Midday Briefing for August 4th: Narrowing Range
Quick update from the airport: The major indexes are making higher price lows day over day, keeping us in an uptrend mode, but note the difficulty surmounting the 7/30 highs in NQ (above), as well as selling we've been seeing in the 1000 area for ES. ...
Identifying the NYSE TICK Environment and Stock Market Sentiment
Here we see the distribution of one-minute NYSE TICK readings thus far this morning. Recent posts have focused on TICK as a way of gauging intraday buying and selling sentiment.A quick and dirty way of assessing buying and selling pressure is to consi...
Morning Briefing for August 4th: In Yesterday’s Range
Going into today's trade, I'm still watching that ES 994 level from 7/30 to see if we stay above the prior several day trading range. I'm also watching to see if we can stay above the lows from yesterday's early trade. Thus far we're trading well bac...
Overtrading and Our Unrealistic Expectations
Many, many times, overtrading a market (i.e., placing trades when you lack an objective edge in the trade) begins with unrealistic expectations of the market. The most common mistake I see active traders making in the current market is that they are e...
Evening Briefing For August 3rd
* MARKET THEMES FROM MONDAY: Stocks opened strong, with the risk themes in gear: weak U.S. dollar, strong commodities, rising Treasury rates. After consolidating near Thursday's price highs, consistent buying pressure led to a slow rise through mos...
NYSE TICK and Buying Sentiment: An Alternate View
The recent post took a look at today's Cumulative TICK, which takes each one-minute average TICK reading and creates a cumulative sum, like an advance-decline line. Above we see a different view of TICK, based on a 10-minute moving average of TICK rea...
Stock Market Sentiment and Cumulative NYSE TICK
With the weak U.S. dollar, strong commodities, and firmness in Treasury yields, there has been a persistent bid to stocks through the day. Nearly 2000 more issues are advancing than declining, but for me one of the best sentiment tells has been the Cu...
Midday Update: Market Crosscurrents
Note how we've been trading in a range in ES (top chart), oscillating above and below the 994 level that represents the high from 7/30 and the high from the prior multiday range. While the weak dollar and rising commodities, as well as rising yields, ...
Thinking About Morning Market Action: Framing Trading Ideas
Let's take a look at Twitter comments thus far this AM. Note how observation of a fly in the bull ointment began with an observation of NQ weakness before the open; open minded watching of how we traded around the open price (and 7/30 high price); and...
Morning Briefing for August 3rd: Marching Toward 1000?
Here's a quick look at how we're setting up for today's stock market open. Note that we were in a multi-day trading range from July 23rd through 29th before vaulting higher on the 30th and starting a new trading range. We're now peeking above the Jul...
Indicator Update for August 3rd
The recent sector review found that most of the S&P 500 sectors continue to trade in short-term uptrends. The indicators support this bullish view, as we see significant positive momentum among stocks (top chart) and new 20-day highs greatly outnu...
Evening Briefing for August 2nd
* MARKET THEMES FROM FRIDAY: Friday saw range bound trade consolidating the strength that we saw on Thursday. Low readings for both the Demand and Supply indicators suggest a range environment going into Monday's trade, with important support at Fri...
