Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 11/12/18 – 11/16/18 [PREMIUM]

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/12/18 through 11/16/18. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list. More

Moving Average Timing of Stock Fundamental Ratios [PREMIUM]

Can investors time premiums associated with widely used stock/firm fundamental ratios? In their September 2018 paper entitled “It Takes Two to Tango: Fundamental Timing in Stock Market”, Fuwei Jiang, Xinlin Qi, Guohao Tang and Nan Huang use a simple moving average (SMA) trend indicator to time premiums associated with four fundamental stock/firm ratios: book-to-market (BM), earnings-to-price (EP), gross profitability More

Inflation Forecast Update

The Inflation Forecast now incorporates actual total and core Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for October 2018. The actual total (core) inflation rate for September is higher than (the same as) forecasted.

Which Economic Variables Really Matter for Stocks? [PREMIUM]

Which economic variables are most important for predicting stock returns? In their October 2018 paper entitled “Sparse Macro Factors”, David Rapach and Guofu Zhou apply machine learning to isolate via sparse principal component analysis (PCA) which of 120 economic variables from the FRED-MD database most influence stocks. These variables span output/income, labor market, housing, consumption, orders/inventories, money/credit, yields/exchange rates More

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 11/5/18 – 11/9/18 [PREMIUM]

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 11/5/18 through 11/9/18. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list. More

Recent Overnight-Intraday Stock Return Correlations [PREMIUM]

Do intraday U.S. stock returns still tend to reverse preceding overnight returns as found in prior research? In their August 2018 paper entitled “Overnight Return, the Invisible Hand Behind The Intraday Return? A Retrospective”, Ben Branch and Aixin Ma revisit prior research on the relationship between overnight and intraday returns of U.S. stocks. Specifically, they relate average More

Managing Stock Portfolio Trading Frictions [PREMIUM]

What is the best way to suppress trading frictions for active, long-term stock portfolios? In their September 2018 paper entitled “Comparing Cost-Mitigation Techniques”, Robert Novy-Marx and Mihail Velikov compare three approaches to suppression of trading frictions for long-term stock factor premium capture strategies: Limiting selection to stocks that are cheap to trade. Rebalancing infrequently. Imposing a penalty More

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 10/29/18 – 11/2/18 [PREMIUM]

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 10/29/18 through 11/2/18. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list. U.S. Stock More

Momentum Strategy, Value Strategy and Trading Calendar Updates

We have updated monthly Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) winners and associated performance data at “Momentum Strategy”. We have updated monthly Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) allocations and associated performance data at “Value Strategy”. We have also updated performance data for the “Combined Value-Momentum Strategy”. We have updated the “Trading Calendar” to More

Preliminary Momentum Strategy and Value Strategy Updates

The home page, “Momentum Strategy” and “Value Strategy” now show preliminary Simple Asset Class ETF Momentum Strategy (SACEMS) and Simple Asset Class ETF Value Strategy (SACEVS) positions for November 2018. For SACEMS, the top three positions are unlikely to change by the close, but their order may change. For SACEVS, allocations are very unlikely to change by More

Exploiting Consensus Mutual Fund Conviction Stock Picks [PREMIUM]

Does combining the wisdom of multiple stock-picking models via ensemble methods, as done in forecasting landfall of hurricanes, improve investment portfolio performance? In their September 2018 paper entitled “Ensemble Active Management”, Alexey Panchekha, Robert Tull and Matthew Bell test the application of ensemble methods to active portfolio management, looking for consensus or near-consensus among multiple, independent stock picking sources. Ensemble More

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 10/22/18 – 10/26/18 [PREMIUM]

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 10/22/18 through 10/26/18. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list. More

Stock Liquidity Premium Update [PREMIUM]

Two major theories of asset pricing include: one based on asset risk (the market compensates inherent riskiness); and, another based on asset illiquidity (the market compensates illiquidity). In his July 2018 paper entitled “Illiquidity and Stock Returns: A Revisit”, Yakov Amihud presents cross-sectional and time series analyses of illiquidity and U.S. stock returns that extend the More

Public Debt, Inflation and the Stock Market [PREMIUM]

When the U.S. government runs substantial deficits, some experts proclaim the dollar’s inevitable inflationary debasement and bad times for stocks. Other experts say that deficits are no cause for alarm, because government spending stimulates the economy, and the country can bear more debt. Who is right? Using annual (end of fiscal year, FY) level of More

Assessment of Smart Beta Investing [PREMIUM]

What are the implications of rapid global adoption of factor (smart beta) investing in single-factor, multi-factor and dynamic multi-factor strategies, most notably via equity exchange-traded funds (ETF). In their September 2018 paper entitled “Smart-Beta Herding and Its Economic Risks: Riding the Dragon?”, Eduard Krkoska and Klaus Schenk-Hoppé summarize the current state of smart beta investing, providing a More

Weekly Summary of Research Findings: 10/15/18 – 10/19/18 [PREMIUM]

Below is a weekly summary of our research findings for 10/15/18 through 10/19/18. These summaries give you a quick snapshot of our content the past week so that you can quickly decide what’s relevant to your investing needs. Subscribers: To receive these weekly digests via email, click here to sign up for our mailing list. Evolution of More

Do Equal Weight ETFs Beat Cap Weight Counterparts? [PREMIUM]

“Stock Size and Excess Stock Portfolio Growth” finds that an equal-weighted portfolio of the (each day) 1,000 largest U.S. stocks beats its market capitalization-weighted counterpart by about 2% per year. However, the underlying research does not account for portfolio reformation/rebalancing costs and may not be representative of other stock universes. Do exchange-traded funds (ETF) that implement More

Stock Size and Excess Stock Portfolio Growth [PREMIUM]

Why do simple stock portfolios such as equal weighting and random weighting beat market capitalization weighting over the long run? In their June 2018 paper entitled “Diversification, Volatility, and Surprising Alpha”, Adrian Banner, Robert Fernholz, Vassilios Papathanakos, Johannes Ruf and David Schofield tackle this question by decomposing expected stock portfolio log-return into average growth rate and excess growth rate (EGR). They More