2017-07-17 15:49:57.920 GMT By Adam Tempkin
(Bloomberg) — U.S. CMBS loan delinquencies increased 22bps
to 3.72% in June from 3.50% a month earlier, the largest month-
over-month spike in six years, Fitch said in a statement.
* This represented largest monthly increase in delinquencies
since the 9.01% peak in July 2011
* Silver lining is that halfway through 2017, loan delinquencies
so far remain considerably below Fitch’s estimate of between
5.25% and 5.75%
* Primary reasons are strong repayment activity of maturing
loans during the first six months of the year, many of which
were previously identified as highly leveraged and would face
* Remainder of the year looks promising with only $20b left to
refinance in 2017 and new issuance still healthy
* Fitch lowering its year-end Continue reading "Delinquent CMBS Creeping Higher"
Monday, June 12, 2017
Stocks are lower in Asia and Europe overnight and NASDAQ futures are down enough this morning to suggests Friday’s tech selloff will continue today. US 10-yr note yields were higher overnight but have fallen back to 2.209%, likely in part thanks to the weakness in equities.
The front page Fed-vs-the-financial markets article in today’s WSJ dives into what ought to be the most controversial reason the Fed is raising rates this year: They have decided stocks are overvalued and they can’t stand when long-term interest rates fall when they raise short rates. The paper notes the Goldman Sachs Financial Conditions Index, which has fallen considerably since December, suggesting markets have eased more than the Fed has tightened. The GSFCI is just exactly the sort of thing the Fed loves Continue reading "Some Fed Policy Analysis"
The New York Times is reporting that the Trump Administration has settled on nominees for 2 of the 3 open Fed Board slots.
Randall Quarles is said to be the appointee for the Vice Chair in charge of bank regulation, effectively replacing Tarullo. His name has been out there for a while and I wrote about him when he was first rumored to be appointed. I am attaching that email to this piece.
The other name, which is new, is Marvin Goodfriend. I actually worked for Marvin for a while when I was a young Junior Economist at the Richmond Fed. At the time, he was the Director of Research, essentially the #2 policy guy at the bank. He left the Richmond Fed for academia about a decade ago and is currently one of the leaders of the Continue reading "Comments on Possible Fed Appointees"
• Special Elections: On Tuesday night, voters in two counties on the eastern outskirts of Oklahoma City cast ballots in a special election to fill a vacancy for Oklahoma’s 28th State House District, a seat Republicans should have held without so much as an eyeblink: Donald Trump carried it by a monster 73-23 margin in November, even better than Mitt Romney’s 69-31 win four years earlier.
So what happened? Republican Zack Taylor, the owner of an oil and gas company, eked out just a 50-48 victory over attorney Steve Barnes, his Democratic opponent, a difference of only 56 votes. That is, simply put, a stunning Continue reading "GOP Collapse in Reddest of States"
2017-05-10 13:46:39.346 GMT By Felice Maranz and Brian Chappatta
(Bloomberg) — Donald Trump’s abrupt firing of FBI Director
James Comey Continue reading "Firing Comey and Trump Agenda"
Ø CitiFX Weekly RoundUp: Sacre Bleur. To parity and beyond? … and on US RATES (“flip a coin”), “The 2.30% area we have been highlighting on US 10s is now coming under pressure. Our medium to long term bias of higher US yields remains unchanged; however, the question is whether the base is in from which we will move higher or whether a broader decline (position flush out) will first be seen before higher levels later in the year. Unfortunately, for the time being, the answer Continue reading "Resistance Broken"