Little Things are Important
One of the problems with many politicians, journalists, financial analysts, economists, etc., is that they don’t think systematically. Go back to late 2006, when I wrote my piece Wrecking Ball Looms for Big Housing Spec, which was regarding the coming subprime crisis. (Note: my editor often retitled my pieces; my original title was more circumspect.) ...
Book Review: The Alpha Masters
This book has just been released. I got an early copy. The book is interesting enough that I would like to do a Q&A with the author, and I have contacted the PR flack to do so. To the review: Would you like to understand the mindsets of a variety of successful hedge fund...
Post 1800
So, what do I write about at the Aleph Blog? I write about a lot of things. That’s a strength, and a weakness. A weakness, because not everyone cares about a lot of things and if I shift to cover an area that is unusual, readers may not care. It’s a strength, in the same...
Sorted Weekly Tweets
Eurozone If Greece Quits Euro, Its Ruin Will Be Pointless http://t.co/2DotggME Suggests Greece will face more pain if leaves E-zone than stays $$ May 17, 2012 Experts Try to Chart Path for Exit From Currency http://t.co/dtIAoo3g Let’s see, where is that manual for unscrambling eggs? Mmm… $$ May 17, 2012 On the E-zone: the...
In Defense of Nothing
Two years ago, I was at a board meeting for a nonprofit that I serve, and during a break, one of the older gentlemen made a statement that the big problem with America is that we don’t make anything anymore. I suggested to him that many services enhance and replace the need for some goods....
Don’t Become the Market
It was late 1993, and I knew that we could make a lot of money if I sold floating-rate Guaranteed Investment Contracts. Let me quote an earlier piece: My goal as an actuarial businessman was to make profits with modest risk for my ultimate owners, who were the mutual policyholders. Once I faced a situation...
Elderly Poor?
There will be elderly poor. Look at page 26 of this PDF. I interpret those that don’t know or declined as being well below $50K in assets. That means 60% of those reaching “retirement age” will have less than two years income stored up. That said I feel more sorry for younger workers who have...
Skewed Incentives
May is a tough month for me, because I have to submit reports for the nonprofits that I work with, and this year is worse, because I have a moderate injury that I need to see a doctor about, but can’t until next week, because of the schedule. But I do want to say a...
Crossroads
This is a confusing time: Lousy fiscal policy — way too much borrowing by the government Lousy monetary policy — way too much expansion of the monetary base, and for little good reason, and funding the deficits of the government as a result… Negative real interest rates on Treasuries 15 years out; that is financial...
Simple Stock Valuation
I appreciate Eddy Elfenbein. He comes up with ideas that make me say, “Huh. Interesting. Let’s test that.” His recent article, World’s Simplest Stock Valuation Measure, put forth the idea that: Growth Rate/2 + 8 = PE Ratio Cool, reminds me of my 1993 formula for value investing: Price per share < Tangible Book per...
Sorted Weekly Tweets
Eurozone Danske Bank’s Patience With Moody’s Evaporates http://t.co/eGbf3kV5 Questions over willingness of Denmark to provide support in a crisis. May 11, 2012 CIC Stops Buying Europe Government Debt on Crisis Concern http://t.co/dljk9Tau Overblown; China will return to funding the Eurozone $$ May 10, 2012 Greeks May Hold $510 Billion Trump Card in Renegotiation http://t.co/P7U4LSpG...
Book Review: The Little Book of Emerging Markets
This book is written by one of the foremost stock investors in emerging markets, Mark Mobius. This is a short book that has little to no math in it, and few graphs. It can be read in 2-3 hours. The edge that this book will give you is understanding the limitations of emerging market investing. ...
