For stocks, Goldilocks no longer good IMO
With ISM manufacturing, ADP jobs report, ISM services and government payrolls all released each of the next 4 days, the question is what does the market want to see. What I believe it doesn’t want to see is exactly what it loved in the 1990′s, a Goldilocks Economy, not too hot, not too cold. In...
Dallas mfr’g goes negative, Homeownership rate falls again
The last regional April Fed manufacturing survey, the Dallas figure, is out and it went negative to -3.4 from +10.8 in March and well below expectations of +8.0. New Orders, Backlogs, Employment, Shipments, Production and Prices Paid and Received all fell from March. Inventories though did rise. The Company Outlook did fall 14 pts to...
Not surprisingly, Spain in a recession. Austerity!?
Not surprisingly, Spain said their economy is officially back in a recession as Q1 GDP contracted .3% q/o/q for a 2nd straight quarter. It was though a touch better than expected and bonds and CDS are unchanged but stocks are lower. Spain’s recession following the UK is of course bringing front and center the debate...
Succinct Summation Of Week’s Events (4/27/2012)
Succinct summation of week’s events: Positives: 1) Personal Consumption within Q1 GDP rises 2.9%, better than expected and the best since Q4 ’10. Helped also by weather, residential construction jumps 19.1% in Q1. 2) Pending Home Sales in Mar up 4.1% vs est of 1.0%. 3) Mar New Home Sales 9k better than expected and...
Succinct Summation Of Week’s Events (4/27/2012)
Succinct summation of week’s events: Positives: 1) Personal Consumption within Q1 GDP rises 2.9%, better than expected and the best since Q4 ’10. Helped also by weather, residential construction jumps 19.1% in Q1. 2) Pending Home Sales in Mar up 4.1% vs est of 1.0%. 3) Mar New Home Sales 9k better than expected and...
Confidence ticks up to best since Feb ’11
The final look at April UoM confidence at 76.4 was a bit better than expectations of 75.7 and the preliminary reading of 75.7 and is up from 76.2 in March. It’s the best since Feb ’11 but the components were mixed as while Current Conditions rose 2.3 pts, the Outlook fell by a slight .2...
Confidence ticks up to best since Feb ’11
The final look at April UoM confidence at 76.4 was a bit better than expectations of 75.7 and the preliminary reading of 75.7 and is up from 76.2 in March. It’s the best since Feb ’11 but the components were mixed as while Current Conditions rose 2.3 pts, the Outlook fell by a slight .2...
Initial Claims remain above 380k
For a 3rd straight week, Initial Jobless Claims were above 380k. At 388k for the week ended Saturday, it’s 13k above expectations and last week was revised up by 3k to 389k. The 4 week average moved up to 382k from 376k, the highest since early Jan. Bottom line, the 1st week above 380k we...
FOMC speaks
The FOMC statement is almost identical to the one given in March with its comments both on the economy and inflation and their current policy. There is a slight acknowledgement of the influence of higher energy prices on inflation as they said “inflation has picked up somewhat, mainly reflecting higher prices of crude oil and...
Succinct Summation of Week’s Events (4/20/12)
Succinct summation of the week’s events. Positives: 1) German IFO business confidence and ZEW investor economic confidence both point to a teflon economy right now in light of debt drama with their neighbors 2) Spain sold 12 mo, 18 mo, 2 yr and 10 yr debt successfully, yields hold steady near highest since Dec 3)...
Where is central bank put now?
The Spanish IBEX, lower by 2.4%, ended just 1.3% above its March ’09 closing low and 3.1% above its intraday March ’09 low. The Italian MIB closed at the lowest level since Nov. Italian CDS is at a 3 month high, Spain is near record highs at just shy of 500 bps and France is...
Where is central bank put now?
The Spanish IBEX, lower by 2.4%, ended just 1.3% above its March ’09 closing low and 3.1% above its intraday March ’09 low. The Italian MIB closed at the lowest level since Nov. Italian CDS is at a 3 month high, Spain is near record highs at just shy of 500 bps and France is...
