Finance

The long-term negative divergences that printed in February and March provided us clues that we'd at least see some near-term trepidation and possibly something much worse. Well, the "much worse" has arrived. There is no technical sign - bullish or bearish - that ever provides us a guarantee so a bit of cautious skepticism can...

Everything seemed perfectly aligned for the bulls. In March, slowing momentum on the bulls' side was a growing concern, but the consolidation that took place in the latter part of March and throughout April relieved that concern, so technically it appeared the bulls might resume control of the action. Take a look at the negative...

Once a month, the stock market provides us a unique opportunity. In basketball terms, it's like the market makers have the ball with time running out in the quarter - or the game - and they nearly always bury that critical three-pointer. For those more predisposed to hockey, think about the "empty net" goal to...

I'm not quite sure why, but there definitely is a positive bias towards small cap stocks as we approach the Spring season. April and May are the 2nd and 3rd best calendar months in terms of annualized returns on the Russell 2000. Only December boasts a better monthly record since 1988. Over the past five...

I'm not quite sure why, but there definitely is a positive bias towards small cap stocks as we approach the Spring season. April and May are the 2nd and 3rd best calendar months in terms of annualized returns on the Russell 2000. Only December boasts a better monthly record since 1988. Over the past five...

In my last article, I featured a weekly NASDAQ chart and pointed out that the MACD was coming up off the centerline and pointing higher. I indicated this was a very bullish signal for the intermediate- to longer-term and supported my belief that equity prices would continue to rise in 2012 - at least until...

In earlier articles, I wrote about key upcoming resistance on banks and the "January Effect". Very strong performance in January suggests that equities will continue to rally throughout 2012. If the recent performance in the banking industry is any indication, consider it confirmation. If you study history, you'll find that the stock market performs very...

It takes time and patience for continuation patterns to play out. Many traders grow frustrated, especially after the stealth move higher ends because of the time involved for continuation patterns to form. The current bull market in gold has lasted more than a decade and there are few technical signs of it ending now. First,...

Two weeks ago, I wrote that equities were very overbought and quite complacent. While we didn't see any selling of substance, the market did struggle to move up - that is, until Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls hit the wires. What a blowout number it was! Let's revisit that EOPCR chart to get a fresh update: Relative...

Ok, I'll admit I'm being a little dramatic. But everyone should know how I feel about my favorite sentiment indicator - Relative Complacency/Pessimism. One month ago as the market was dropping, I wrote about how relative pessimism was building and how that could limit the downside action. Well, today the reverse is true. On Thursday,...

High volatility is generally associated with declining equity prices. The inverse is true as a declining level of volatility emboldens the bulls. Therefore, I follow the VIX continually to get a sense of DIRECTION. Clearly, the volatility index (VIX) has been trending lower over the past few months. So it should come as no shock...

I always find myself turning my attention to "next year" in the stock market as we enter the December holiday season. On many fronts, 2011 has been the most challenging year in equities that I've ever seen. Sure, the losses in 2008 and the fear that accompanied those losses were worse, but there were many...