many parts of the world outside the United States gas prices are contractually linked to world oil prices but this link has been under pressure in a market that looks awash with cheap gas for years ahead.
Oil stat shock
What the Guardian is saying is that the IEA has been massaging its figures on account of pressure from the US government.
As Morgan Downey over at Scarce Whales points out, that’s a very grave allegation indeed; the IEA after all is an OECD taxpayer-funded institution.
But given the numbers of abrupt revisions the IEA has had to make to its forecasts of late would it be too much of surprise?
As the Guardian states the body is expected to publish its latest World Energy Outlook on oil demand and supply on Tuesday, with the market expecting some “substantial” downward revisions to its long-term forecast for global oil demand.
Kevin Drum: Watching the Watchdog
It's pretty much impossible to know how seriously to take this. It's almost certainly true that analysts within the IEA disagree with each other about long-term projections, and it's also probably true that there are regional pressures of various kinds within the organization. That's pretty normal for international groups.
But is the U.S. actively pushing the IEA to produce figures that it knows to be wrong? And are these two anonymous sources the first ones to ever go public with this? Hmmm. I'm not so sure about that. But the IEA's 2009 World Energy Outlook comes out on Tuesday (last year's projections are above), and we'll see what they have to say then.
Ida makes landfall on U.S. Gulf Coast, hits oil supply
MOBILE, Alabama (Reuters) – A weakening Tropical Storm Ida lashed the U.S. Gulf Coast with drenching rain and high surf on Tuesday as it moved ashore after shutting down almost 30 percent of Gulf of Mexico energy production.
Ida, once a Category 2 hurricane, made its first U.S. landfall at around 6:40 a.m. EST on Dauphin island, the barrier island off Mobile, Alabama, packing maximum sustained winds of 45 miles per hour (75 kilometers per hour).
The Backside of Peak Oil
It's no secret that production in the United States has been tumbling down the backside of peak oil for the last three decades.
I haven't met anyone that believes U.S. production will ever return to its 1970 production level.
Believe me, peak oil in the U.S. isn't a myth. It's about as real as it gets.
In fact, it gets downright ugly when you look at our top oil producers.
Let's take a closer look. . .
Goldman Keeps Crude Forecast at $85 a Barrel by End of Year
(Bloomberg) -- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. is maintaining its forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude to reach $85 a barrel by the end of this year and $95 next year as it expects the market to shift into a “global deficit” in coming months.
“Strong activity” in China’s petrochemical and metals sectors is likely to provide support to global oil demand, while production outside the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is set to decline, generating “further price and returns upside,” Goldman’s analysts led by Allison Nathan said in a report dated Nov. 9.
CNN Student News: Economy News
JONATHAN STERN, OXFORD INSTITUTE FOR ENERGY STUDIES: National oil companies and their governments have taken over the access to all their oil. So, anything that is cheap and easy to produce they will do themselves. They now have the technology and the money to buy the technology. They don't need the IOCs for that.
DEFTERIOS: The IOCs, or international oil companies, are left battling it out for more costly prizes where their expertise and technology remain in demand. Recent discoveries in Kazakhstan, the Gulf of Mexico and off the coast of Brazil have allayed fears of what many call peak oil, the term used to describe falling global production. The new finds, however, come with a heftier price tag.
World oil demand to grow 700,000 bpd in 2010 - OPEC
DOHA (Reuters) - Global oil demand will grow 700,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2010, OPEC's Secretary-General Abdullah al-Badri said in a speech delivered on his behalf on Tuesday.
China and India will lead global economic growth next year, with the producer group forecasting world GDP growth at 2.7 percent next year, up from an earlier forecast of 2.3 percent in July, he said in the text of a speech.
OPEC Won’t Raise Output Because of Stockpiles, Qabazard Says
(Bloomberg) -- OPEC won’t need to raise oil production levels when it meets next month in Angola because stockpiles are “very high,” the group’s head of research said.
“I don’t see that production should be increased,” Hasan Qabazard said in an interview today in Doha, Qatar. “Stocks are a worry, particularly the product stocks. At current calculations we will go to stock build early next year.”
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries made a record 4.2 million barrel-a-day cut in production targets last year as fuel demand tumbled during the worst recession since the 1930s. The group has left quotas unchanged at its three meetings this year.
China slashes Iraq debt for oil deals
China has agreed to forgive 80% of $8.47 billion in debt owed by Iraq, sealing a preliminary deal struck more than two years ago, Iraqi officials said today.
The agreement comes as China's imports of Iraqi crude rise and Chinese oil companies like China National Petroleum Corporation eye contracts to develop Iraq's vast oil reserves as the world's 11th largest oil producer emerges from years of war and sectarian bloodshed.
ANALYSIS - Oil rally complicates China fuel pricing
BEIJING (Reuters) - China's latest fuel price rise may be its last easy fuel pricing decision for a while.
Under a pricing regime that links retail fuel prices to the the global cost of crude, the government upped pump prices for gasoline and diesel by about 7 percent from Tuesday, taking them to the highest ever.
But the system's clarity, the main reason for its introduction at the start of the year, only operates when crude is below $80 a barrel, a level the global benchmark is bumping up against.
China May Have to Raise Gas Price on Higher Costs
(Bloomberg) -- China, the world’s second-largest energy user, must increase domestic natural gas prices to accommodate higher-priced supplies from Qatar and Central Asia, an analyst said.
Liquefied natural gas supplies from Qatar on multiyear contracts may cost 3.95 yuan per cubic meter, or about $16 per million British thermal units after regasification, at the city gate, about 58 percent higher than what households and businesses pay for the fuel in Shanghai, said Tony Regan, a consultant at Tri-Zen International Ltd.
Newcastle Weekly Coal Exports Fall; Ship Queue Rises
(Bloomberg) -- Coal shipments from Australia’s Newcastle port, the world’s biggest export harbor for the fuel, fell by 11 percent last week while the number of vessels waiting to load increased.
E.ON Sells Grid to Tennet for 1.1 Billion Euros to End Probe
(Bloomberg) -- E.ON AG sold its German power network to Dutch electricity-grid operator Tennet BV for 1.1 billion euros ($1.7 billion) to help settle a three-year European Union probe into whether it thwarted competition.
Taylor claims US sought to oust him from power
THE HAGUE, Netherlands -- Charles Taylor claims he was indicted for war crimes as part of a U.S. "regime change" plan to gain control of West African oil reserves.
The former Liberian president has made the allegation in a typically defiant final day of direct testimony in his own defense at the Special Court for Sierra Leone.
PTTEP Won’t Comment on Oil Spill Cause Amid News Report Claim
Bloomberg) -- PTT Exploration & Production Pcl, facing an Australian investigation into the country’s third- worst oil spill, declined to comment on a news article that said the Timor Sea leak was caused by improper capping of a well.
“The company is declining to comment on the possible cause of the incident ahead of the Federal commission of inquiry,” Roley Myers, Perth-based spokesman for the Thai company, said by phone today. The company has seen the news article, he said.
Pennsylvania lawsuit says drilling polluted water
AVELLA, Pennsylvania (Reuters) - A Pennsylvania landowner is suing an energy company for polluting his soil and water in an attempt to link a natural gas drilling technique with environmental contamination.
George Zimmermann, the owner of 480 acres in Washington County, southwest Pennsylvania, says Atlas Energy Inc. ruined his land with toxic chemicals used in or released there by hydraulic fracturing.
‘Reclaim town hearts’
“We have constructed urban places for the last 50 years assuming cars have primacy, with everything built around them,” he said.
“That was the thinking from the 1950s to the 1990s, but now, in the noughties, we are getting different impressions.”
Dr Tolley said health through exercise, Peak Oil and climate change are all forcing changes on our designs and have “put pedestrians and cyclists back on the top of the pile”.
Communities try to prevent pedestrian traffic deaths
Some communities are working to curtail sudden, puzzling increases in pedestrian traffic deaths while safety advocates urge states to spend more federal transportation dollars on sidewalks, crosswalks and safety programs for walkers and bicyclists.
More than 76,000 Americans have been killed walking or crossing the street in the past 15 years, and pedestrians account for about 11.8% of all traffic fatalities, according to the groups Transportation for America and the Surface Transportation Policy Partnership. However, less than 1.5% of federal transportation money is spent on projects for walkers and bicyclists.
Of fish and men: A fable of modern times
Do you think that the US are frantically trying to look for alternate sources of energy just because of climate change? In a decade or so, the petrochemical refinery will most likely be a white elephant, whereas the skills of the fisher folk and the mangrove forest will be vital in keeping their neighbours alive.
Local resilience has started to become a concept that is being propagated by more and more grassroots NGOs the world over. But you can't have local resilience without a working local eco-system.
In Crude World: The Violent Twilight of Oil, Maass presents humanity with a snapshot of the implications of our oil addiction.
Examining oil collection and storage and transportation from locales in the furthest reaches of the globe, “Crude World” is authentic, persuasive, and damning.
“Across the world,” Maass writes, “oil is invoked as a machine of destiny. Oil will make you rich, oil will make you poor, oil will bring war, oil will deliver peace, oil will define our world as much as the glaciers did in the Ice Age.” “Crude World” depicts the inner workings of this petroleum machine to “reveal an order in the world’s disorder.” The power to create great opportunity is part of the myth of petroleum; Maass travels the globe in order to create lively vignettes of the opposite destiny.
Solar Thermal Electricity Production to Jump 100-Fold, IEA Says
(Bloomberg) -- Power generation using giant mirrors and solar panels to concentrate the sun’s rays and turn turbines will expand more than 100-fold over the next two decades, according to the International Energy Agency.
Solar thermal production will increase to 124 terawatt hours of energy in 2030 from less than 1 TWh in 2007, the Paris- based group said today in its annual energy outlook report.
Japan eyes solar station in space
TOKYO (AFP) – It may sound like a sci-fi vision, but Japan's space agency is dead serious: by 2030 it wants to collect solar power in space and zap it down to Earth, using laser beams or microwaves.
The government has just picked a group of companies and a team of researchers tasked with turning the ambitious, multi-billion-dollar dream of unlimited clean energy into reality in coming decades.
U.A.E. Atomic Program May Propel Region Into Nuclear Arms Race
(Bloomberg) -- The United Arab Emirates, which plans to award the Persian Gulf’s first nuclear power contracts this year, may start a regional arms race as its neighbors seek similar technology, according to a Chatham House report.
“Risks from nuclear proliferation cannot be eliminated entirely” from the U.A.E.’s program, Ian Jackson wrote in “Nuclear Energy and Proliferation Risks: Myths and Realities in the Persian Gulf,” published today. “It is possible that the genuine desire of Gulf states to engage in civil peaceful nuclear power could possibly tip the region into a nuclear arms race, especially if state intentions are misunderstood.”
Recession Opens ‘Narrow Window’ to Cut Global CO2, IEA Says
(Bloomberg) -- The global economic crisis has opened “a relatively narrow window of opportunity” to halt the increase in greenhouse gases released by power plants, factories and cars through 2020, the International Energy Agency said.
Annual emissions from using energy may peak at 30.9 billion tons over the coming decade, assuming there is “radical and coordinated policy action across all regions,” the Paris-based agency said today in its World Energy Outlook. The report reiterated estimates first published on Oct. 6, including its forecast that global energy use is set to decline this year for the first time since 1991 because of the recession.
“The financial crisis offers what maybe we a unique opportunity to take necessary steps as the political mood shifts,” the IEA report says. “But this saving will count for nothing if a robust deal is not reached in Copenhagen.”
Texas Gov. Perry: Cap-and-trade would harm state
AUSTIN, Texas — Texas Gov. Rick Perry told renewable energy industry officials that a cap-and-trade climate bill in Congress would increase taxes and devastate the state's energy sector.
Perry, contending that the climate bill would mean "economic disaster" in Texas, said the state is encouraging alternative energy sources while improving the environment.
Climate change makes English winemakers see red
DORKING, England (Reuters) – The pickers working their way along the hillside, clipping bunches of small, dark purple grapes from the rows of vines and dropping them into plastic buckets are harbingers of a warmer planet.
In recent years, aided by milder springs and autumns, a few British wineries have revived a red winemaking tradition which died around 600 years ago.
US seeks climate framework, not legal pact: experts
WASHINGTON (AFP) – Lack of action on the climate change bill bogged down in the US Senate will not stop Washington from seeking a framework to curb carbon emissions at next month's summit in Copenhagen, experts say.
"I don't think that anyone is expecting a legal pact at this point," Michael Levi, an expert on climate issues at the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations, told AFP.
But US President Barack Obama already hinted this week that the United States would seek to create a "framework for progress" at the summit, which he said would pave the way to stem a "potential ecological disaster."
The Maldives' battle against extinction
As its own gesture the Maldives now aims to go "carbon-neutral" by 2020. That means switching to renewable energy sources where it can, and balancing the carbon it does emit through measures like planting forests elsewhere.
There is a major problem - the islands' main earner, top-end tourism, cannot be environmentally friendly. All the clients, and all manner of extraordinary luxury foods from Europe and elsewhere, are flown in.
Glorious vision in Kenya's sky melts away
Mt. Kenya's ice cap was so stunning that some began revering it as God's home. But most of the shining glacier has now disappeared, robbing communities of water and leading to a crisis of faith.
India environment minister under fire over glaciers
India's environment minister came under fire Tuesday from scientists for denying climate change was causing Himalayan glaciers to melt and disputing the work of the UN's top global warming body.
On Monday, Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh said there was no "conclusive scientific evidence" linking global warming to the melting of the glaciers and questioned work by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
The IPCC, a UN body regarded as the world's top authority on climate change, has warned Himalayan glaciers are receding faster than in any other part of the world and could "disappear altogether by 2035 if not sooner".