Moody’s downgrades 16 Spanish banks
Home prices fell in a record number of Chinese cities in April (46 out of 70) according to the National Bureau of Statistics, with Wenzhou prices down -12.3% YoY, being the worst. There does not seem to be any respite. Nationwide prices are -1.2% lower YoY in April – in reality much, much lower. Car...
Back to following Greece
Australian consumer confidence rose +0.8% to 95.3, though near the weakest level this year. The wage price index rose by +0.9% last Q, on a Q/Q basis. The A$ remains weak and the RBA is likely to reduce rates further, in particular, as China slows; Yuan forward rates declined to the weakest level this year....
A change in EZ policies is coming
Exit polls in North Rhine Westphalia (“NRW”) indicate that the centre-left opposition of the SPD and Greens will gain a clear majority in Germany’s most important state. The CDU’s share of the vote declined to 26%, from 35% in 2010 and is the CDU’s worst result in the post-war period. The results also confirm a...
JPM announces major losses on its “hedges”
Chinese inflation declined to +3.4% YoY in April (in line with forecasts), from +3.6% in March and below the Government’s target of +4.0% for the third consecutive month. Food prices declined. The producer price index fell -0.7% in April YoY, as compared to a decline of -0.3% in March. Industrial production increased by +9.3% YoY,...
Wow! Bundesbank “accepts” higher inflation
Australia’s unemployment rate declined to a one year low of 4.9% in April, from 5.2% in March and as opposed to a rise to 5.3% forecast. However, the data reveals that the decline was caused by an increase in part time employment (+26k), with full time unemployment down (-10.5k). The A$ rose on the news....
A further election in Greece likely
Australia’s trade deficit increased to A$1.587bn in March, the 3rd consecutive decline and higher than the revised deficit of A$754bn in February. The deficit was the largest since October 2009 and higher than the A$1.3bn forecast. With weakening demand for commodities from a slowing China, Australia is likely to face continued deficits, weakening the A$...
Very disappointing NFP data
The Australian Central Bank, the RBA, has reduced its growth and inflation forecasts for the country. The mining sector has been performing to date, though the rest of the economy is facing continued pressure. However, with a slowdown in China expected, the mining sector will be negatively impacted impacted. The country unexpectedly announced a trade...
Weaker US data
Japan will shut down its last nuclear power station by the end of the week. The shutdown has resulted in Japan importing vast quantities of LNG, oil and coal. There are expectations that the Japanese will reopen some of their nuclear reactors by late summer, but local authorities remain opposed. The additional demand for energy...
Murdoch deemed unfit to run a global company
The Australian Central Bank, the RBA, has unexpectedly cut interest rates by 50bps today, reducing its benchmark interest rate to 3.75%. Many, including myself, had expected the RBA to have cut rates earlier and the higher than expected cut of 50bps (25bps was expected) reflects, in my humble opinion, the fact that they have delayed...
Spain in recession once again
Australian new home sales declined by -9.4%, to a record low in March MoM. The RBA is set to cut interest rates tomorrow; Japan is set to increase it’s spending on defence and, in addition, may effectively change its policy in respect of it’s military – to allow foreign intervention for the 1st time since...
Likely diplomatic friction between the US and China
Australia is drought free for the 1st time in a decade – a really big deal down under. Agricultural production should increase, which means lower prices – a relief to many (particularly in EM’s) and a resultant decline in inflation? Good news if it turns out that way; Just a further point on the BoJ’s...
Weaker US 1st Q GDP
To avoid social discontent and, in addition to stimulate the economy, China has embarked on a (serious?) policy of building cheap housing for the urban poor. A total of 5mn homes are expected to be built this year, with goal of reaching 36mn by 2015. However, the financing for this proposed rapid build out is...
