Collapse! The Commemorative Game of the Financial Crisis

A few weeks ago we noted that we had just received a big delivery of an item we had made. Without further ado, behold Collapse! -- The Commemorative Game of the Financial Crisis. Collapse! is a commemorative game that takes a light hearted approach to the very serious events of the financial crisis. The game allows players to relive the...

Collapse! The Commemorative Game of the Financial Crisis

A few weeks ago we noted that we had just received a big delivery of an item we had made. Without further ado, behold Collapse! -- The Commemorative Game of the Financial Crisis. Collapse! is a commemorative game that takes a light hearted approach to the very serious events of the financial crisis. The game allows players to relive the...

Blog Switch

After a nice run for nearly 3 years on Typepad, we've decided to move Think B.I.G. to a Squarespace platform. From here on out, all of our posts will be at www.bespokeinvest.com. If you have this site bookmarked in your favorites or on RSS feed, please be sure to switch over. There is a new RSS feed button at www.bespokeinvest.com....

Blog Switch

After a nice run for nearly 3 years on Typepad, we've decided to move Think B.I.G. to a Squarespace platform. From here on out, all of our posts will be at www.bespokeinvest.com. If you have this site bookmarked in your favorites or on RSS feed, please be sure to switch over. There is a new RSS feed button at www.bespokeinvest.com....

Default Risk For Financials Shoots Up

During the financial crisis, we created an index that tracks credit default swap prices for the major banks and brokers across the world. This essentially measures default risk for the financial sector. After declining significantly for the past 9 months, the index has spiked in recent weeks to its highest level since last September. As shown below, the downtrend line...

Default Risk For Financials Shoots Up

During the financial crisis, we created an index that tracks credit default swap prices for the major banks and brokers across the world. This essentially measures default risk for the financial sector. After declining significantly for the past 9 months, the index has spiked in recent weeks to its highest level since last September. As shown below, the downtrend line...

What Is Getting Hit Hardest?

We broke the S&P 500 into deciles (10 groups of 50 stocks) based on stock performance in 2009 to see if the big winners from last year are the ones getting hit the hardest on the recent pullback. As shown below, they definitely are. The 50 best performing S&P 500 stocks in 2009 have averaged a decline of 9.5% since...

What Is Getting Hit Hardest?

We broke the S&P 500 into deciles (10 groups of 50 stocks) based on stock performance in 2009 to see if the big winners from last year are the ones getting hit the hardest on the recent pullback. As shown below, they definitely are. The 50 best performing S&P 500 stocks in 2009 have averaged a decline of 9.5% since...

Ugly Tape

After trading up nearly 1% in the morning, the major markets have tumbled in afternoon trading. This type of action, when the market trades sharply down even though economic reports and earnings reports both beat estimates handily, is not good. There's simply no way to sugercoat it. Since the start of the pullback, earnings and economic numbers have remained strong,...

Ugly Tape

After trading up nearly 1% in the morning, the major markets have tumbled in afternoon trading. This type of action, when the market trades sharply down even though economic reports and earnings reports both beat estimates handily, is not good. There's simply no way to sugercoat it. Since the start of the pullback, earnings and economic numbers have remained strong,...

Contributions to Real GDP Growth in Q4

Below we highlight the breakdown of contributions to the 5.7% Real GDP Growth in Q4 (YoY). Consumption and inventories were big contributors to growth, along with exports due to the weak dollar. One area that didn't contribute to the 5.7% GDP growth was government. In fact, government's contribution to Q4 GDP actually acted as a drag, as the marginal contribution...

Contributions to Real GDP Growth in Q4

Below we highlight the breakdown of contributions to the 5.7% Real GDP Growth in Q4 (YoY). Consumption and inventories were big contributors to growth, along with exports due to the weak dollar. One area that didn't contribute to the 5.7% GDP growth was government. In fact, government's contribution to Q4 GDP actually acted as a drag, as the marginal contribution...

Sector Earnings Beat Rate and Stock Performace

The current earnings per share "beat" rate this earnings season is 73% for all US stocks. Below we highlight the percentage of companies in each sector that have beaten estimates. As shown, only three sectors have a higher beat rate than the overall market -- Materials (76.7%), Consumer Discretionary (83.7%), and Technology (87%). Two of the three sectors that are...

Sector Earnings Beat Rate and Stock Performace

The current earnings per share "beat" rate this earnings season is 73% for all US stocks. Below we highlight the percentage of companies in each sector that have beaten estimates. As shown, only three sectors have a higher beat rate than the overall market -- Materials (76.7%), Consumer Discretionary (83.7%), and Technology (87%). Two of the three sectors that are...

GDP Rises to Highest Level Since 2003

While the ultimate pace of the economic rebound continues to be debated, GDP in the fourth quarter rose 5.7% (expectations were for growth of 4.6%), which was the fastest pace in six years. Granted, this growth follows an even bigger decline of 6.4% in the first quarter of 2009, but at least it's a start. Judging by the performance of...

GDP Rises to Highest Level Since 2003

While the ultimate pace of the economic rebound continues to be debated, GDP in the fourth quarter rose 5.7% (expectations were for growth of 4.6%), which was the fastest pace in six years. Granted, this growth follows an even bigger decline of 6.4% in the first quarter of 2009, but at least it's a start. Judging by the performance of...

Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages

As shown below, the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages in the S&P 500 has dropped to 35%. This is the lowest level seen since mid-2009. Clearly breadth has gotten weak on this pullback. No sectors have more than 50% of stocks above their 50-days, and Consumer Discretionary has the highest reading at 48%. Materials is the weakest...

Percentage of Stocks Above 50-Day Moving Averages

As shown below, the percentage of stocks above their 50-day moving averages in the S&P 500 has dropped to 35%. This is the lowest level seen since mid-2009. Clearly breadth has gotten weak on this pullback. No sectors have more than 50% of stocks above their 50-days, and Consumer Discretionary has the highest reading at 48%. Materials is the weakest...