Thinking the Unthinkable
Thinking the Unthinkable David R. Kotok May 16, 2012 Chapter two of our old book on Europe outlined the benefits of convergence. Charts and data displayed the boost to growth that occurs when interest rates coalesce at a lower level and when credit spreads narrow. The multiplier effect is huge. Europe experienced it during...
Jamie Dimon & Greece: Imperfect Together
Jamie Dimon & Greece: Imperfect Together David R. Kotok May 13, 2012 “In hindsight, the new strategy was flawed, complex, poorly reviewed, poorly executed, and poorly monitored.” Jamie Dimon Janet Tavakoli speaks plainly. See her column in the Huffington Post (May 12). Here is a sample: “Jamie Dimon’s problem as...
The Beveridge Curve
The Beveridge Curve David R. Kotok May 4, 2012 “I have a thousand things to do” –the reported last words of British economist William Beveridge, as he sat up in bed while still working on his eighth and only unfinished book, History of Prices. The classic eponymous Beveridge Curve “is...
Stocks and Shocks: what to do?
Stocks and Shocks: what to do? David R. Kotok April 29, 2012 How do we avoid walking into a “left hook” in the markets? That was the discussion this week during a client review. “Can’t you see them coming and avoid them?” he asked. Well maybe some folks can, but the issue of...
A Rejoinder to “I’m worried”
A Rejoinder to “I’m worried” David R. Kotok April 28, 2012 Note to readers. Yang Hu is the Director, Economics and Mortgage Market Analysis at Fannie Mae. He is also a serious student of history and a thoroughly skilled writer. He offered a rejoinder to my earlier commentary entitled “I’m worried.” That April 8 essay...
Kotok: Stock Market Outlook
Stock Market Outlook David R. Kotok, April 23, 2012 ~~~ At the quarter ending March 31, US annual GDP is estimated at $15.3 trillion. At quarter-end, the S&P 500 Index constituent companies had a combined market value of $12.7 trillion, or 83% of GDP. Many thanks to Ned Davis Research, who computes this for...
Sell in May? 9 Trillion Reasons to Say NO
Sell in May? 9 Trillion Reasons to Say NO April 14, 2012 David R. Kotok The old adage “Sell in May and go away” was good guidance for stock markets last year. The market peaked on April 29 and bottomed on October 3. For a detailed discussion of this period and the subsequent...
France at Risk
France at Risk April 11, 2012 Bill Witherell ~~~ This commentary was written by Bill Witherell, Cumberland’s Chief Global Economist. He joined Cumberland after years of experience at the OECD in Paris. His bio is found on Cumberland’s home page, www.cumber.com. He can be reached at Bill.Witherell@cumber.com. The French economy, the second largest in the...
Kotok: I’m Worried
I’m Worried David R. Kotok April 8, 2012 ~~~ A note to readers. This 2000-word commentary is a longer-term view; think in terms of years, not months or days. The essay is not in conflict with the fully invested position currently held at Cumberland. The words reflect my personal thinking only. Some of my colleagues...
Today’s Employment Report, also, Europe
Today’s Employment Report, also, Europe David R. Kotok April 6, 2012 ~~~ Some holiday-weekend observations in bullet form. 1. The Jobs report was a disappointment to markets and to forecasters. Many of the components were negative surprises. In fact, little in it was positive. Stock futures sold off immediately. What happens by Monday’s opening is...
Joe B., Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr. & Mike Dooley
Joe B., Oliver Wendell Holmes, Sr. & Mike Dooley April 1, 2012 David R. Kotok ~~~ Dear reader: My friend Joe B. has experienced some of the world’s exigencies. He thinks about them in the context of being a former Bostonian, and he said a few things at our last lunch together. His words caused...
Kotok: Back from Paris
Back from Paris March 29, 2012 David R. Kotok We are back from Paris. The head is filled with new info. For the publicly available portion of the conference, see the GIC website, www.interdependence.org. The remaining comments will be my personal “takeaways” from both public and private conversations. By Chatham House Rule and Jackson Hole...
