What we do and why we do it
“We don’t get paid for activity, just for being right. As to how long we will wait, we’ll wait indefinitely.” - Warren Buffett. In treacherous markets, it helps to have some core beliefs. The statement of investment intent most meaningful...
Spoiler warning
“I am certain that my fellow Americans expect that on my induction into the Presidency I will address them with a candour and a decision which the present situation of our people impel. This is pre-eminently the time to speak...
A rush from sugar or a rush to gold ?
“We think we have an agreement, but we are not sure what it is.” - Negotiator at the Euro zone “crisis summit” last week, as reported in The Economist. “You don’t have to be paranoid to be terrified.” - Ditto....
Robot judges and the watched pot
“Gold – a six thousand year-old bubble” - Headline of an FT piece from 2009 by Willem Buiter. There are still reasons to like Mel Brooks, and most of them are in ‘Blazing Saddles’. As with the output of other...
What colour is your lifejacket ?
“Manek: How I beat everyone during volatile summer” - Headline in ‘Investment Week’ extolling the performance of Jayesh Manek’s ‘Manek Growth Fund’, which has so far lost 23.6% during 2011. This is, at heart, a tale of one tragedy, or...
Received wisdom
“Mises was infinitely patient and kind with even the most dim-witted of us, constantly tossing out research projects to inspire us, and always encouraging the shiest and most awestruck to speak. With a characteristic twinkle in his eye, Mises would...
Literae humaniores
“God ! How men of letters are stupid.” - Napoleon Bonaparte. The commentary will now be taking its summer holiday; regular, bitingly objective service will resume in early October. Since the financial crisis slowly wove itself into the popular consciousness,...
Screwed
“..we in Britain are, to use a technical economic term, screwed. Economies across the whole world are struggling. Because nobody is spending money, even relatively blameless countries such as Germany, with low levels of debt and workforces who actually make...
The end of the long con
“Around 2002, a developing country defaulted on its debt. Following protracted negotiations, agreement was reached that the bad debt would be replaced with a smaller amount of new good debt, with all investors losing around half their original investment. The...
Juking the stats
ASSISTANT PRINCIPAL: “So for the time being, all teachers will devote class time to teaching language arts sample questions. Now if you turn to page eleven, please, I have some things I want to go over with you.” ROLAND “PREZ”...
Crowd Control
“The degree of the moves shows the markets are pricing in something really apocalyptic.” - David Shairp, strategist at JP Morgan Asset Management, quoted in the FT. Extraordinary scenes here in the UK, with a parasitical underclass robbing, torching and...
