- Springtime for Sycophants - Paul Krugman
- Assessing Trends in Real Shares - Econbrowser
- The consumer benefits of trade agreements - VoxEU
- Towards a Union in the Union - Thomas Piketty
- When Shall We Overcome? - Joseph E. Stiglitz
- AEA draft code of conduct - Women in Economics at Berkeley
- China’s Unnecessary and Counterproductive Fiscal Consolidation - Brad Setser
- Identification Is Not Causality, Causality Is Not Identification - Marc Bellemare
- Trade Wars Can Be a Game of Chicken. Sometimes, Literally. - NYTimes
- Budget deficits, fiscal councils and authoritarian regimes - mainly macro
- The Great Recession took a toll on public health - EurekAlert
- Shares of Real GDP Don't Give the Real Story of Manufacturing - Justin Fox
- Great Recession still plagues workers with lower lifetime wages - EurekAlert!
- The Household Fallacy - Roger E. A. Farmer
- Ergodicity - Roger E. A. Farmer
- Cultural costs of high house prices - Stumbling and Continue reading "Links for 03-13-18"
Jobs Report Gives Fed Cover To Retain Gradual Rate Path: The jobs report gives the Fed cover to retain a gradual rate path. To be sure, the rapid pace of job growth will leave them nervous about an unsustainable pace of growth. But the flat unemployment rate remains consistent with their forecasts. In addition, low wage growth indicates the economy has not pushed past full employment. If inflation remains constrained, the Fed would be pretty much on target for this year. That suggests the three-hike scenario should remain in play. But increased confidence in the outlook and risk management concerns will push up enough “dots” in the next Summary of Economic projections toward four hikes for this year. ...continued here...
- Trump’s Trade Gimmickry - Dani Rodrik
- The three mistakes of centrism - mainly macro
- Trump’s Negative Protection Racket (Wonkish) - Paul Krugman
- Graphs for the Most Basic of Business Cycle Macro Analyses - Brad DeLong
- Inflation? Bring It On. Workers Could Actually Benefit. - Isabel Sawhill
- Immigration: the wrong battle - Stumbling and Mumbling
- Potential threats to central bank independence - VoxEU
- The New Fama Puzzle, post-ZLB - Econbrowser
- FedView - FRBSF
- Special Greeting from the UCLA Causality Blog - Judea Pearl
- Putin’s Stated Plan: A High-Tech Russian Doll - Economic Principals
- The many flaws in the Senate’s rollback of Dodd-Frank - Jared Bernstein
- Job Growth Soars in February, Wage Growth Slows - Dean Baker
- How poor was 18th century France? - Notes On Liberty
- Wicksellian Exchange Rate – losinterest
- Some Economics of Place-Based Policies - Tim Taylor
- The New York Fed DSGE Model Forecast–March 2018 - Liberty Street
- Medicine Markup Continue reading "Links for 03-12-18"
I kind of got behind...
- The gendered impact of eliminating mandatory retirement - Frances Woolley
- What Do Stock Prices Tell Us about the Economy? - Uneasy Money
- The productivity slowdown and labor’s income share - Equitable Growth
- A new take on low interest rates and risk taking - VoxEU
- Publicly funded applied research pays off - VoxEU
- The Real Engine of the Business Cycle - Amir Sufi & Atif Mian
- Will China Out-Innovate the West?- Edmund S. Phelps
- The Blockchain Pipe Dream - Nouriel Roubini & Preston Byrne
- Trump’s Tax on America - Brad DeLong
- What Insights Do Taxi Rides Offer into Federal Reserve Leakage? - Promarket
- Airlines Use Earnings Calls to Coordinate Capacity Reductions - ProMarket
- A Ranting Old Guy With Nukes - Paul Krugman
- Krugman’s Taking Your Questions on Trade - The New York Times
- Oh, What a Trumpy Trade War! - Paul Krugman
- Keynes on the Continue reading "Links for 03-09-18"
- The Force of Decency Awakens - Paul Krugman
- The Hidden Taxes on Women - The New York Times
- Republicans say they favor free markets. Yeah, right. - Washington Post
- Economists vs. Scientists on Long-Term Growth - Kenneth Rogoff
- Bernanke Interviews Yellen - Tim Taylor
- Mathematical Finance - Magic, maths and money
- Regional Consumption Responses and the Aggregate Fiscal Multiplier - Fed
- The dangers of pluralism in economics: the case of MMT - mainly macro
- Why Jay Powell’s Fed taper is not causing tantrums - FT
- Making Globalization Work - William Dudley
- A snippet on bounded rationality - Crooked Timber
- Peer to Peer – Scale and Scalability - Bank Underground
- Weighting the Wage Growth Tracker - macroblog
Fed Changing Its Tune: Yesterday I called attention to this line from Federal Reserve Chairman Powell’s testimony:In gauging the appropriate path for monetary policy over the next few years, the FOMC will continue to strike a balance between avoiding an overheated economy and bringing PCE price inflation to 2 percent on a sustained basis.I interpreted this as a shift in the Fed’s focus. The risks are shifting, hence the new concern about an overheated economy. In contrast, previous iterations of this policy guidance referred to “achieving” and then “sustaining” full employment. Central bankers must view the economy as in a danger zone for inflationary pressures. ...continued here...
“Avoiding An Overheated Economy,” by Tim Duy: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered the Fed’s Semiannual Monetary Policy Report Tuesday morning. Powell smoothly and confidently responded to – or deflected – questions as if he were already seasoned in the role of Chair. As to the content of his remarks, they were hawkish. More hawkish than I anticipated and arguably signaled a significant change of focus for the Fed. ...continued here...
- Bonuses and Bogosity - Paul Krugman
- How Low Can Unemployment Really Go? - The New York Times
- Krugman on Temporary vs Permanent Monetary Injections - David Beckworth
- Two Central Bankers Walk Into a Restaurant... - Tim Taylor
- Fed Chair Jay Powell on Monetary Policy Rules - David Beckworth
- Black/White Disparities: 50 Years After the Kerner Commission - Tim Taylor
- Working Toward the Next Economic Paradigm 1 Mohamed A. El-Erian
- A skeptical view of the impact of the Fed’s balance sheet - Econbrowser
- Understanding the U.S. Investment Income Balance (wonky) - Brad Setser
- Computational social science - Understanding Society
- The Rate of Return on Everything - No Hesitations
- An Assessment of the U.S. Economy - Randal Quarles
Looking For Policy Continuity From Powell, by Tim Duy: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell will tackle his first Semiannual Monetary Policy Report to the Congress this week. The expectation is that Powell will by and large reiterate the case for continued gradual tightening of monetary policy. That has come to mean three rate hikes in 2018, although given the data dependence of policy the risk is that three becomes four. Market participants remains nervous, however, that Powell will set a more hawkish tone indicating a sharp acceleration of rate hikes. I think this very unlikely at this juncture. I do think there is room, however, to emphasize that if fiscal spending supercharges growth in 2018, then rate hikes will continue into 2019. ...Continued here...
- Paroling the Spanish Prisoner (Wonkish) - Paul Krugman
- The Making of Lehman Brothers II - Simon Johnson
- Monetary Policy Cycles and Financial Stability - FRBSF
- Three questions for Federal Reserve chairman Jay Powell - FT
- Options of Last Resort - Liberty Street Economics
- ‘Metrics Monday: What to Do Instead of log(x +1) - Marc F. Bellemare
- Relying on the Fed's Balance Sheet - Cecchetti & Schoenholtz
- Rebuilding macroeconomic theory project - Equitable Growth
- Keynes's General Theory Contains Few Mentions of "Fiscal Policy"- Brad DeLong
- Slok on QE, and a great paper - John Cochrane
- A great EFG - John Cochrane
- Money and monetary stability in Europe, 1300-1914 - VoxEU
- Paul Krugman Looks Back at the Macroeconomic Policy Debate - Brad DeLong
- A Skeptical View of the Impact of the Fed’s Balance Sheet”- William Dudley
- Bulls--- Detection as a Student Learning Goal - Brad DeLong
- Financial Plumbing Most to Blame for 2008 Crisis - IGM Forum
- Foreign exchange interventions: Frequent and effective - VoxEU
- The recession of 2012-13 and the taper tantrum - MacroMania
- Some Thoughts About Economic Exposition in Math and Words - Tim Taylor
- Europeans should stop whining about their appreciating currency - FT Alphaville
- In America’s absence, Japan takes lead on Asian free trade - Washington Post
- Should Hurricane Maria Be Modeled as a Positive Growth Shock? - Brad Setser
"there’s a faction in our country that sees public action for the public good, no matter how justified, as part of a conspiracy to destroy our freedom":
Nasty, Brutish and Trump, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: On Wednesday, after listening to the heart-rending stories of those who lost children and friends in the Parkland school shooting — while holding a cue card with empathetic-sounding phrases — Donald Trump proposed his answer: arming schoolteachers.
It says something about the state of our national discourse that this wasn’t even among the vilest, stupidest reactions to the atrocity. No, those honors go to the assertions by many conservative figures that bereaved students were being manipulated by sinister forces, or even that they were paid actors.
Still, Trump’s horrible idea, taken straight from the N.R.A. playbook, was deeply revealing...
To see why, consider the very case often used to illustrate howContinue reading "Paul Krugman: Nasty, Brutish and Trump"
I am here today:
Economic Fluctuations and Growth Research Meeting
Andrew Atkeson and Monika Piazzesi, Organizers
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco
February 23, 2018 Friday, February 23 9:00 am
Fatih Guvenen, University of Minnesota and NBER
Gueorgui Kambourov, University of Toronto
Burhanettin Kuruscu, University of Toronto
Sergio Ocampo-Diaz, University of Minnesota
Daphne Chen, Florida State University
Use It Or Lose It: Efficiency Gains from Wealth Taxation
Discussant: Roger H. Gordon, University of California at San Diego and NBER 10:15 am
Matteo Maggiori, Harvard University and NBER
Brent Neiman, University of Chicago and NBER
Jesse Schreger, Columbia University and NBER
International Currencies and Capital Allocation
Discussant: Harald Uhlig, University of Chicago and NBER 11:30 am
Katarína Borovičková, New York University
Robert Shimer, University of Chicago and NBER
High Wage Workers Work for High Wage Firms
Discussant: Isaac Sorkin, Stanford University and NBER 1:30 pm
Marcus Hagedorn, University of Oslo
IouriiContinue reading "Economic Fluctuations and Growth Research Meeting"
Fedspeak Reiterates Gradual Path: Fed speakers continue to reiterate that policy remains on a gradual path of tightening. So far, the inflation data and brightening economy has more emboldened their commitment to gradual rate hikes than a faster pace of hikes. What about fiscal policy? That train has left the station, but central bankers don’t seem too concerned – yet. ...continued here...And one more from Tim:
First Impressions of the January FOMC Minutes: The minutes of the January FOMC meeting revealed increasing confidence in the economic outlook. That translated into increased confidence that gradual rate hikes remains the appropriate policy path. Does that mean the central bankers stand poised to raise their “dots” such that the median rate hike projection rises to four hikes? I don’t think so. I read the minutes as wiping away lingering concerns about the inflation outlook and allowing policymakers toContinue reading "Fedspeak and the January FOMC Minutes"
- What Does a True Populism Look Like? It Looks Like the New Deal - Dani Rodrik
- Mapping Capital Flows Into the U.S. Over the Last Thirty Years - Brad Setser
- Stable exploitation - Stumbling and Mumbling
- The World-Wide Fama Puzzle Reversal - Econbrowser
- Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands after the Hurricanes - Liberty Street
- Fed Officials Say Economy Is Ready for Higher Rates - The New York Times
- The Economic Roots of the Rise of Trumpism - John Komlos
- Economic Conditions and Key Challenges Facing the U.S. Economy - Dallas Fed
- Bank bail-ins: Lessons from the Cypriot crisis - VoxEU
Anna Stansbury and Lawrence Summers at VoxEU:
On the link between US pay and productivity, by Anna Stansbury and Lawrence Summers, VoxEU: Pay growth for middle class workers in the US has been abysmal over recent decades – in real terms, median hourly compensation rose only 11% between 1973 and 2016.1 At the same time, hourly labour productivity has grown steadily, rising by 75%.
This divergence between productivity and the typical worker’s pay is a relatively recent phenomenon. Using production/nonsupervisory compensation as a proxy for median compensation (since there are no data on the median before 1973), Bivens and Mishel (2015) show that typical compensation and productivity grew at the same rate over 1948-1973, and only began to diverge in 1973 (see Figure 1). Figure 1 Labour productivity, average compensation, and production/nonsupervisory compensation 1948-2016
Notes: Labour productivity: total economy real output per hour (constructed from BLS andContinue reading "On the Link between US Pay and Productivity"
- Come the Recession, Don’t Count on That Safety Net - The New York Times
- Absolute poverty: when necessity displaces desire - Microeconomic Insights
- Do Job Market Networks Help Recovery from Mass Layoffs? - FRBSF
- Interest Ratess and Exchange Rates Before and After the Crisis - Econbrowser
- Milton Friedman’s Rabble-Rousing Case for Abolishing the Fed - Uneasy Money
- Start preparing for the next financial crisis now - FT
- How internet giants damage the economy and society - FT
- The market failures of Big Tech - FT
Inflation, General Data Flow, Fiscal Stimulus, And Implications For Monetary Policy, by Tim Duy: The data flow remains supportive of the Fed’s forecast of sustained moderate growth. A spike in prices, however, drove core CPI inflation to the fastest monthly pace since 2005, again raising fears that the Fed will accelerate the pace of rate hikes. I still think this is premature. To be sure, the risk is that the Fed hikes rates more than the projected three times this year. But Powell & Co. will need more data to support a faster pace of rate hikes. They will not overreact to data that may prove to be nothing more than a flash in a pan. ...continued here...
- Trump’s Twin Deficits (Wonkish) - Paul Krugman
- Income inequality and aggregate demand - Equitable Growth
- What Do Trade Agreements Really Do? - NBER
- Why Economists Are Worried About International Trade - Greg Mankiw
- Trump’s Tax Success Is at the Expense of His Trade Agenda - Brad Setser
- “Fake news”: the monopoly on the narrative - Branko Milanovic
- When the impartial spectator is missing - Stumbling and Mumbling
- The Stubbornly High Cost of Remittances - Cecchetti & Schoenholtz
- Arms and Projects (Wonkish) - The Leisure of the Theory Class
- House prices and rents in the UK - mainly macro
- Economics in Two Lessons - Crooked Timber
- Economics in Two Lessons: Chapter 1 - Crooked Timber
- Leading on Climate at Every Level - Regulatory Review
- U.S. GDP Expenditure Components - MacroMania
- More on Neural Nets and ML - No Hesitations
- Do Trump’s deficits matter? - mainly macro
- Missing Productivity Growth - Continue reading "Links for 02-19-18"
"our job, whether we’re policy analysts or journalists, isn’t to be “balanced”; it’s to tell the truth":
Budgets, Bad Faith and ‘Balance’, by Paul Krugman, NY Times: Over the past couple of months Republicans have passed or proposed three big budget initiatives. First, they enacted a springtime-for-plutocrats tax cut that will shower huge benefits on the wealthy while offering a few crumbs for ordinary families — crumbs that will be snatched away after a few years, so that it ends up becoming a middle-class tax hike. Then they signed on to a what-me-worry budget deal that will blow up the budget deficit to levels never before seen except during wars or severe recessions. Finally, the Trump administration released a surpassingly vicious budget proposal that would punish not just the vulnerable but also most working families.
Looking at all of this should make you very angry... But my anger isn’tContinue reading "Paul Krugman: Budgets, Bad Faith and ‘Balance’"