2011 M&A Forecast
As every year, I would like to start the new year with some thoughts about the M&A volume for the coming year. I’ll be upfront about my outlook for 2011: it will be better than 2010, which itself was better than 2009. See below: There’s a lot of interesting things about the chart above. Most...
M&A Maturity Index — Emerging markets for M&A
If you want to expand overseas — from whatever your base — what do you do? Start up new in a country in which you’ve never operated before? Maybe a joint venture? Do a big acquisition there? If you’ve decided that an acquisition is the best route forward, then you have the big decision to...
Deal code names
One of the more interesting discussions in any deal is at the beginning when you need to decide what the confidential name should be for the project. This is needed because at that time the deal is very hush-hush secretive with few people knowing about the potential takeover or merger. Should the information about the...
Due Diligence Requirements in M&A Deals
In QFinance, a very extensive on-line financial markets resource, I’ve written an article entitled ‘Due Diligence Requirements in Financial Transactions‘. Due diligence is a critical business intelligence process, and in our book on the use of business intelligence in doing M&A deals better (Intelligent M&A, Navigating the Mergers and Acquisitions Minefield), the chapter on due...
M&A Forecast for 2010 — update
Well, we’ve got more than one quarter of the year gone. Is it really possible to see more clearly how 2010 will develop for the M&A markets? I think so, and one reason is the behavioural aspects of the market that cause it to be ‘sticky’, as discussed several weeks ago in an article I...
Politics and M&A
There’s a proposal in the UK to revise the rules governing public takeovers. This has been prompted by the takeover of Cadbury by Kraft, but has been bubbling under the surface for years and gains attention each time there’s a large, contested offer. The forthcoming election has given the proposals new life as well. There...
Joint Ventures: Are they a viable alternative to a full merger or acquisition?
Much of the research and reporting in M&A get done about the headline-grabbing large acquisitions and mergers. However, the unsung hero of corporate alliances are joint ventures. But we expect to see more of these, including some very big JVs. Note the announcement on 1 February of a $12 billion joint venture between oil companies...
Another view on the M&A Market in 2010 and 2011
On Thursday, 18 March, the Financial Times in a special section (‘Deals and Dealmakers’) had an article that I authored entitled: ‘A tough challenge for M&A markets’. In it, I argue that that a number of unavoidable behavioural factors are the principal impediments to a rising M&A market: just as the growth of the market...
‘Upside Risk’ in M&A
I saw a recent posting on the possibility of the stock markets having a ‘buyers’ panic’ as occurred in late summer 1982. At that time, the market increased by 37% in less than two months, having started with an increase of almost 20% as institutional buyer kicked off the rally, which then had retail buyers...
Should you do an IPO or M&A deal now?
There has been a lot of discussion recently about whether the IPO markets have re-opened. IPOs have been announced, but also many retracted as well (note the withdrawal on 10 February of Blackstone’s Travelport and, one day later, Merlin offerings, followed a few days later by Permira’s and Apax’s withdrawal of New Look). Now, it...
M&A market not doing as badly as you think
Where have all the mega-deals gone? There’s certainly been a dearth of deals since year-end. It’s been a long time since I’ve opened up the newpaper in the morning and seen any front-page headlines about a new deal. In fact, it’s been more about cancelled deals (IPOs such as New Look, Travelport and Merlin) or...
2010 in review: Intelligent Mergers Blog