Finance

Analysts at CRT in that firm’s morning note point out that the imbalance between speculative positions in the very short end of the market and shorts in longer maturities are as wide as they have been since April 2008. Here is the relevant paragraph from CRT: “Finally, we’ll mention something that’s been in place for weeks...

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are posting modest losses in overseas trading. The once mighty greenback is faltering versus the Euro as that currency has gained about a  penny. Gold has raced to a record high and oil is posting solid gains. European equity markets have posted robust gains and premarket trading suggests that the euphoria will...

The New York Times carries a story on the financing debacle which the US will face as debts come due over the next several years. I do not think that the Treasury has thought through the arduous task that it will confront when the exigencies of circumstances force it to sell piles of debt into a...

Professor James Hamilton of the University of San Diego and also of the first rate blog Econo Browser chimed in on the debate about plunging bill rates. Here is an excerpt from a Bloomberg story: “The question is what are you going to do with all the money that has been created?” said James Hamilton, a...

The week ahead Orders for durable goods likely rose moderately in October (UBSe 1.0%, cons 0.5%, after 1.4%). We forecast a decline in the Conference Board measure of consumer confidence (UBSe 45.5, cons 47.5, after 47.7) in November, while our forecast for the Michigan measure (UBSe 66.5, cons 67.0) is up slightly from early November...

Populists, faux populists, bloggers and other commentators have taken aim at the Federal Reserve and its formerly sacrosanct independence. The one exalted institution is under assault on all sides. Here is some non hyperventilating prose on the topic by Tim Duy at Economists View.

Here is a piece that Merrill Lynch or is it Bank America put out this morning regarding a default by the Ukraine: “Rumors circulated this morning that Ukraine sovereign debt would be under pressure for default, possibly related to Ukraine State Railway failing to make $110 million payment plus $8 mln in interest.  This debt is...

A reader sent this along and it is commentary from a  London based trader. Note the comment about the “scramble for collateral”. That is a reference to the forces driving bill rates to negative levels and other short rates to record lows. This is a fellow trading a position and there is no mention of systemic...

Prices of Treasury coupon securities are registering, on balance, modest changes in overseas trading. The massive wall of liquidity sloshing through the market has driven short rates lower while the longer maturities are unchanged. Against that background, the yield on the 2 year note has edged lower by 2 basis points to 0.68 percent. The yield...

In my closing post I noted that T bill rates arein negative territory and gave some reasons for that. Here is an excerpt from David Ader of CRT on that same topic; “We instead take our cue from activity in the financing markets, where year end is playing its hand – Jan bills are trading negative. ...

The House of Representatives is working on a draft bill that would more closely regulate large financial institutions in an effort to reduce the systemic risk that pushed the economy deep into recession. The nearly 300-page bill deals with a number of tough issues, including the role of the Federal Reserve in providing credit to non-banks (the “exigent circumstances”...

Prices of Treasury coupon securities have posted modest gains today but have retreated from their best levels as the 10 year note flirted with the 3.30 level which has acted as a barrier in the recent past. I do not speak to often of the T bill market but yields in that market continue to collapse....