- Google's New Dataset Search Tool - No Hesitations
- Beyond Secular Stagnation - Joseph E. Stiglitz
- Tail Risks - Brad DeLong
- Income inequality in France - VoxEU
- Secular Stagnation Revisited - Roger E.A. Farmer
- Making big data work for economics - Bank Underground
- Why Do We Still Read Adam Smith? - Economic Principals
- Economists Gear Up to Challenge the Monopolies - Noah Smith
- How US Multinationals Shifting Income to Foreign Countries Reduces Measured GDP - Tim Taylor
- Regional variation in US healthcare use: evidence from patient migration - Microeconomic Insights
- Education’s Role in Earnings, Employment, and Economic Mobility - Liberty Street Economics
- Loose Policies Around Close Elections Highlight the Political Limits of Macroprudential Regulation - ProMarket
- Housing Vouchers Can Help More Families Live in Higher-Opportunity Areas - CBPP
- Trump promised farmers ‘smarter’ trade deals. Now he has to bail them out. - The Washington Post
From Steve Maas at the NBER:
New Evidence that Unions Raise Wages for Less-Skilled Workers: Tapping into eight decades of private and public surveys, a new study finds evidence that unions have historically reduced income inequality.
For Unions and Inequality over the Twentieth Century: New Evidence from Survey Data (NBER Working Paper No. 24587), Henry S. Farber, Daniel Herbst, Ilyana Kuziemko, and Suresh Naidu assembled a household-level database on union membership dating back to 1936.
The U.S. Bureau of the Census has tracked wages and education consistently since 1940. Aggregate data on union membership goes back to the early 20th century, but data on individual workers were not readily available until the Census Bureau started asking about union affiliation in 1973. By that time, unions were already in decline, and higher-skilled workers accounted for an increasing share of their membership.
The researchers draw onContinue reading " New Evidence that Unions Raise Wages for Less-Skilled Workers"
- Secular Stagnation, Myth and Reality - Gauti B. Eggertsson
- Setting the Record Straight on Secular Stagnation - Lawrence H. Summers
- Don't Get Into a Knife Fight with Larry Summers - Marginal Revolution
- Some Blogospheric Navel-Gazing - Three-Toed Sloth
- Corporate philanthropy as a tool for political influence - VoxEU
- A Shorter Work Week? - Tim Taylor
- A New Keynesian Model with Wealth in the Utility Function - NBER
- Labor Day: Unions Are Holding Strong in the Nordic Countries - Bloomberg
- Why We Should Worry About Monopsony - INET
- Trump’s Policies Will Displace the Dollar - Jeffrey D. Sachs
- Financial Crisis: The Endgame - Cecchetti & Schoenholtz
- The Numbers Behind a Fields Medalist's Math - Scientific American
- Path dependency in jury decision making - VoxEU
- Lessons from the Greek tragedy unlearnt - mainly macro
- James Mirrlees, economist, 1936-2018 - Financial Times
- Some thoughts on that new Fed paper - Jared Bernstein
- A Continue reading "Links (9/3/18)"
I have been in Hawaii since before the hurricane and kind of fell behind. Oops:
- The Blind Target Shooter - Nick Rowe
- The 1 vs 3 Model of Quick Recessions vs Slow Recoveries - Nick Rowe
- Predictable movements in asset prices around FOMC meetings - VoxEU
- The effect of house prices on household borrowing - VoxEU
- The Myth of Secular Stagnation - Joseph E. Stiglitz
- Saving Capitalism from Economics 101 - Simon Johnson
- What Schumpeter Can Teach Economists about the Great Recession - ProMarket
- How Rising Inequality Has Widened the Justice Gap - The New York Times
- Money Really Does Lead to a More Satisfying Life - The New York Times
- Capitalism, Socialism, and Unfreedom - Paul Krugman
- Why It Can Happen Here - Paul Krugman
- For Whom the Economy Grows - Paul Krugman
- Giving Government Workers the Shaft - Paul Krugman
- Long Memory / Scaling Laws in Return Volatility Continue reading "Links (9/1/18)"
- Partisanship, Parasites, and Polarization - Paul Krugman
- Trade and growth in the Iron Age - VoxEU
- Socialism in one country - Stumbling and Mumbling
- On the Economics of the Google Android Case - ProMarket
- Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee - The Fed
- The myth of intertemporal labour supply substitution - VoxEU
- The price impact of removing the penny - Bank Underground
- Duy: "Bostic Throws Down the Gauntlet" - Calculated Risk
- A Bee Industry Update - Tim Taylor
- Parrots' economics - EurekAlert!
- The G.O.P.’s Climate of Paranoia - Paul Krugman
- The biggest economic policy mistake of the last decade - mainly macro
- The Slippery Slope of Complicity - Paul Krugman
- The IT revolution and the globalisation of R&D - VoxEU
- Sources of Finance: Internal versus External - Cecchetti & Schoenholtz
- Framing Turkey’s Financial Vulnerabilites- Brad Setser
- The making of the Federal Open Market Committee - VoxEU
- Central bank digital currency: Why it matters and why not - VoxEU
Atif Mian and Amir Sufi at VoxEU:
Credit supply and housing speculation, by Atif Mian and Amir Sufi, VoxEU: Charles P. Kindleberger, who was the world’s leading expert on financial crises, wrote that “asset price bubbles depend on the growth in credit” (Kindleberger and Aliber 2005). Nobel prize winner Vernon Smith described evidence from experimental settings showing that that the size of a bubble increased when individuals were allowed to borrow (Porter and Smith 1994). Economic theorists have taken this lesson to heart, writing down models in which easier credit helps fuel asset prices through an increase in speculative buying (Allen and Gorton 1993, Allen and Gale 2000).
A core idea in the theory of credit and bubbles is that easier credit allows optimists with high asset valuations to aggressively buy assets, and therefore boost the price (Geanakoplos 2010, Simsek 2013). Even if optimists form a small part ofContinue reading "Credit Supply and Housing Speculation"
- Something Not Rotten in Denmark - Paul Krugman
- Measuring global economic activity - Jim Hamilton
- For automatic stabilizers - Stumbling and Mumbling
- Parental Assistance after Job Loss - FRB Cleveland
- Inflation targeting and large shocks - VoxEU
- Reskilling over a Lifetime - Tim Taylor
- Nominal price stickiness and real exchange rate fluctuations - VoxEU
- Who’s Afraid of Nancy Pelosi? - Paul Krugman
- Google Android case: Milestone or millstone? - Hal Varian
- Interest rate vs fiscal policy stabilisation - mainly macro
- Does Loyalty Pay Off? - macroblog
- Valuing ‘exclusive eyeballs’ - VoxEU
- Migrant networks boost trade - VoxEU
- Will Demographic Headwinds Hobble China’s Economy? - Liberty Street
- Can Horizontal Mergers Actually Boost Competition? - ProMarket
- Economics of Climate Change: Three Recent Takes - Tim Taylor
- Demand for automated driving technology - VoxEU
From the FRBSF:
FedViews: Kevin J. Lansing, research advisor at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, stated his views on the current economy and the outlook as of August 9, 2018.
The initial estimate of real GDP growth in the second quarter of 2018 came in at 4.1% at an annual rate, resulting in a growth rate of 2.8% over the past four quarters. For 2018 as a whole, we expect growth to come in just under 3%, well above our estimate of the economy’s long-run sustainable growth rate. Given the diminishing effects of federal fiscal stimulus over the next few years and the expected tightening of financial conditions, we project that growth will slow to just under 2% by 2020.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that payroll employment increased by 157,000 jobs in July. Data for the previous two months were revised upward, resultingContinue reading "FRBSF: The Current Economy and the Outlook"
- Partying Like It’s 1998 - Paul Krugman
- The Economy Grew Faster in Truman’s Presidency. So What? - Robert Shiller
- Why the Fed needs a new monetary policy framework - Larry Summers
- Do Import Tariffs Help Reduce Trade Deficits? - Liberty Street
- Aging, Output Per Capita and Secular Stagnation - NBER
- Inequality in the Middle East - VoxEU
- It’s Not Just Carbon Dioxide - Economic Principals
- Human capital and the supply of agricultural workers - VoxEU
- A well-deserved tribute to Nick Rowe - Worthwhile Canadian Initiative
- Protectionism and the business cycle - VoxEU
- Opening the Toolbox: The Nowcasting Code on GitHub - Liberty Street
Supply Chains and Trade War (Very Wonkish): ...last month the IGM Forum weighed in on the issue of supply chains and trade war — the issue that the current trade war, unlike previous trade conflicts, is taking place in a world where much trade consists, not of shipments of consumer goods, but of shipments of inputs used in production. The panelists more or less unanimously agreed that the prevalence of global supply chains increases the cost of trade war. But is the consensus right?
Well, although I yield to nobody in condemning the stupidity and corruption behind Trump trade policy, I’m a bit skeptical about the supply chain concern. Or maybe the best way to say this is that there are three possible stories about how supply chains might increase the costs of trade war, and while two of them are right, I suspect that many economistsContinue reading "Supply Chains and Trade War"
- Mass Politics and "Populism" - Brad DeLong
- Asset prices and wealth inequality - VoxEU
- A Primer on the Jones Act and American Shipping - Tim Taylor
- Trends in mortality inequality in the US and France - VoxEU
- The economic costs of the US-China trade war - VoxEU
- Empires, Past and Present - Capital Ebbs and Flows
- What Should an Economics Research Article Look Like? - Tim Taylor
- Economics of density: evidence from the Berlin Wall - Microeconomic Insights
- The devastating cost of central banks’ caution - Financial Times
- Equality for All? - Roger E.A. Farmer
- Immigrants use little health care, subsidize non-immigrants - EurekAlert!
- The Ahistorical Federal Reserve - J. Bradford DeLong
- No to Academic Normalization of Trump - Dani Rodrik
- Why You Should Care About Unions - The New York Times
- Labour's Bank of England problem - Stumbling and Mumbling
- How Do the Fed’s MBS Holdings Affect the Economy? - Liberty Street
- Macroeconomic Research, Present and Past - Carola Binder
- Is capitalism rigged in favour of elites? - The Economist
- Some Facts on Global Current Account Balances - Tim Taylor
- Factor Model w Time-Varying Loadings - No Hesitations
This is from Riccardo Colacito, Bridget Hoffmann, Toan Phan and Tim Sablik:
The Impact of Higher Temperatures on Economic Growth, by Riccardo Colacito, Bridget Hoffmann, Toan Phan and Tim Sablik, Economic Brief, Richmond Fed: June 2018 was the third-warmest on average across the contiguous forty-eight states since record keeping began in 1895, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Only 1933 and 2016 saw hotter starts to the summer.
Climate scientists project that average global temperatures will rise over the coming decades, which could have a variety of environmental impacts. But what impact would higher temperatures have on the economy? To date, studies of this question have largely focused on developing countries, under the assumption that those countries are more exposed to the effects of higher temperatures. The economy in developing countries is often more reliant on agriculture or other outdoor activities, and those countries haveContinue reading "The Impact of Higher Temperatures on Economic Growth"
Ajay Agrawal, Joshua Gans, and Avi Goldfarb at VoxEU:
Economic policy for artificial intelligence: Artificial intelligence (AI) technologies advanced rapidly over the past several years. Governments around the world responded by developing AI strategies. France released its national AI strategy in March 2018, emphasising research funds, ethical issues, and inequality. China stated a goal of being the top AI country by 2030. The EU, Canada, Japan, the Obama administration, the Trump administration, and many others have put forth their own plans (Sutton 2018). Pessimistic views of the impact of AI on society are widespread. Elon Musk, Stephen Hawking, Bill Gates, and others warn that rapid advances in AI could transform society for the worse. More optimistically, AI could enhance productivity so dramatically that people have plenty of income and little unpleasant work to do (Stevenson 2018). Regardless of whether one adopts a pessimisticContinue reading "Economic Policy for Artificial Intelligence"
Trump hasn’t prepared us for the inevitable economic slowdown, Washington Post: President Trump regularly and proudly takes credit for the U.S. economy’s strong performance. And with rapid growth during the second quarter, the stock market strong, the unemployment rate back below 4 percent and the midterm elections looming, Trump’s rhetoric and that of his supporters will probably escalate in coming months.
In fact, however, the president receives more of a boost from the strong economy than the other way around. This conclusion will only be reinforced if Trump’s current steps toward a trade war retard U.S. economic performance, as is increasingly feared. ...
Fiscal stimulus is like a drug with tolerance effects; to keep growth constant, deficits have to keep getting larger. Some combination of gathering foreign storm clouds, the end of growing fiscal stimulus and the delayed effect of tightening monetary policies may converge to slow orContinue reading "Trump Hasn’t Prepared Us for the Inevitable Economic Slowdown"
David Altig, Nick Bloom, Steven J. Davis, Brent Meyer, and Nick Parker at the Atlanta Fed's macroblog:
Are Tariff Worries Cutting into Business Investment?: "Nobody's model does a very good job of how uncertainty and hits to confidence affect behavior," says Deutsche Bank's Peter Hooper in a recent Wall Street Journal article. Count us as sympathetic to his viewpoint.
That's one reason why a few of us at the Atlanta Fed created a national survey of firms in collaboration with Nick Bloom of Stanford University and Steven Davis of the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. Our Survey of Business Uncertainty (SBU) elicits information about each firm's expectations and uncertainty regarding its own future capital expenditures, sales growth, employment, and costs.
A pressing issue at the moment is whether, and how, firms are reassessing their capital investment plans in light of recent tariff hikes and fears of moreContinue reading "Are Tariff Worries Cutting into Business Investment?"
- Notes on a Butter Republic - Paul Krugman
- An Interview with Avinash Dixit - The Politic
- Trump v. Fed - Cecchetti & Schoenholtz
- The robot paradox - Stumbling and Mumbling
- The ethnic segregation of immigrants in the US from 1850 to 1940 - VoxEU
- The Emergence and Erosion of the Retail Sales Tax - Tim Taylor
- Are Trump’s Policies Hurting Long-Term US Growth? - Kenneth Rogoff
- How Do the Fed's MBS Purchases Affect Credit Allocation? - Liberty Street
- They Want What We’ve Got - Economic Principals
- Stop Calling Trump a Populist - Paul Krugman
- Productivity Measurement Initiative - Brookings
- Why Every Good Economist Should Be Feminist - ProMarket
- Work Requirements Hurt Poor Families—and Won’t Work - Jason Furman
- The Hidden Danger for Trump in the Economy’s Growth Spurt - John Cassidy
- How China beat the Global Financial Crisis - mainly macro