The Chinese Growth Story
This came in overnight via the FT. China’s economy expanded 8.9 per cent in the fourth quarter of last year, extending a slowdown that began at the start of 2011 and is expected to continue into 2012. That’s a full percentage lower than Q1 2011. So clearly the Chinese economy has slowed in reaction to...
Germany is already in a recession too
Edward Harrison here. Happy New Year to Naked Capitalism readers. You’ve probably seen this from early in the morning: Germany printed a negative GDP growth number for Q4. Here’s what I said earlier today at Credit Writedowns about this news. As I predicted in a message to Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers on Monday, statistics have...
Wray: Krugman has shined the headlights on the crucial currency issuer-currency user difference
Edward Harrison here. The post by Randall Wray below is an interesting one because it points out how the world has changed since the end of the gold standard and why the sovereign debt crisis is centered in the euro zone. While I have an Austrian bias overall, for me, MMT is the best way...
Dog whistle economics’ code words
Here are a few code words that you will often see in economic writing followed by their true meaning. The code word is a dog whistle. It acts like an emotional marker only for those attuned to the underlying ‘moral’ issues implied by the code. While you may agree with the logical framework behind the...
IMF and ECB to offer Italy a 600 billion euro bailout (sources)
Cross-posted from Credit Writedowns There is a flurry of activity going on in Euroland this weekend. I have a number of stories up on different proposals in the offing. Clearly, European policy makers have got religion about saving the euro. Expect some kind of announcement soon. According to Austrian daily Der Standard, Italy is to...
An Italian exit scenario
This post originally appeared on Credit Writedowns Editorial note: this article is neither a policy recommendation or a prediction. Rather, this articles looks to outline one potential outcome of the current policy choices in the European sovereign debt crisis, building upon the discussion from three recent articles “Deflationary crisis responses”, “Predicting the future of policy...
Marshall Auerback: The more you deflate, the bigger the debt problem gets
Cross-posted from Credit Writedowns Marshall Auerback was on Fox Business last week talking about the European sovereign debt crisis. He said he is very concerned not just about the national solvency problem in the euro zone but also about the debt deflationary policy remedies now being implemented across the whole of the euro zone. He...
Italian default scenarios
Cross-posted from Credit Writedowns The most important debate of our lifetimes is now ongoing. For many, the answer will be existential. First, the question: Should the ECB “write the check’ for the euro area national governments? In thinking about the answer to this all-important question, I prefer to shift the focus by changing the verb...
The Italian Job
Cross-posted from Credit Writedowns. Follow me on Twitter at edwardnh for more credit crisis coverage. Disclaimer: This piece on the impact of Italy’s potential insolvency on the sovereign debt crisis is not an advocacy piece. It is supposed to be an actionable prediction of what I see as likely to occur. That said, see link...
Questioning Italy’s solvency means ECB intervention
Cross-posted from Credit Writedowns. Follow me on Twitter at edwardnh for more credit crisis coverage. Disclaimer: This piece on the impact of Italy’s potential insolvency on the sovereign debt crisis is not an advocacy piece. It is supposed to be an actionable prediction of what I see as likely to occur. Last week we witnessed...
The eurozone vendor financing scheme
Cross-posted from Credit Writedowns. Follow me on Twitter at edwardnh for more credit crisis coverage. Here’s an interpretation of the euro zone I have been meaning to discuss. I touched on it in the update to my post on how austerity in Europe works. In a fixed exchange rate environment like the euro area, you...
Chinese bubble bursting: A probable non-event
By Philip Pilkington, a journalist and writer living in Dublin, Ireland In waking a tiger, use a long stick. – Mao Tse-tung Well, it looks like it could finally be happening. The Chinese housing bubble could well be bursting right before our eyes. The bubble has long been present for all to see, with news...
