The All-January Barometer Is No Better Than Assuming The Stock Market Will Go Up Every Calendar Year
Consistent with their bullish mood and histrionic reporting, CNBC talking heads are touting that the stock market’s performance in just ended January was the best in 15 years and that when it has been up, the rest of the year has been up 87% of the time. The statistical truth is that January’s performance has...
The U.S. And Global Stock Markets Have Not Yet Topped Out
Trend-followers are becoming increasingly bullish because the stock market’s recent uptrend(s) continue to lengthen beyond their expectations. While these trends are clearly unsustainable and increasingly bearish on a contrarian basis, the bullish consensus is not likely at a cyclical turning point extreme – yet. Very Short Term (days) and Short Term (weeks) At Thursday morning’s...
Initial Unemployment Claims Confirm Unfinished Market Rally
In addition to other bullish coincident economic data reported yesterday, initial unemployment claims, which are a leading economic indicator, are especially noteworthy. They are a good precusor to the popularly-followed payroll, or jobs, report, a coincident economic indicator. The December data will be reported in 13 trading days on Jan 6, just two days after...
The yen, the dollar and the yuan
Another step in the global trade war/currency crisis and U.S. dollar devaluation that we’ve been forecasting for the past decade. This Japan/China accord is the Asian trading bloc predictably coming together in the incipient global trade war. But the incipient global equity Supercycle Bear Market will be accompanied with a rising“safe-haven” status U.S. dollar –...
Year-end Holiday Season Rallies + Some Bullish Indicators
In addition to other bullish coincident economic data reported yesterday, initial unemployment claims, which are a leading economic indicator, are especially noteworthy. They are a good precusor to the popularly-followed payroll, or jobs, report, a coincident economic indicator. The December data will be reported in 14 trading days on Jan 6, just two days after...
We Expect The Stock Market To Bottom This Week & Then Rally For A Combination Of Technical And Fundamental Reasons
November 27, 2011: The short term (weeks) bullish setup of several technical patterns, which are annotated in the first chart below is consistent with: (a) the labor market leading the reacceleration in the U.S. economic recovery (see the charts and table of unemployment claims further below) as measured by the U.S. core business cycle, using...
Important News Events Are Usually Beyond Conventional Technical Analysis
News events have a range of risk and uncertainty in their essence: a. Some news events are reasonably known in advance if you do your homework, like results in quarterly GDP reports. In these cases, conventional technical analysis can be of some, if not a lot of, benefit in discerning the outcomes and, even more...
Our Supercycle Oscillator Updated
The following charts show that as long as a third and final Supercycle Bear Market is developing, as we’ve repeatedly forewarned, regardless of its actual path, or its price-time geometry, our Supercycle Oscillator (defined in the legends of the charts) will reach the mean-reversion target area that we’ve previously reported, which is sufficient to end...
Hopefully you weren’t whipsawed
(All the following charts, tables and schematics are pictures that can be easily enlarged by clicking on one of the two right-hand corners and dragging the little circle.) Nearly every equity money manager, and even most hedge funds, have losses since the May 2 stock market high. So, of course, they would have been better...
What January Effect?
What we call the All-January Barometer* has had six false positives since 1940, where January was up, but the rest of the year was down. If dividends are considered, then there were five false positives since from February through December of 1947 the U.S. stock market experienced a positive total return. Last year, 2010, was...
SPX Top ?
For the past 42 years, Bob Bronson has applied a disciplined, analytical approach to understanding and forecasting capital markets and advising investment advisors. Through his rigorous analysis of capital markets and economic data and his background in mathematics and financial economics, he has developed a number of unique investment concepts and refined portfolio-management techniques that...
